Current Challenges and Risks
目前的挑戰(zhàn)和風險
The world economy is going through the most challenging economic and financial stress in generations.
世界經(jīng)濟正在經(jīng)歷多年來挑戰(zhàn)性的經(jīng)濟和財政壓力。
The International Monetary Fund predicts that the world economy will shrink this year for the first time in more than six decades. The collapse of world trade is likely to be the worst since the end of World War II. The lost output, compared to the world economy's potential growth in a normal year, could be between three and four trillion dollars.
國際貨幣基金組織預(yù)測，今年世界經(jīng)濟將出現(xiàn)60多年來的首次萎縮。世界貿(mào)易的衰退很可能是自第二次世界大戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以來最嚴重的。與正常年份世界經(jīng)濟的潛在增長率相比，產(chǎn)出損失可達到3至4萬億美元。
In the face of this challenge, China and the United States are working together to help shape a strong global strategy to contain the crisis and to lay the foundation for recovery. And these efforts, the combined effect of forceful policy actions here in China, in the United States, and in other major economies, have helped slow the pace of deterioration in growth, repair the financial system, and improve confidence.
面對這一挑戰(zhàn)，中國和美國共同努力，幫助形成一個強有力的全球戰(zhàn)略，遏制危機，為經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇奠定基礎(chǔ)。這些努力，以及中國、美國和其他主要經(jīng)濟體所采取的強有力政策行動的綜合效應(yīng)，已幫助減緩增長的惡化速度，修復(fù)金融系統(tǒng)和提升信心。
In fact, what distinguishes the current crisis is not just its global scale and its acute severity, but the size and speed of the global response.
事實上，當前危機與以往的區(qū)別，不僅在于其全球規(guī)模及嚴重程度，還在于全球反應(yīng)的范圍和速度。
At the G-20 Leaders meeting in London in April, we agreed on an unprecedented program of coordinated policy actions to support growth, to stabilize and repair the financial system, to restore the flow of credit essential for trade and investment, to mobilize financial resources for emerging market economies through the international financial institutions, and to keep markets open for trade and investment.
在4月份的20國集團領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人倫敦會議上，我們商定了一個前所未有的協(xié)調(diào)的政策行動計劃，以支持經(jīng)濟增長，穩(wěn)定和修復(fù)金融體系，恢復(fù)對貿(mào)易和投資至關(guān)重要的信貸流動，通過國際金融機構(gòu)來為新興市場經(jīng)濟體調(diào)動財政資源，并保持貿(mào)易和投資市場的開放。
That historic accord on a strategy for recovery was made possible in part by the policy actions already begun in China and the United States.
這項針對經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇戰(zhàn)略的歷史性協(xié)定之所以達成，部分取決于中國和美國已經(jīng)出臺的政策行動。
China moved quickly as the crisis intensified with a very forceful program of investments and financial measures to strengthen domestic demand.
在危機加劇時，中國迅速出臺了強有力的增強國內(nèi)需求的投資和金融措施計劃。
In the United States, in the first weeks of the new Administration, we put in place a comprehensive program of tax incentives and investments – the largest peace time recovery effort since World War II - to help arrest the sharp fall in private demand. Alongside these fiscal measures, we acted to ease the housing crisis. And we have put in place a series of initiatives to bring more capital into the banking system and to restart the credit markets.
在美國，新政府上任的第一周，我們就建立了一個全面的稅收優(yōu)惠和投資計劃──第二次世界大戰(zhàn)以來和平時期的恢復(fù)努力，以幫助遏制私人需求的急劇下降。除了這些財政措施，我們還采取行動減輕住房危機。我們出臺了一系列舉措，使更多的資金進入銀行系統(tǒng)，并重新啟動信貸市場。
These actions have been reinforced by similar actions in countries around the world.
這些舉措在世界各國采取類似舉措之后得到了加強。
In contrast to the global crisis of the 1930s and to the major economic crises of the postwar period, the leaders of the world acted together. They acted quickly. They took steps to provide assistance to the most vulnerable economies, even as they faced exceptional financial needs at home. They worked to keep their markets open, rather than retreating into self-defeating measures of discrimination and protection.
與30年代的全球危機以及戰(zhàn)后各個主要經(jīng)濟危機相比，世界各國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人這次采取了聯(lián)合行動。他們行動相對迅速。他們采取措施向最脆弱的經(jīng)濟體提供援助，盡管他們自身的國家也面臨著特殊的金融需求。他們致力于繼續(xù)開放市場，而不是退回到自我擊敗的歧視和保護措施中去。
And they have committed to make sure this program of initiatives is sustained until the foundation for recovery is firmly established, a commitment the IMF will monitor closely, and that we will be able to evaluate together when the G-20 Leaders meet again in the United States this fall.
