英語(yǔ)資源頻道為大家整理的china daily 雙語(yǔ)新聞：鬼城拯救中國(guó)，供大家閱讀參考。
For China bears, the empty ghost cities§ that dot the Chinese landscape stand as concrete evidence that economic doom is just around the corner.
在看空中國(guó)的人看來，各地空空如也的“鬼城”是一種實(shí)實(shí)在在的證據(jù)，表明經(jīng)濟(jì)末日即將到來。
In the aftermath of a construction frenzy that lifted China out of the Great Recession, Western hedge fund managers set off on trips to places like Ordos in Inner Mongolia to view the eerie phenomenon and spooked themselves into believing that a massive oversupply of real estate meant a Chinese economic collapse was inevitable.
在大規(guī)模建設(shè)浪潮帶動(dòng)中國(guó)走出“大衰退”之后，西方對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理開始前往內(nèi)蒙古鄂爾多斯等地去查看上述怪異景象。他們嚇壞了，覺得房地產(chǎn)供給嚴(yán)重過剩，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰不可避免。
What happened? Well, housing prices and sales volumes have been steadily rebounding, to the point where the government is now contemplating new cooling measures. So much for the epic oversupply that bears predicted would wipe out growth.
這是怎么回事?房?jī)r(jià)和銷量已經(jīng)在穩(wěn)步反彈，以至于政府都在考慮要不要出臺(tái)新的降溫措施。看空者預(yù)計(jì)將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)歸零的嚴(yán)重過剩不過如此。
※Hurray for Ghost Cities,§ writes the economist and veteran China-watcher Jonathan Anderson in a recent note.
“鬼城萬(wàn)歲!”經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、資深中國(guó)觀察家安德森(Jonathan Anderson)在最近的一篇報(bào)告中這么寫道。
The former UBS analyst, now with the Emerging Advisors Group, isn*t a cheerleader for senseless real estate projects. His point is that by investing in ※ghost cities§ to underpin growth, China saved itself from even more unwise overinvestment in areas that could have done lasting damage to the economy, such as manufacturing.
曾在瑞銀(UBS)做分析師、現(xiàn)供職于Emerging Advisors Group的安德森并不是在公開支持盲目的房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目。他要說的是，通過投資“鬼城”來支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，中國(guó)得以避免在制造業(yè)等其他領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行更不明智的過度投資;假如是這些領(lǐng)域投資過剩，恐怕早已對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了持久的損害。
Even though China has been investing almost 50% of GDP for the past few years, Mr. Anderson doesn*t see much evidence that it*s resulted in widespread industrial overcapacity. He notes that industrial profits have been picking up along with sales, suggesting that manufacturers still have plenty of pricing power. And, in contrast to the situation a decade ago when the last credit bubble burst, China isn*t saddled with a massive glut of industrial commodities that it*s trying to dump on the rest of the world. Steel exports, for example, have increased only modestly this time around.
安德森認(rèn)為，雖然過去五年中國(guó)的投資規(guī)模接近GDP的一半，但并沒有多少證據(jù)表明這種投資規(guī)模導(dǎo)致工業(yè)大范圍產(chǎn)能過剩。他指出，工業(yè)利潤(rùn)一直在伴隨銷售額的上升而上升，說明制造企業(yè)仍有很大的定價(jià)權(quán)。另外，和10年前上次信貸泡沫破裂時(shí)的情形不同，中國(guó)目前沒有積壓大量過剩的工業(yè)大宗商品要向其他國(guó)家傾銷。鋼鐵出口現(xiàn)在就只是小幅增長(zhǎng)。
Mr. Anderson defines ※ghost cities§ as a relatively narrow slice of investment, conducted mainly by local governments, in urban infrastructure and certain types of construction, notably subsidized ※social housing§ units rather than commercial housing. They*ve certainly been a black hole, he says, but a hole that has emptied largely into the equally dark vaults of China*s state-owned banks, where bad debts can remain buried for a long time.
安德森將“鬼城”定義為投資總額當(dāng)中相對(duì)較小的一塊，主要由地方政府推動(dòng)，體現(xiàn)為城鎮(zhèn)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和某些特定類型的建設(shè)項(xiàng)目，特別是政府補(bǔ)貼的“保障房”而非商品房。他說，這些投資當(dāng)然是一個(gè)黑洞，但主要是流向了中國(guó)國(guó)有銀行同樣黑的金庫(kù)，壞賬可以在里面長(zhǎng)時(shí)間埋藏。
※Lesson learned: If you*re going to waste capital best to waste it completely, where it will do the least damage to everyone else,§ writes Mr. Anderson.
安德森寫道，這給人的啟發(fā)是，如果你要浪費(fèi)資本，是全部浪費(fèi)，這樣對(duì)其他所有人的損害最小。
Or, to put it another way, he offers: ※Why truly crap investment projects help &save* China.§
換句話說就是，“真正垃圾的投資項(xiàng)目為什么有助于‘拯救’中國(guó)”。