想要提高托福閱讀能力，我們一定要在日常生活中有意識地增加英語閱讀量，提升語感和熟練度，這其中比較常用也比較方便地一個方式就是利用各類英文報刊雜志文章進行精讀與泛讀練習。下面和出國留學網(wǎng)小編一起來看看托福閱讀之德國人口衰減。
Depopulation in Germany
Fading echoes
Germany is running out of people， starting in the east
德國人口衰減
回聲漸
德國面臨人口枯竭，東德首當其沖
WERE it not for the graffiti on abandoned buildings， Bitterfeld-Wolfen， two towns north of Leipzig joined as one in 2007， would seem devoid of young people. Pharmacies， physiotherapy surgeries and shops selling garden gnomes line the sleepy streets. In its heyday the place had a booming chemical industry. Today “the air is much cleaner and we can finally hang out laundry，” says an elderly local out on a morning stroll. “But many jobs were lost and so few children are left.” He points out a building that was once a school； today it is one of many care homes.
萊比錫以北有座城市叫比特費爾德-沃爾芬（Bitterfeld-Wolfen），由兩個小城于2007年合并而成。要不是一些廢棄的建筑上畫著涂鴉，簡直看不出那里還有年輕人。沿著毫無生氣的街道，藥店、理療館和賣花園精靈雕塑的商店一字排開。在鼎盛時期，這里曾有著蓬勃發(fā)展的化工產業(yè)。而如今，一個早上出門溜達的當?shù)乩先苏f，“空氣干凈多了，總算能在外面晾衣服了?！彼噶酥敢蛔ㄖ?，那里曾是所學校，現(xiàn)在成了當?shù)乇姸囵B(yǎng)老院之一。“不過很多工作機會都沒了，也沒有幾個孩子留下來?！?BR> Despite an influx of 1.2m refugees over the past two years， Germany’s population faces near-irreversible decline. According to predictions from the UN in 2015， two in five Germans will be over 60 by 2050 and Europe’s oldest country will have shrunk to 75m from 82m. Since the 1970s， more Germans have been dying than are born. Fewer births and longer lives are a problem for most rich countries. But the consequences are more acute for Germany， where birth rates are lower than in Britain and France.
盡管過去兩年中涌入了120萬難民，德國人口仍面臨著幾乎不可逆轉的萎縮。聯(lián)合國曾在2015年預言，到2050年，每五個德國人就有兩個超過60歲。這個歐洲老齡化最嚴重國家的人口將從8200萬縮減至7500萬。自上世紀70年代以來，德國的死亡人數(shù)就多過出生的人數(shù)。大多數(shù)富裕國家都存在著生育率降低而人口壽命變長的問題，但其后果在德國表現(xiàn)得要更為嚴峻。德國的出生率比英國和法國都要低。
If Germany is a warning for others， its eastern part is a warning for its west. If it were still a country， East Germany would be the oldest in the world. Nearly 30 years after unification the region still suffers the aftershock from the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989， when millions—mostly young， mostly women—fled for the west. Those who remained had record-low birth rates. “Kids not born in the ’90s， also didn’t have kids in the 2010s. It’s the echo of the echo，” says Frank Swiaczny from the Federal Institute for Population Research， a think-tank in Wiesbaden. The east’s population will shrink from 12.5m in 2016 to 8.7m by 2060， according to government statistics. Saxony-Anhalt， the state to which Bitterfeld-Wolfen belongs， is ahead of the curve.
如果說德國對其他國家有所警示，那么德國東部則向其西部敲響了警鐘。如果東德今天仍是個國家，它將是世界老齡化最嚴重的國家。1989年柏林墻倒塌后，數(shù)百萬人逃往西德，多數(shù)是年輕人和女人。那些留下來的人的出生率達到歷史最低點。統(tǒng)一近30年后，該地區(qū)仍未從柏林墻倒塌的余波中恢復過來。弗蘭克·斯威亞茲尼（Frank Swiaczny）供職于威斯巴登（Wiesbaden）一家名為聯(lián)邦人口研究所（Federal Institute for Population Research）的智庫。他說，“上世紀90年代出生銳減的一代人，到2010年代同樣少生孩子。這是個惡性循環(huán)?！备鶕?jù)政府的統(tǒng)計數(shù)字，到2060年，東德的人口將從2016年的1250萬縮減到870萬。比特費爾德-沃爾芬所在的薩克森-安哈爾特州（Saxony-Anhalt）目前引領這條下降曲線。
Berlin used to pay little attention to the area. But regional decline has already had a political effect. In a state election in March 2016， a populist party， the AfD， came first in Bitterfeld and second in Wolfen. Such places will matter in a federal election in September， which is expected to be tight. Bitterfeld-Wolfen has seen its population plummet from 75，000 in 1989 to 40，500 today. Even after administrators tore down blocks of flats， and cut floors off others， skeletal remains of buildings still await the wrecking ball. Nearly one building in five is empty. A grand Stalinist-era construction， once the town’s cultural palace， now stands deserted. Two-thirds of kindergartens and over half the schools have closed since 1990. The number of pupils finishing secondary school has fallen by half. Employers struggle to fill vacancies.