他們承諾確保這一動議計劃維持到復(fù)蘇基礎(chǔ)的牢固確立，而國際貨幣基金組織將密切監(jiān)測此承諾，這樣我們將能夠在20國集團領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人今年秋天在美國再次會晤時一起來評估。
We are starting to see some initial signs of improvement. The global recession seems to be losing force. In the United States, the pace of decline in economic activity has slowed. Households are saving more, but consumer confidence has improved, and spending is starting to recover. House prices are falling at a slower pace and the inventory of unsold homes has come down significantly. Orders for goods and services are somewhat stronger. The pace of deterioration in the labor market has slowed, and new claims for unemployment insurance have started to come down a bit.
我們開始看到一些改善的初步跡象。全球經(jīng)濟衰退似乎失去力量。在美國，經(jīng)濟活動下跌步伐已經(jīng)放緩。家庭節(jié)省更多，但消費者信心有所改善，消費已開始恢復(fù)。房屋價格的下降正在放緩，未售出房屋的庫存已經(jīng)大幅下降。商品和服務(wù)的訂單有所提升。勞動力市場的惡化速度已經(jīng)放緩，新申請失業(yè)保險的人數(shù)已開始有所下降。
The financial system is starting to heal. The clarity and disclosure provided by our capital assessment of major U.S. banks has helped improve market confidence in them, making it possible for banks that needed capital to raise it from private investors and to borrow without guarantees. The securities markets, including the asset backed securities markets that essentially stopped functioning late last year, have started to come back. The cost of credit has fallen substantially for businesses and for families as spreads and risk premia have narrowed.
金融體系已開始恢復(fù)。我們對美國主要銀行的資本評估報告中所提供的澄清和披露信息，幫助提振信心，使需要資本的銀行可以向私人投資者融資，借款時無需擔保。證券市場，包括去年年底已基本停止運轉(zhuǎn)的資產(chǎn)抵押證券市場已經(jīng)開始恢復(fù)。企業(yè)和家庭的信貸成本已大幅度下降，因為利差和風險溢價已經(jīng)縮小。
These are important signs of stability, and assurance that we will succeed in averting financial collapse and global deflation, but they represent only the first steps in laying the foundation for recovery. The process of repair and adjustment is going to take time.
這些都是重要的穩(wěn)定跡象，對我們將成功避免金融崩潰和全球性通貨緊縮的保證，但它們只是為經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇奠定基礎(chǔ)的第一步。修復(fù)和調(diào)整的過程還需時日。
China, despite your own manifest challenges as a developing country, you are in an enviably strong position. But in most economies, the recession is still powerful and dangerous. Business and households in the United States, as in many countries, are still experiencing the most challenging economic and financial pressures in decades.
中國作為一個發(fā)展中國家盡管有你們自己的明顯挑戰(zhàn)，但你們處在一個令人羨慕的強勢地位。而在世界大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟體中，經(jīng)濟衰退仍然嚴峻而危險。美國與許多國家一樣，企業(yè)和家庭正在經(jīng)歷幾十年來挑戰(zhàn)性的經(jīng)濟和財政壓力。
The plant closures, and company restructurings that the recession is causing are painful, and this process is not yet over. The fallout from these events has been brutally indiscriminant, affecting those with little or no responsibility for the events that now buffet them, as well as on some who played key roles in bringing about our troubles.
The extent of the damage to financial systems entails significant risk that the supply of credit will be constrained for some time. The constraints on banks in many major economies will make it hard for them to compensate fully for the damage done to the basic machinery of the securitization markets, including the loss of confidence in credit ratings. After a long period where financial institutions took on too much risk, we still face the possibility that banks and investors may take too little risk, even as the underlying economic conditions start to improve.
金融系統(tǒng)的損害程度導(dǎo)致了重大的風險，以至信貸供應(yīng)將會在一段時間內(nèi)受到限制。許多主要經(jīng)濟體對銀行的限制將使他們很難完全補償基本的證券化市場機制所遭受的損害，包括對信貸評級喪失信心。在經(jīng)歷了漫長的時期金融機構(gòu)承擔太多風險后，我們?nèi)匀幻媾R的可能是，即使根本經(jīng)濟條件開始改善，銀行和投資者可能只愿承擔太少風險。
And, after a long period of falling saving and substantial growth in household borrowing relative to GDP, consumer spending in the United States will be restrained for some time relative to what is typically the case in recoveries.
經(jīng)過長期的相對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的儲蓄下降和家庭借貸大幅度增長，美國的消費者支出，相對于經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇時期來說，將在一段時間內(nèi)受到限制。
These are necessary adjustments. They will entail a longer, slower process of recovery, with a very different pattern of future growth across countries than we have seen in the past several recoveries.
這些都是必要的調(diào)整。他們將需要更長的、較慢的復(fù)蘇過程，在各國以一種不同以往的未來增長模式。