Following is the speech by the Chief Executive, Mr Tung Chee Hwa, at the plenary session of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2003 "Asia Searching for Win-Win: Development through Cooperation" on November 2, 2003:
Mr Chairman, excellencies, friends, ladies and gentlemen:
I'm very glad to have this opportunity to participate in this Forum with its theme, "Asia Searching for Win-Win Development Through Co-operation." It is a very timely and important theme.
I am glad for two reasons: first because the conditions are now ripe for us to realise the vision of Asia developing through co-operation. I believe it is only through such co-operation that we will ensure the continued prosperity of all our people. Second, I like to think that in Hong Kong, we embody the spirit of development through co-operation, and I would like to share with you some recent events that you might find useful in your discussions.
The vision of the peoples of Asia co-operating with each other for their mutual benefit and prosperity is not new. In 1955, in Bandung, the leaders of Asia and Africa, including the great giants of the time, Premier Zhou Enlai, President Sukarno and Prime Minister Nehru, met for the first time to discuss ways to work together to bring progress and prosperity to their peoples. I like to think that the meetings at Boao are in a way a continuation of this process.
The leaders at Bandung had a vision of co-operation, but the political, social and economic conditions of the time were not quite right. Asia was divided by the Cold War and the countries of the region were preoccupied with their own problems, the challenges of the post-colonial period, and recovering from the ravages of World War II. Therefore, it has not been possible to develop, to work together, to reach out to each other as much as we have wanted to.
But conditions have clearly changed. In earlier decades the economies of the region produced similar goods - agricultural and primary commodities and simple manufactured goods - such that it was not particularly worthwhile for the different economies to trade with each other. Neither did these economic activities generate enough surplus capital to invest in other countries. But in the last few decades, particularly in the last two, a great spurt of development has transformed the economies of the region. Our economies have diversified, and we now produce an entire range of goods and services that makes regional trade very viable. We are generating capital flows that make regional investment an important tool for growth.
Peace and stability have brought the countries of the region closer together and have made possible trade and investment, progress and prosperity. We have seen concerted efforts to link our regional economies together, as embodied in APEC, in ASEAN plus China, Japan and Korea - the so-called 10+3 process that we all hope will lead first to an Asian Free Trade Area, then an Asian Pacific Free Trade Area, and ultimately to a global Free Trade Area. I would like to echo what Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has just said - that Asia will not be prosperous if we exclude the other trading partners. We must work together on a global basis.
In Hong Kong we have watched and participated in these developments with great interest. Our economic model is based on being open to trade and investment flows from all over the world, and on providing a world-class business platform that those within the region and beyond may use and benefit from.
In these efforts, we have been greatly helped by our Central Government. We recently concluded an economic partnership agreement, CEPA, under which a range of goods manufactured in Hong Kong will enjoy duty free access to the Mainland beginning next January 1. Eighteen of our service industries will be able to enter the Mainland market ahead of China's market opening timetable under the WTO. This will give Hong Kong companies an immense advantage.
Also enhancing Hong Kong's value as a business platform is the growing integration of the Pearl River Delta, which as you know is one of the world's fastest growing regions. Several major cross-boundary infrastructure projects - roads, railways, bridges - will strengthen Hong Kong's links with the Delta.
But perhaps more important than the infrastructure is the agreement we have reached with the authorities in Guangdong to work more closely together as a regional economy that embraces Hong Kong, Macau and the Pearl River Delta.
This will be a huge regional economy. Today, Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta have a population of just under 60 million people with a GDP of about US$250 billion. In 10 years time, we believe the combined GDP of the region will be about US$500 billion. If this region were a country, within a decade it would probably rank as the 11th or 12th largest economy in the world.
Earlier this week, Hong Kong and Shanghai, two of China's economically most important cities, agreed to build closer links and have identified eight areas of co-operation including transport, airports and ports, logistics, investment, trade and financial services. In each of these areas we will look for ways to leverage our respective strengths for the benefit of both parties.
Let me put it to you that our agreements with the Pearl River Delta, and with Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, are models for the sort of co-operation that leads to win- win development. In each of these cases, we have pooled Hong Kong's competitive strengths - our world-class business and financial services, our business-friendly low tax environment, our excellent infrastructure and our clean and efficient government - with the competitive strengths of our partners to create a situation in which the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
So we are moving forward in Hong Kong. I also want to take this opportunity to talk about another subject to which as a financial centre we are particularly sensitive. I want to share these thoughts with you. The subject is economic security.
