China's economy seen growing 9.5 pct in 2007
China'a economic growth is set to slow to 9.5 percent next year, according to forcast.
China's economic growth is set to slow to 9.5 percent next year, said the State Information Centre, a research institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner.
The centre, which made the forecast in a report published by the official China Securities Journal on Monday, has forecast China's gross domestic product will rise 10.5 percent in 2006.
China's GDP has grown 10 percent or more every year since 2003.
The centre cited both domestic and global reasons.
"The world economy is likely to grow steadily or slow slightly, with average global oil prices slipping from 2006. Domestic cooling steps will be implemented and further fine tuning is expected to continue," it said.
"Under these conditions, GDP will increase by 9.5 percent, one percentage point slower than in 2006, with a potential growth range between 8 percent and 10 percent," it said.
In 2007, growth in fixed asset investment will drop 6.5 percentage points to 20 percent, while the consumer price index (CPI) is set to rise about 2 percent, the centre predicted.
Growth in exports will slow by nearly 10 percentage points to 15 percent while import growth will fall by 7.5 percentage points to 14 percent, it said. China's trade surplus is projected at around $176.9 billion in 2007.
The centre proposed that growth in broad M2 money supply should be limited to 16 percent, with new loans totalling 3 trillion yuan ($381 billion) and particularly strict controls on medium- and long-term lending. ($1=7.8645 Yuan)
據(jù)國(guó)家發(fā)改委下屬研究所國(guó)家信息中心預(yù)測(cè)，2007年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度將降至9.5％。
國(guó)家信息中心的這一預(yù)測(cè)研究報(bào)告在本周一的《中國(guó)證券報(bào)》上發(fā)表。據(jù)估計(jì)，今年中國(guó)的GDP總量將增長(zhǎng)10.5％。
從2003年以來，中國(guó)每年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率都在10％以上。
國(guó)家信息中心從國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際兩方面對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析：
“隨著今年的國(guó)際油價(jià)逐漸下滑，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)可能將保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)或有所減慢。此外，我國(guó)也將采取進(jìn)一步措施，防止經(jīng)濟(jì)過快增長(zhǎng)?！?BR> “在這種背景下，明年中國(guó)的GDP增長(zhǎng)率將比今年低1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，為9.5％。經(jīng)濟(jì)漲幅的變動(dòng)范圍預(yù)計(jì)在8％至10％之間。”
據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2007年中國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資的增速將下降6.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，跌至20％；消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)將上漲2％。
出口和進(jìn)口的增長(zhǎng)速度將分別下跌近10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)和7.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，降至15％和14％。此外，2007年的貿(mào)易順差預(yù)計(jì)在1769億左右。
國(guó)家信息中心提出，2007年我國(guó)廣義貨幣供給的增幅應(yīng)控制在16％，新貸款總額不應(yīng)超過3萬億，尤其要嚴(yán)格控制中長(zhǎng)期貸款。
China'a economic growth is set to slow to 9.5 percent next year, according to forcast.
China's economic growth is set to slow to 9.5 percent next year, said the State Information Centre, a research institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner.
The centre, which made the forecast in a report published by the official China Securities Journal on Monday, has forecast China's gross domestic product will rise 10.5 percent in 2006.
China's GDP has grown 10 percent or more every year since 2003.
The centre cited both domestic and global reasons.
"The world economy is likely to grow steadily or slow slightly, with average global oil prices slipping from 2006. Domestic cooling steps will be implemented and further fine tuning is expected to continue," it said.
"Under these conditions, GDP will increase by 9.5 percent, one percentage point slower than in 2006, with a potential growth range between 8 percent and 10 percent," it said.
In 2007, growth in fixed asset investment will drop 6.5 percentage points to 20 percent, while the consumer price index (CPI) is set to rise about 2 percent, the centre predicted.
Growth in exports will slow by nearly 10 percentage points to 15 percent while import growth will fall by 7.5 percentage points to 14 percent, it said. China's trade surplus is projected at around $176.9 billion in 2007.
The centre proposed that growth in broad M2 money supply should be limited to 16 percent, with new loans totalling 3 trillion yuan ($381 billion) and particularly strict controls on medium- and long-term lending. ($1=7.8645 Yuan)
據(jù)國(guó)家發(fā)改委下屬研究所國(guó)家信息中心預(yù)測(cè)，2007年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度將降至9.5％。
國(guó)家信息中心的這一預(yù)測(cè)研究報(bào)告在本周一的《中國(guó)證券報(bào)》上發(fā)表。據(jù)估計(jì)，今年中國(guó)的GDP總量將增長(zhǎng)10.5％。
從2003年以來，中國(guó)每年的GDP增長(zhǎng)率都在10％以上。
國(guó)家信息中心從國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際兩方面對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析：
“隨著今年的國(guó)際油價(jià)逐漸下滑，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)可能將保持穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)或有所減慢。此外，我國(guó)也將采取進(jìn)一步措施，防止經(jīng)濟(jì)過快增長(zhǎng)?！?BR> “在這種背景下，明年中國(guó)的GDP增長(zhǎng)率將比今年低1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，為9.5％。經(jīng)濟(jì)漲幅的變動(dòng)范圍預(yù)計(jì)在8％至10％之間。”
據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2007年中國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資的增速將下降6.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，跌至20％；消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)將上漲2％。
出口和進(jìn)口的增長(zhǎng)速度將分別下跌近10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)和7.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，降至15％和14％。此外，2007年的貿(mào)易順差預(yù)計(jì)在1769億左右。
國(guó)家信息中心提出，2007年我國(guó)廣義貨幣供給的增幅應(yīng)控制在16％，新貸款總額不應(yīng)超過3萬億，尤其要嚴(yán)格控制中長(zhǎng)期貸款。