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2017年GRE寫作解析二
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
北京新東方 萬煒
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
步驟：夏天人口增多 + 摩托車是主要交通工具 → 到了夏天摩托車引起的事故會增多
假設：夏天增多的人口會造成嚴重的摩托車問題
反例：城市交通秩序好，摩托車司機都很職業(yè)，很守規(guī)矩，歷年來都沒出什么事故
補充證據(jù)：往年夏天的摩托車事故率
步驟：SV執(zhí)行了摩托車禁令 + 之后SV的事故減少50% → 是禁令減少的事故
假設：沒有它因
反例：道路拓寬;司機培訓更嚴格;交通法規(guī)更嚴格;警察多了
補充證據(jù)：……
步驟：SV成功 → BI成功
假設：兩城的租賃摩托車都是主要摩托車的來源;過去兩城摩托車都能夠租出去
反例：SV的摩托車都是租的，但是BI的摩托車都是私家的;SV的都租出去了，但是BI的本來就租不到每天25輛
補充證據(jù)：兩城摩托車的主要來源;既往摩托車每天實際租賃量
步驟：BI成功減少夏天的事故→全年事故的減少
假設：夏天的事故是全年事故的主要來源
反例：夏天路況好，人多不是事故的來源。全年事故主要來源于冬天路面結冰。而冬天車輛沒減少，所以事故不會減少50%
證據(jù)：全年的事故數(shù)量變化表。
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