"national security" usually refers to the protection of the safety and territorial integrity of a state from foreign forces. This concept is normally used in the context of military defence. However, in recent years, because of the liberalisation of capital accounts and increased global linkages of financial markets, emerging market economies are increasingly exposed to international capital flows that can be very volatile and destabilising at times. These volatile capital flows, when complicated by a weak banking system, poor corporate governance and incorrect macroeconomic management, can threaten the stability of monetary and financial systems, as evidenced by the Asian Financial Crisis. As a result, the "national security" concept has been extended to cover the security and integrity of the monetary or financial system of a state or economy. And just as with national security, a government is expected to take appropriate steps to protect its monetary and financial systems against external shocks, notably speculative attacks on the currency and other financial markets that may undermine systemic stability.
The security of financial systems in Asia came under serious threat during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98. What started as a currency crisis in some economies developed into banking crises that led to a near collapse of financial systems in the worst-hit economies. Many causes contributed to the crisis, including economic overheating, unsound macroeconomic policies, weakness in banking systems and poor corporate governance. However, the shocks and volatility experienced at the time were exacerbated by speculative attacks by highly leveraged institutions or hedge funds in the currency and other financial markets.
The hedge funds can influence market dynamics through the sheer size of their positions, achieved through significant leverage provided by the major international financial firms, relative to the size of the markets under attack. Large and concentrated positions can distort the normal functioning of the markets and overwhelm the price discovery process. In other words, the hedge funds could force prices and sentiment to move in a direction that favours them, even though the magnitude of such moves may be far out of line with underlying fundamentals. This could result not only in extreme volatility in the markets but also in unbearable pressure that threatens the very stability of the system. This is what we call the "elephant in the pond" problem.
Following the eruption of the Asian Financial Crisis, several economies took steps in self-defence. Of course, we did that in Hong Kong. Shortly after Hong Kong launched its e stock market operation in August 1998, Malaysia introduced exchange control measures, which have largely remained in force up to now. Thailand and Indonesia have introduced legislation that follows the Singapore model in restricting non-residents' access to domestic currency borrowings in order to prevent speculators from building up massive short positions against their currencies. Reporting requirements for banks have been tightened in these countries to keep better track of cross-border capital flows. And as a result of their own efforts, we see corporate governance and the banking systems of the Asian economies improving.
In short, to have economic security, each economy must strengthen its banking system and corporate governance, and avoid economic overheating that creates a bubble economy. But there is also a clear need to build a new international financial architecture to supervise, monitor, or at least to make the operations of hedge funds transparent.
However, as economies in the region recover and other more pressing issues arise that must be dealt with, the Asian Financial Crisis is a fading memory. It is important that Asian central bankers continue to enhance their co-operation. This is happening already as manifested by the setting up of the Asian Bond Fund. But based on our experience in the Asian Financial Crisis, it is even more important that we build up a new international financial architecture. This is particularly essential for those who advocate a floating exchange rate system. The presence of such an architecture will help protect our economies from volatile international capital flows which are potentially destablising in nature.
Ladies and gentlemen, Hong Kong is a Chinese city. Hong Kong is an international city. Hong Kong is the world city of Asia. Our excellent transportation links ensure that we are no more than three or four hours away from all the major capitals and business centres in the region. Therefore I take this opportunity to extend an invitation to all of you, those who come to Hong Kong from time to time, and those who have not been to Hong Kong, to come and visit us, to explore the opportunities for win-win development. Thank you very much.
