inflation can hurt the dollar – the dollar cannot hurt inflation
通貨膨脹會使美元受到影響
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美元不會影響通貨膨脹
摘要
the fed has signalled that they are worried about inflation whilst the market seems to be concerned with a growth slowdown. we explore how the dollar may react to a perceived inflation threat. we argue that it may mean us
short rates
continue to rise and although this may support the dollar in the short term, once growth truly starts to slow it will become apparent that rates have risen too far
and the market will start to discount rate cuts. this point in time will herald another wave of dollar weakness.
in addition, a perceived inflation threat begs the question of whether the fed will want a stronger dollar in its quest to squeeze out any price pressures. our analysis shows the link between the dollar and the inflation process is largely immaterial. in conclusion it is the dollar that is at the mercy of inflation (or a perceived inflation threat), inflation on the other hand is relatively unaffected by fluctuations in the dollar.
美聯(lián)儲表示他們擔(dān)憂通貨膨脹，同時也擔(dān)心市場增長速度會有所下降。
我們研究美元會對通貨膨脹作何反應(yīng)。我們認為美元短期利率會繼續(xù)上升，盡管這在短期會對美元有利，但一旦增長開始放緩，表面上看利率已經(jīng)上升太高，市場貼現(xiàn)率將下降。這預(yù)示著又一波美元疲軟。
我們的分析是：美元和通貨膨脹進程之間的關(guān)系很大程度上是非實質(zhì)性的。美元會受到通貨膨脹的影響，然而美元的波動不會影響通貨膨脹。
the yen carry trade – a currency, not interest rate, story (pg 9)
as the end of japan’s zero rate policy drifts closer the level of market uncertainty also increases. at the very least, following the end of quantitative easing, monetary policy communication becomes more challenging. the boj’s new policy framework is an attempt to be transparent, flexible and forward looking. while we remain bullish on the yen, these uncertainties may mean that jpy struggles to rally until we see some further clarity on the policy front. at 50 pips per month, the negative carry on a short usd-jpy position is still significant. beyond questions about the timing and conduct of policy, the impending end of zirp has brought the yen carry trade to be a significant focus for central banks, international monitoring agencies and the market.
日元攜帶交易
–
是流通，而不是利率
日本零利率政策的終結(jié)積聚了市場不確定性的水平。至少，隨著貨幣政策的放松，貨幣政策的交流變得更有挑戰(zhàn)性。日本央行的新政策匡架試圖變得透明，靈活和具有前瞻性。直至我們更進一步了解政策方面，才能判定日元將持續(xù)看漲。
賣美元/買日元的負利率差是每月50點差。
除了政策的時間和操作問題之外，零利率政策的漸漸終結(jié)也使日元攜帶交易成了中央銀行，國際監(jiān)管處和市場重要的焦點
通貨膨脹會使美元受到影響
----
美元不會影響通貨膨脹
摘要
the fed has signalled that they are worried about inflation whilst the market seems to be concerned with a growth slowdown. we explore how the dollar may react to a perceived inflation threat. we argue that it may mean us
short rates
continue to rise and although this may support the dollar in the short term, once growth truly starts to slow it will become apparent that rates have risen too far
and the market will start to discount rate cuts. this point in time will herald another wave of dollar weakness.
in addition, a perceived inflation threat begs the question of whether the fed will want a stronger dollar in its quest to squeeze out any price pressures. our analysis shows the link between the dollar and the inflation process is largely immaterial. in conclusion it is the dollar that is at the mercy of inflation (or a perceived inflation threat), inflation on the other hand is relatively unaffected by fluctuations in the dollar.
美聯(lián)儲表示他們擔(dān)憂通貨膨脹，同時也擔(dān)心市場增長速度會有所下降。
我們研究美元會對通貨膨脹作何反應(yīng)。我們認為美元短期利率會繼續(xù)上升，盡管這在短期會對美元有利，但一旦增長開始放緩，表面上看利率已經(jīng)上升太高，市場貼現(xiàn)率將下降。這預(yù)示著又一波美元疲軟。
我們的分析是：美元和通貨膨脹進程之間的關(guān)系很大程度上是非實質(zhì)性的。美元會受到通貨膨脹的影響，然而美元的波動不會影響通貨膨脹。
the yen carry trade – a currency, not interest rate, story (pg 9)
as the end of japan’s zero rate policy drifts closer the level of market uncertainty also increases. at the very least, following the end of quantitative easing, monetary policy communication becomes more challenging. the boj’s new policy framework is an attempt to be transparent, flexible and forward looking. while we remain bullish on the yen, these uncertainties may mean that jpy struggles to rally until we see some further clarity on the policy front. at 50 pips per month, the negative carry on a short usd-jpy position is still significant. beyond questions about the timing and conduct of policy, the impending end of zirp has brought the yen carry trade to be a significant focus for central banks, international monitoring agencies and the market.
日元攜帶交易
–
是流通，而不是利率
日本零利率政策的終結(jié)積聚了市場不確定性的水平。至少，隨著貨幣政策的放松，貨幣政策的交流變得更有挑戰(zhàn)性。日本央行的新政策匡架試圖變得透明，靈活和具有前瞻性。直至我們更進一步了解政策方面，才能判定日元將持續(xù)看漲。
賣美元/買日元的負利率差是每月50點差。
除了政策的時間和操作問題之外，零利率政策的漸漸終結(jié)也使日元攜帶交易成了中央銀行，國際監(jiān)管處和市場重要的焦點