柏林過去并不重視該地區(qū)。然而區(qū)域性的衰落已經產生了政治影響。2016年3月舉行的一次州選舉中，民粹主義政黨另類選擇黨（AfD）在比特費爾德得票第一，在沃爾芬位居第二。預計9月份的聯(lián)邦大選會很膠著，屆時這些地方就很關鍵。從1989年到今天，比特費爾德-沃爾芬的人口已從7.5萬驟降至4.05萬。即使管理部門已拆除了一些公寓樓及其他建筑，仍有斷壁殘垣在等待落錘。將近五分之一的建筑都是空的。一棟斯大林時代的宏偉建筑曾是這個小城的文化中心，如今也已廢棄。1990年以來，三分之二的幼兒園以及一半以上的學校都已關閉。完成中等學業(yè)的學生人數(shù)下降了一半。雇主苦苦尋覓能填補崗位空缺的人。
Apprentices—especially in service industries—are hard to find. The one booming industry， care， is desperate for more geriatricians， nurses and trainees. To help fill the gap， the local Euro-Schulen， a training institute， has turned to Vietnam. Having studied German in Hanoi， 16 young apprentices started in April， with 20 more expected soon. Nearby Dessau is setting up a similar arrangement with China.
學徒工很難招到，尤其是在服務業(yè)。新興的護理行業(yè)迫切需要更多的老年病學家、護士和見習生。為了幫助填補這一缺口，當?shù)匾粋€培訓機構“歐洲學校”（Euro-Schulen）將目光投向了越南。4月有16名已在河內學習過德語的年輕學徒上崗，很快還會再有20名。附近的城市德紹（Dessau）也正同中國訂立類似的合作協(xié)議。
Germany has long relied on migrants to make up for low fertility rates. Unusually high migration in recent years has more than offset the shrinkage of the native-born population. But the EU countries that have traditionally provided the migrants， such as Poland， are also ageing. Migrant flows will slow； competition for labour will increase. And Olga P?tzsch， from the Federal Statistical Office， argues that Germany will need far more migrants to stop population decline， which is predicted to accelerate from 2020.
德國一直都靠移民來彌補生育率低下。像近年這樣大批涌入的移民在抵消本土出生人口縮水之后通常還會有富余，但過去一直提供移民的歐盟國家本身也在老齡化，例如波蘭。移民的流動將放緩，爭奪勞動力的競爭將會加劇。德國聯(lián)邦統(tǒng)計局的奧爾加·波茨什（Olga P?tzsch）表示，德國人口預計會在2020年后加速減少，要遏制人口下跌，所需的移民數(shù)量要遠超現(xiàn)在的數(shù)字。
Uwe Schulze， a senior local official， says that refugees are not filling the labour shortage. Of the 2，600-odd asylum-seekers who arrived in the area in 2015 and 2016， fewer than a third are now registered as “capable of working” and only 40 are fully employed. From his wood-panelled office in a neoclassical building that once housed one of Europe’s largest colour-film makers， Armin Schenk， Bitterfeld-Wolfen’s mayor， says the problems are mostly to do with language， qualifications and uncertainty about asylum. Asked whether Afghans and Syrians could join the same programme as the Vietnamese， Liane Michaelis， from Euro-Schulen， forcefully shakes her head， citing educational， religious and ethical barriers for care jobs. She adds that “those who do have the right papers leave quickly”. According to the OECD， about half of asylum-seekers who started off in eastern Germany in the past moved to places such as Hamburg once they secured their permit.