以下為行政長(zhǎng)官董建華今日（十一月二日）出席博鰲亞洲論壇2003年年會(huì)全體大會(huì)的致辭全文（中譯本）：
主席先生、各位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、各位先生、女士：
今屆博鰲論壇以「亞洲尋求共贏：合作促進(jìn)發(fā)展」為主題，是十分合時(shí)的重要課題，我很高興有機(jī)會(huì)參與其盛。
我高興有兩個(gè)原因。第一、時(shí)機(jī)現(xiàn)已成熟，讓亞洲實(shí)現(xiàn)合作促進(jìn)發(fā)展的理想。我深信唯有攜手合作，才能確保各地人民永享繁榮。第二、香港體現(xiàn)合作促進(jìn)發(fā)展的精神，我想跟大家分享一些近期的態(tài)勢(shì)發(fā)展，對(duì)大家的討論或有啟發(fā)。
亞洲人攜手合作共創(chuàng)繁榮的愿景并非全新。一九五五年亞非多國(guó)領(lǐng)袖云集印尼萬(wàn)隆，當(dāng)代巨人中國(guó)總理周恩來(lái)、印尼總統(tǒng)蘇卡諾、印度總理尼赫魯首次聚首，共商如何合力促進(jìn)國(guó)家發(fā)展以造福國(guó)民。博鰲論壇可說(shuō)延續(xù)了這股合作精神。
萬(wàn)隆會(huì)議一眾領(lǐng)袖有合作宏愿，可惜當(dāng)年政治、社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)條件尚未成熟。亞洲各國(guó)因冷戰(zhàn)而分化，又各有內(nèi)憂，急于處理二次大戰(zhàn)后殖民地時(shí)期終結(jié)的種種挑戰(zhàn)。因此大家縱有意合作發(fā)展，卻是心有余而力不足。
時(shí)移勢(shì)易。早幾十年亞洲各地產(chǎn)品大同小異，多為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和簡(jiǎn)單工業(yè)制品，通商效益不大。國(guó)內(nèi)也未興旺至有余力可向外投資。直至近幾十年，特別是過(guò)去二十年，各地發(fā)展蓬勃，新興市場(chǎng)冒起。經(jīng)濟(jì)多元發(fā)展，商品和服務(wù)互通有無(wú)，區(qū)內(nèi)通商大有可為。資金跨境來(lái)往頻繁，投資本區(qū)成為重要增長(zhǎng)工具。
和平穩(wěn)定令各國(guó)關(guān)系日益密切，貿(mào)易投資在太平盛世中得以發(fā)展。和平穩(wěn)定令亞洲進(jìn)步繁榮。亞太經(jīng)合組織、東盟并中日韓的10+3組合都是亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體群策群力的例子，希望能先成立亞洲自由貿(mào)易區(qū)、進(jìn)而為亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，終目標(biāo)當(dāng)為全球自由貿(mào)易。我想重申新加坡總理吳作棟先生所言，不與其他貿(mào)易伙伴合作，亞洲也無(wú)法繁盛起來(lái)。我們的工作，必須全球參與。
香港目睹并參與這些進(jìn)程，尤感切身，因?yàn)橄愀鄣慕?jīng)濟(jì)模式正是建基于對(duì)世界各地開(kāi)放貿(mào)易和投資，建基于為亞洲內(nèi)外提供商務(wù)平臺(tái)以創(chuàng)富利民。
中央政府對(duì)香港大力襄助，近簽立的《更緊密經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系安排》，讓多種港產(chǎn)貨品由明年一月一日起零關(guān)稅進(jìn)入內(nèi)地市場(chǎng)，另18種服務(wù)業(yè)可先于世貿(mào)所訂中國(guó)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)放時(shí)間，提早進(jìn)入內(nèi)地，讓香港公司得以早先鞭。
另一項(xiàng)為香港商務(wù)平臺(tái)增值的條件，是與發(fā)展速度全球的珠江三角洲整合。多項(xiàng)跨界基建、公路、鐵路、大橋，都將令香港與珠三角的聯(lián)系倍加緊密。
但其實(shí)比基建更重要的，是我們與廣東省達(dá)成的協(xié)議，進(jìn)一步合力發(fā)展港、澳、珠三角區(qū)組成的經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)。
這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)會(huì)相當(dāng)龐大。目前，香港與珠三角人口迫近6 000萬(wàn)，本地生產(chǎn)總值約2,500億美元。十年后，相信區(qū)內(nèi)合計(jì)本地生產(chǎn)總值將達(dá)5,000億美元。如把這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)當(dāng)作一個(gè)國(guó)家，十年后大抵會(huì)是全球第十一、十二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。
這個(gè)星期較早時(shí)，香港與上海這兩個(gè)全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)龍頭協(xié)定加強(qiáng)合作，八大領(lǐng)域包括運(yùn)輸、航空港、港口航運(yùn)、物流、投資、商貿(mào)、金融服務(wù)等，逐一研究如何互補(bǔ)優(yōu)勢(shì)，互惠互利。
我想告訴各位，我們與珠三角的協(xié)議，還有與長(zhǎng)江三角洲上海的協(xié)議，都是合作求共贏的例子。我們都把香港的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，如商貿(mào)金融服務(wù)、有利營(yíng)商的低稅率環(huán)境、一流基建、廉潔高效的政府，與伙伴的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)并合，相得益彰，實(shí)力倍增。
因此，香港前途無(wú)可限量。我也想借這機(jī)會(huì)，跟大家談?wù)勏愀圩鳛閲?guó)際金融中心所特別關(guān)注的另一課題，就是「經(jīng)濟(jì)安全」問(wèn)題。
「國(guó)家安全」泛指保護(hù)國(guó)家安全和領(lǐng)土完整，免受外國(guó)武力侵?jǐn)_，一般用于軍事防衛(wèi)。不過(guò)，近年隨資本帳目開(kāi)放和全球金融市場(chǎng)日益緊密連系，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體往往易受國(guó)際資金流竄沖擊而波動(dòng)不穩(wěn)。資金流竄，加上銀行體系積弱、企業(yè)管治欠佳和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理失當(dāng)，都會(huì)危害這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣金融體系穩(wěn)定，亞洲金融危機(jī)就是一例。原來(lái)的「國(guó)家安全」理念，因此延伸至保護(hù)國(guó)家或經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣金融體系安全完整。一如保護(hù)國(guó)家安全，政府務(wù)須采取適當(dāng)措施保護(hù)貨幣金融體系安全，防范外來(lái)沖擊，特別是投機(jī)熱錢對(duì)本土貨幣和其他金融市場(chǎng)的攻擊，以免危及整體穩(wěn)定。
在一九九七、九八年間的亞洲金融危機(jī)中，亞洲各地的金融體系備受威脅。先是某些亞洲國(guó)家出現(xiàn)的貨幣危機(jī)，繼而惡化成銀行危機(jī)，終更導(dǎo)致金融體系幾乎崩潰。引發(fā)金融危機(jī)的因素不少：經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策失當(dāng)、銀行體系積弱、企業(yè)管治欠佳等。利用高杠桿比率投機(jī)炒賣的機(jī)構(gòu)和對(duì)基金狙擊亞洲貨幣等金融市場(chǎng)，加劇了市場(chǎng)的震蕩和波動(dòng)。
對(duì)基金由于得到主要國(guó)際金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供高杠桿比率，可在擬狙擊的市場(chǎng)持有極大倉(cāng)盤，因而有能力左右市場(chǎng)方向。巨額而集中的持倉(cāng)量可以扭曲市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作，不讓投資者認(rèn)清真正價(jià)格。換句話說(shuō)，對(duì)基金可以*控價(jià)格，并隨意牽引市場(chǎng)參與者往有利于他們的方向走，波幅可能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)偏離了市場(chǎng)的實(shí)際支持。這樣不僅令市場(chǎng)急劇波動(dòng)，更會(huì)造成巨大壓力，危及體系穩(wěn)定，這就是我們所說(shuō)的「大象入小塘」，龐大的投機(jī)者可以摧毀其他小投資者問(wèn)題。
亞洲金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，多個(gè)國(guó)家和地方都采取了防御措施，香港當(dāng)然也不例外。一九九八年八月，香港股票市場(chǎng)推行新規(guī)定不久，馬來(lái)西亞即實(shí)施外管制，并大致沿用至今。泰國(guó)和印尼推行新法例，仿效新加坡模式限制非居民借貸本土貨幣，防范投機(jī)者建立巨額空倉(cāng)狙擊其貨幣。這些國(guó)家又嚴(yán)格規(guī)定銀行須申報(bào)資料，追查跨境資金流向。經(jīng)各地政府努力，亞洲的企業(yè)管治和銀行體系已日見(jiàn)進(jìn)步。
簡(jiǎn)而言之，要確保經(jīng)濟(jì)安全，各地必須加強(qiáng)銀行體系和企業(yè)管治，避免經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱造成泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)。此外，更必須建立國(guó)際金融架構(gòu)用以監(jiān)管對(duì)基金，或至少令這些基金的運(yùn)作更見(jiàn)透明。
隨區(qū)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，加上有其他更迫切要?jiǎng)?wù)須予處理，亞洲金融危機(jī)似漸為人遺忘。亞洲各地的中央銀行務(wù)須繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)合作，而成立亞洲債券基金正是其中一環(huán)。不過(guò)，根據(jù)亞洲金融危機(jī)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，更重要的是建立新的國(guó)際金融架構(gòu)，這對(duì)奉行自由浮動(dòng)匯率制度的國(guó)家尤其重要。新架構(gòu)有助保護(hù)本土不受國(guó)際資金流竄沖擊而致不穩(wěn)。
各位，香港是中國(guó)一個(gè)城市，也是國(guó)際城市，更是亞洲國(guó)際都會(huì)。香港一流的運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)讓我們?cè)谌?、四小時(shí)內(nèi)就可直達(dá)區(qū)內(nèi)各主要都會(huì)及商貿(mào)中心。我在此誠(chéng)邀各位，不論是經(jīng)常來(lái)港的還是從未來(lái)過(guò)的，都來(lái)探訪我們，開(kāi)拓商機(jī)，尋求共贏。多謝各位。
Mr Chairman, excellencies, friends, ladies and gentlemen:
I'm very glad to have this opportunity to participate in this Forum with its theme, "Asia Searching for Win-Win Development Through Co-operation." It is a very timely and important theme.