當?shù)匾晃桓呒壒賳T烏維·舒爾策（Uwe Schulze）說，難民并不足以彌補勞動力的短缺。2015年至2016年間來到該地區(qū)尋求庇護的2600多人中，如今只有不到三分之一的人登記為“有工作能力”，只有40個人找到了全職工作。比特費爾德-沃爾芬市長阿爾明·申克（Armin Schenk）在他那間木板墻面的辦公室（這幢新古典主義風格的建筑曾是歐洲數(shù)一數(shù)二的彩色膠片生產商的辦公室）里表示，問題主要有語言障礙、工作資質欠缺以及不確定難民們是否能獲得庇護。當被問及阿富汗和敘利亞人是否也可以加入像越南人那種項目，歐洲學校的利亞妮·米歇埃麗絲（Liane Michaelis）用力地搖了搖頭。她指出，教育、宗教以及道德倫理方面的隔閡令他們難以從事護理工作。此外，“那些確實有許可的人又都會很快離開。”經合組織（OECD）表示，之前，先在德國東部落腳的避難者一旦拿到了居留許可，便會搬到漢堡等地。
With the odds seemingly stacked against it， Bitterfeld-Wolfen is at least trying. On a whirlwind tour of the town， Mr Schenk shows how the old coal mine was turned into a lake with a new marina and a promenade. He repeats the town’s mantra： “It’s all about offering good-quality life and leisure.” A brochure shows pictures of smiling children， yachts and tennis. Bitterfeld-Wolfen， it reads， is “one of the youngest cities in Germany”. But even if such marketing did stem departures （and in 2015， for the first time， inward migration slightly exceeded the outflow） the town is still shrinking； more than twice as many die each year as are born.
雖然看起來贏面不大，但比特費爾德-沃爾芬起碼仍在想辦法。申克帶領來訪者快速在城內轉了一圈，并展示了一個從廢棄的煤礦改造而來的湖泊，湖邊還新建了一個小碼頭和一條漫步大道。他反復搬出這座城市的口號：“只為提供優(yōu)質的生活和休閑?！币槐拘宰由嫌≈⒆觽兊男δ?，還有游艇和網(wǎng)球。上面還寫著比特費爾德-沃爾芬是“德國最年輕的城市之一”。但即便這樣的營銷確實阻止了人口外流（2015年流入人口的數(shù)量首次略微超過流出人口），該地的人口仍在萎縮，因為每年死亡的人口超過新出生人口的兩倍。
Across many parts of rural Europe mayors struggle with similar problems， wondering when to turn their school into a care home. By 2050 Greece， Italy， Poland， Portugal and Spain—which， unlike Germany， have all suffered net brain-drains—will be older than Germany by median age and will have shrunk substantially， according to the UN. Ageing and emigration are likely further to dampen growth in central and southern European countries， says the IMF. It calculates that by 2030 GDP per person in several countries may be 3-4% lower than it would have been without emigration.
在歐洲很多鄉(xiāng)村，市長們在為類似的問題苦惱，琢磨著什么時候把本地的學校改成護理院。據(jù)聯(lián)合國預測，以年齡中位數(shù)計，到2050年希臘、意大利、波蘭、葡萄牙和西班牙的老齡化程度將超過德國，人口也將大幅縮減（而且這些國家與德國不同，均遭受人才的凈外流）。國際貨幣基金組織指出，老齡化和人口外流很可能會進一步抑制歐洲中部和南部國家的經濟增長。據(jù)其估算，到2030年某些國家的人均GDP要比假設沒有人口外流的情形低3%到4%。
Where Bitterfeld-Wolfen goes…
比特費爾德-沃爾芬何去何從
In Germany， however， the consequences are particularly acute. With a strong economy and a tight labour market， some employers already struggle to fill vacancies. BCG， a consultancy， predicts that by 2030 the country will be short of between 5m and 7m workers. The triple shock of a smaller workforce， increased social spending and the likely dampening effect of an older workforce on innovation and productivity will drag down future growth， predicts Oliver Holtem?ller of the Leipzig Institute for economic Research. These effects are stronger in the east， he adds. Productivity is 20% lower than in the west； the ageing population and continuing migration to the west will make economic convergence even less likely.
不過，這些問題的后果在德國尤為嚴重。由于經濟強盛，勞動力市場供不應求，一些雇主已經很難找到人來填補崗位空缺。波士頓咨詢公司（BCG）預測，到2030年，德國的勞動力市場將出現(xiàn)500到700萬人的缺口。萊比錫經濟研究院的奧利弗·霍爾特莫勒（Oliver Holtem?ller）預言，勞動力規(guī)模減小、社會支出增加，以及勞動力老齡化抑制創(chuàng)新和生產率這三重沖擊未來會拖累經濟的增長。他還指出，這些影響在東德要更為深重。東德的生產率比西德低20%；人口日益老化以及持續(xù)向西部遷移會讓東西部經濟平衡更加難以實現(xiàn)。