I am glad for two reasons: first because the conditions are now ripe for us to realise the vision of Asia developing through co-operation. I believe it is only through such co-operation that we will ensure the continued prosperity of all our people. Second, I like to think that in Hong Kong, we embody the spirit of development through co-operation, and I would like to share with you some recent events that you might find useful in your discussions.
The vision of the peoples of Asia co-operating with each other for their mutual benefit and prosperity is not new. In 1955, in Bandung, the leaders of Asia and Africa, including the great giants of the time, Premier Zhou Enlai, President Sukarno and Prime Minister Nehru, met for the first time to discuss ways to work together to bring progress and prosperity to their peoples. I like to think that the meetings at Boao are in a way a continuation of this process.
The leaders at Bandung had a vision of co-operation, but the political, social and economic conditions of the time were not quite right. Asia was divided by the Cold War and the countries of the region were preoccupied with their own problems, the challenges of the post-colonial period, and recovering from the ravages of World War II. Therefore, it has not been possible to develop, to work together, to reach out to each other as much as we have wanted to.
But conditions have clearly changed. In earlier decades the economies of the region produced similar goods - agricultural and primary commodities and simple manufactured goods - such that it was not particularly worthwhile for the different economies to trade with each other. Neither did these economic activities generate enough surplus capital to invest in other countries. But in the last few decades, particularly in the last two, a great spurt of development has transformed the economies of the region. Our economies have diversified, and we now produce an entire range of goods and services that makes regional trade very viable. We are generating capital flows that make regional investment an important tool for growth.
Peace and stability have brought the countries of the region closer together and have made possible trade and investment, progress and prosperity. We have seen concerted efforts to link our regional economies together, as embodied in APEC, in ASEAN plus China, Japan and Korea - the so-called 10+3 process that we all hope will lead first to an Asian Free Trade Area, then an Asian Pacific Free Trade Area, and ultimately to a global Free Trade Area. I would like to echo what Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has just said - that Asia will not be prosperous if we exclude the other trading partners. We must work together on a global basis.
In Hong Kong we have watched and participated in these developments with great interest. Our economic model is based on being open to trade and investment flows from all over the world, and on providing a world-class business platform that those within the region and beyond may use and benefit from.
In these efforts, we have been greatly helped by our Central Government. We recently concluded an economic partnership agreement, CEPA, under which a range of goods manufactured in Hong Kong will enjoy duty free access to the Mainland beginning next January 1. Eighteen of our service industries will be able to enter the Mainland market ahead of China's market opening timetable under the WTO. This will give Hong Kong companies an immense advantage.
Also enhancing Hong Kong's value as a business platform is the growing integration of the Pearl River Delta, which as you know is one of the world's fastest growing regions. Several major cross-boundary infrastructure projects - roads, railways, bridges - will strengthen Hong Kong's links with the Delta.
But perhaps more important than the infrastructure is the agreement we have reached with the authorities in Guangdong to work more closely together as a regional economy that embraces Hong Kong, Macau and the Pearl River Delta.
This will be a huge regional economy. Today, Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta have a population of just under 60 million people with a GDP of about US$250 billion. In 10 years time, we believe the combined GDP of the region will be about US$500 billion. If this region were a country, within a decade it would probably rank as the 11th or 12th largest economy in the world.
Earlier this week, Hong Kong and Shanghai, two of China's economically most important cities, agreed to build closer links and have identified eight areas of co-operation including transport, airports and ports, logistics, investment, trade and financial services. In each of these areas we will look for ways to leverage our respective strengths for the benefit of both parties.
Let me put it to you that our agreements with the Pearl River Delta, and with Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta, are models for the sort of co-operation that leads to win- win development. In each of these cases, we have pooled Hong Kong's competitive strengths - our world-class business and financial services, our business-friendly low tax environment, our excellent infrastructure and our clean and efficient government - with the competitive strengths of our partners to create a situation in which the whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
So we are moving forward in Hong Kong. I also want to take this opportunity to talk about another subject to which as a financial centre we are particularly sensitive. I want to share these thoughts with you. The subject is economic security.
"national security" usually refers to the protection of the safety and territorial integrity of a state from foreign forces. This concept is normally used in the context of military defence. However, in recent years, because of the liberalisation of capital accounts and increased global linkages of financial markets, emerging market economies are increasingly exposed to international capital flows that can be very volatile and destabilising at times. These volatile capital flows, when complicated by a weak banking system, poor corporate governance and incorrect macroeconomic management, can threaten the stability of monetary and financial systems, as evidenced by the Asian Financial Crisis. As a result, the "national security" concept has been extended to cover the security and integrity of the monetary or financial system of a state or economy. And just as with national security, a government is expected to take appropriate steps to protect its monetary and financial systems against external shocks, notably speculative attacks on the currency and other financial markets that may undermine systemic stability.
The security of financial systems in Asia came under serious threat during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98. What started as a currency crisis in some economies developed into banking crises that led to a near collapse of financial systems in the worst-hit economies. Many causes contributed to the crisis, including economic overheating, unsound macroeconomic policies, weakness in banking systems and poor corporate governance. However, the shocks and volatility experienced at the time were exacerbated by speculative attacks by highly leveraged institutions or hedge funds in the currency and other financial markets.
The hedge funds can influence market dynamics through the sheer size of their positions, achieved through significant leverage provided by the major international financial firms, relative to the size of the markets under attack. Large and concentrated positions can distort the normal functioning of the markets and overwhelm the price discovery process. In other words, the hedge funds could force prices and sentiment to move in a direction that favours them, even though the magnitude of such moves may be far out of line with underlying fundamentals. This could result not only in extreme volatility in the markets but also in unbearable pressure that threatens the very stability of the system. This is what we call the "elephant in the pond" problem.
Following the eruption of the Asian Financial Crisis, several economies took steps in self-defence. Of course, we did that in Hong Kong. Shortly after Hong Kong launched its e stock market operation in August 1998, Malaysia introduced exchange control measures, which have largely remained in force up to now. Thailand and Indonesia have introduced legislation that follows the Singapore model in restricting non-residents' access to domestic currency borrowings in order to prevent speculators from building up massive short positions against their currencies. Reporting requirements for banks have been tightened in these countries to keep better track of cross-border capital flows. And as a result of their own efforts, we see corporate governance and the banking systems of the Asian economies improving.
In short, to have economic security, each economy must strengthen its banking system and corporate governance, and avoid economic overheating that creates a bubble economy. But there is also a clear need to build a new international financial architecture to supervise, monitor, or at least to make the operations of hedge funds transparent.
However, as economies in the region recover and other more pressing issues arise that must be dealt with, the Asian Financial Crisis is a fading memory. It is important that Asian central bankers continue to enhance their co-operation. This is happening already as manifested by the setting up of the Asian Bond Fund. But based on our experience in the Asian Financial Crisis, it is even more important that we build up a new international financial architecture. This is particularly essential for those who advocate a floating exchange rate system. The presence of such an architecture will help protect our economies from volatile international capital flows which are potentially destablising in nature.
Ladies and gentlemen, Hong Kong is a Chinese city. Hong Kong is an international city. Hong Kong is the world city of Asia. Our excellent transportation links ensure that we are no more than three or four hours away from all the major capitals and business centres in the region. Therefore I take this opportunity to extend an invitation to all of you, those who come to Hong Kong from time to time, and those who have not been to Hong Kong, to come and visit us, to explore the opportunities for win-win development. Thank you very much.
以下為行政長(zhǎng)官董建華今日（十一月二日）出席博鰲亞洲論壇2003年年會(huì)全體大會(huì)的致辭全文（中譯本）：
主席先生、各位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、各位先生、女士：
今屆博鰲論壇以「亞洲尋求共贏：合作促進(jìn)發(fā)展」為主題，是十分合時(shí)的重要課題，我很高興有機(jī)會(huì)參與其盛。
我高興有兩個(gè)原因。第一、時(shí)機(jī)現(xiàn)已成熟，讓亞洲實(shí)現(xiàn)合作促進(jìn)發(fā)展的理想。我深信唯有攜手合作，才能確保各地人民永享繁榮。第二、香港體現(xiàn)合作促進(jìn)發(fā)展的精神，我想跟大家分享一些近期的態(tài)勢(shì)發(fā)展，對(duì)大家的討論或有啟發(fā)。
亞洲人攜手合作共創(chuàng)繁榮的愿景并非全新。一九五五年亞非多國(guó)領(lǐng)袖云集印尼萬(wàn)隆，當(dāng)代巨人中國(guó)總理周恩來(lái)、印尼總統(tǒng)蘇卡諾、印度總理尼赫魯首次聚首，共商如何合力促進(jìn)國(guó)家發(fā)展以造福國(guó)民。博鰲論壇可說(shuō)延續(xù)了這股合作精神。
萬(wàn)隆會(huì)議一眾領(lǐng)袖有合作宏愿，可惜當(dāng)年政治、社會(huì)、經(jīng)濟(jì)條件尚未成熟。亞洲各國(guó)因冷戰(zhàn)而分化，又各有內(nèi)憂，急于處理二次大戰(zhàn)后殖民地時(shí)期終結(jié)的種種挑戰(zhàn)。因此大家縱有意合作發(fā)展，卻是心有余而力不足。
時(shí)移勢(shì)易。早幾十年亞洲各地產(chǎn)品大同小異，多為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和簡(jiǎn)單工業(yè)制品，通商效益不大。國(guó)內(nèi)也未興旺至有余力可向外投資。直至近幾十年，特別是過(guò)去二十年，各地發(fā)展蓬勃，新興市場(chǎng)冒起。經(jīng)濟(jì)多元發(fā)展，商品和服務(wù)互通有無(wú)，區(qū)內(nèi)通商大有可為。資金跨境來(lái)往頻繁，投資本區(qū)成為重要增長(zhǎng)工具。
和平穩(wěn)定令各國(guó)關(guān)系日益密切，貿(mào)易投資在太平盛世中得以發(fā)展。和平穩(wěn)定令亞洲進(jìn)步繁榮。亞太經(jīng)合組織、東盟并中日韓的10+3組合都是亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體群策群力的例子，希望能先成立亞洲自由貿(mào)易區(qū)、進(jìn)而為亞太自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，終目標(biāo)當(dāng)為全球自由貿(mào)易。我想重申新加坡總理吳作棟先生所言，不與其他貿(mào)易伙伴合作，亞洲也無(wú)法繁盛起來(lái)。我們的工作，必須全球參與。
香港目睹并參與這些進(jìn)程，尤感切身，因?yàn)橄愀鄣慕?jīng)濟(jì)模式正是建基于對(duì)世界各地開(kāi)放貿(mào)易和投資，建基于為亞洲內(nèi)外提供商務(wù)平臺(tái)以創(chuàng)富利民。
中央政府對(duì)香港大力襄助，近簽立的《更緊密經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系安排》，讓多種港產(chǎn)貨品由明年一月一日起零關(guān)稅進(jìn)入內(nèi)地市場(chǎng)，另18種服務(wù)業(yè)可先于世貿(mào)所訂中國(guó)市場(chǎng)開(kāi)放時(shí)間，提早進(jìn)入內(nèi)地，讓香港公司得以早先鞭。
另一項(xiàng)為香港商務(wù)平臺(tái)增值的條件，是與發(fā)展速度全球的珠江三角洲整合。多項(xiàng)跨界基建、公路、鐵路、大橋，都將令香港與珠三角的聯(lián)系倍加緊密。
但其實(shí)比基建更重要的，是我們與廣東省達(dá)成的協(xié)議，進(jìn)一步合力發(fā)展港、澳、珠三角區(qū)組成的經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)。
這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)會(huì)相當(dāng)龐大。目前，香港與珠三角人口迫近6 000萬(wàn)，本地生產(chǎn)總值約2,500億美元。十年后，相信區(qū)內(nèi)合計(jì)本地生產(chǎn)總值將達(dá)5,000億美元。如把這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)當(dāng)作一個(gè)國(guó)家，十年后大抵會(huì)是全球第十一、十二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。
這個(gè)星期較早時(shí)，香港與上海這兩個(gè)全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)龍頭協(xié)定加強(qiáng)合作，八大領(lǐng)域包括運(yùn)輸、航空港、港口航運(yùn)、物流、投資、商貿(mào)、金融服務(wù)等，逐一研究如何互補(bǔ)優(yōu)勢(shì)，互惠互利。
我想告訴各位，我們與珠三角的協(xié)議，還有與長(zhǎng)江三角洲上海的協(xié)議，都是合作求共贏的例子。我們都把香港的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，如商貿(mào)金融服務(wù)、有利營(yíng)商的低稅率環(huán)境、一流基建、廉潔高效的政府，與伙伴的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)并合，相得益彰，實(shí)力倍增。
因此，香港前途無(wú)可限量。我也想借這機(jī)會(huì)，跟大家談?wù)勏愀圩鳛閲?guó)際金融中心所特別關(guān)注的另一課題，就是「經(jīng)濟(jì)安全」問(wèn)題。
「國(guó)家安全」泛指保護(hù)國(guó)家安全和領(lǐng)土完整，免受外國(guó)武力侵?jǐn)_，一般用于軍事防衛(wèi)。不過(guò)，近年隨資本帳目開(kāi)放和全球金融市場(chǎng)日益緊密連系，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體往往易受國(guó)際資金流竄沖擊而波動(dòng)不穩(wěn)。資金流竄，加上銀行體系積弱、企業(yè)管治欠佳和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理失當(dāng)，都會(huì)危害這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣金融體系穩(wěn)定，亞洲金融危機(jī)就是一例。原來(lái)的「國(guó)家安全」理念，因此延伸至保護(hù)國(guó)家或經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣金融體系安全完整。一如保護(hù)國(guó)家安全，政府務(wù)須采取適當(dāng)措施保護(hù)貨幣金融體系安全，防范外來(lái)沖擊，特別是投機(jī)熱錢對(duì)本土貨幣和其他金融市場(chǎng)的攻擊，以免危及整體穩(wěn)定。
在一九九七、九八年間的亞洲金融危機(jī)中，亞洲各地的金融體系備受威脅。先是某些亞洲國(guó)家出現(xiàn)的貨幣危機(jī)，繼而惡化成銀行危機(jī)，終更導(dǎo)致金融體系幾乎崩潰。引發(fā)金融危機(jī)的因素不少：經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策失當(dāng)、銀行體系積弱、企業(yè)管治欠佳等。利用高杠桿比率投機(jī)炒賣的機(jī)構(gòu)和對(duì)基金狙擊亞洲貨幣等金融市場(chǎng)，加劇了市場(chǎng)的震蕩和波動(dòng)。
對(duì)基金由于得到主要國(guó)際金融機(jī)構(gòu)提供高杠桿比率，可在擬狙擊的市場(chǎng)持有極大倉(cāng)盤，因而有能力左右市場(chǎng)方向。巨額而集中的持倉(cāng)量可以扭曲市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作，不讓投資者認(rèn)清真正價(jià)格。換句話說(shuō)，對(duì)基金可以*控價(jià)格，并隨意牽引市場(chǎng)參與者往有利于他們的方向走，波幅可能遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)偏離了市場(chǎng)的實(shí)際支持。這樣不僅令市場(chǎng)急劇波動(dòng)，更會(huì)造成巨大壓力，危及體系穩(wěn)定，這就是我們所說(shuō)的「大象入小塘」，龐大的投機(jī)者可以摧毀其他小投資者問(wèn)題。
亞洲金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后，多個(gè)國(guó)家和地方都采取了防御措施，香港當(dāng)然也不例外。一九九八年八月，香港股票市場(chǎng)推行新規(guī)定不久，馬來(lái)西亞即實(shí)施外管制，并大致沿用至今。泰國(guó)和印尼推行新法例，仿效新加坡模式限制非居民借貸本土貨幣，防范投機(jī)者建立巨額空倉(cāng)狙擊其貨幣。這些國(guó)家又嚴(yán)格規(guī)定銀行須申報(bào)資料，追查跨境資金流向。經(jīng)各地政府努力，亞洲的企業(yè)管治和銀行體系已日見(jiàn)進(jìn)步。
簡(jiǎn)而言之，要確保經(jīng)濟(jì)安全，各地必須加強(qiáng)銀行體系和企業(yè)管治，避免經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱造成泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)。此外，更必須建立國(guó)際金融架構(gòu)用以監(jiān)管對(duì)基金，或至少令這些基金的運(yùn)作更見(jiàn)透明。
隨區(qū)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，加上有其他更迫切要?jiǎng)?wù)須予處理，亞洲金融危機(jī)似漸為人遺忘。亞洲各地的中央銀行務(wù)須繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)合作，而成立亞洲債券基金正是其中一環(huán)。不過(guò)，根據(jù)亞洲金融危機(jī)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，更重要的是建立新的國(guó)際金融架構(gòu)，這對(duì)奉行自由浮動(dòng)匯率制度的國(guó)家尤其重要。新架構(gòu)有助保護(hù)本土不受國(guó)際資金流竄沖擊而致不穩(wěn)。
各位，香港是中國(guó)一個(gè)城市，也是國(guó)際城市，更是亞洲國(guó)際都會(huì)。香港一流的運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)讓我們?cè)谌?、四小時(shí)內(nèi)就可直達(dá)區(qū)內(nèi)各主要都會(huì)及商貿(mào)中心。我在此誠(chéng)邀各位，不論是經(jīng)常來(lái)港的還是從未來(lái)過(guò)的，都來(lái)探訪我們，開(kāi)拓商機(jī)，尋求共贏。多謝各位。