2017年12月六級(jí)考試馬上到來了，為了讓同學(xué)們更好準(zhǔn)備六級(jí)考試，特別整理了《2017年12月英語六級(jí)閱讀練習(xí)：數(shù)字統(tǒng)計(jì)》，希望可以為大家?guī)韼椭? 預(yù)祝大家高分通過考試。
Forecasting of Statistics
Nearly two thousand years have passed since a census decreed by Caesar Augustus becomepart of the greatest story ever told. Many things have changed in the intervening years. Thehotel industry worries more about overbuilding than overcrowding, and if they had to meet anunexpected influx, few inns would have a manager to accommodate the weary guests. Now it is the census taker that does the traveling in the fond hope that a highly mobilepopulation will stay long enough to get a good sampling. Methods of gathering, recording, and evaluating information have presumably been improved a great deal. And where then itwas the modest purpose of Rome to obtain a simple head count as an adequate basis forlevying taxes, now batteries of complicated statistical series furnished by governmentalagencies and private organizations are eagerly scanned and interpreted by sages and seers toget a clue to future events. The Bible does not tell us how the Roman census takers made out, and as regards our more immediate concern, the reliability of present day economicforecasting, there are considerable differences of opinion. They were aired at the celebrationof the 125th anniversary of the American Statistical Association. There was the thought thatbusiness forecasting might well be on its way from an art to a science, and some speakerstalked about newfangled computers and high-falutin mathematical system in terms ofexcitement and endearment which we, at least in our younger years when these thingsmattered, would have associated more readily with the description of a fair maiden. Butothers pointed to the deplorable record of highly esteemed forecasts and forecasters with abatting average below that of the Mets, and the President-elect of the Association cautionedthat “high powered statistical methods are usually in order where the facts are crude andinadequate, the exact contrary of what crude and inadequate statisticians assume.” We lefthis birthday party somewhere between hope and despair and with the conviction, not reallynewly acquired, that proper statistical methods applied to ascertainable facts have their meritsin economic forecasting as long as neither forecaster nor public is deluded into mistaking thedelineation of probabilities and trends for a prediction of certainties of mathematicalexactitude.
1. Taxation in Roman days apparently wasbased on
[A]. wealth. [B]. mobility. [C]. population. [D]. census takers.
2. The American Statistical Association
[A]. is converting statistical study from an art to a science.
[B]. has an excellent record in business forecasting.
[C]. is neither hopeful nor pessimistic.
[D]. speaks with mathematical exactitude.
3. The message the author wishes the reader to get is
[A]. statisticians have not advanced since the days of the Roman.
[B]. statistics is not as yet a science.
[C]. statisticians love their machine.
[D].computer is hopeful.
4. The “greatest story ever told” referred to in the passage is the story of
[A]. Christmas. [B]. The Mets.
[C]. Moses. [D]. Roman Census Takers.
1. C. 人口。答案在第六句，“那時(shí)羅馬計(jì)算人頭作為征稅的適當(dāng)基礎(chǔ)，目的很簡(jiǎn)單。”
A. 財(cái)富。 B. 流動(dòng)性。 C. 人口調(diào)查員。
2. A. 正把統(tǒng)計(jì)研究從文科轉(zhuǎn)變成理科。這是從第六句開始講的一種觀點(diǎn)。“現(xiàn)在，政府機(jī)構(gòu)和私人組織的一系列復(fù)雜的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，由智者和先知人物殷切地瀏覽和解釋以取得預(yù)先外未來事件的線索。圣經(jīng)并沒有告訴我們羅馬的人口調(diào)查員是怎么調(diào)查統(tǒng)計(jì)的。至于我們當(dāng)前更加關(guān)心的問題：目前經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)的可靠性，意見分歧很大。美國統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)125周年慶?；顒?dòng)上，人們?cè)诖笏列麚P(yáng)這些不同觀點(diǎn)。有一種說法是經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)可能正從文科轉(zhuǎn)向科學(xué)(理科)發(fā)展。有些人興高采烈大談新型計(jì)算機(jī)和非常高級(jí)數(shù)學(xué)系統(tǒng)?！弊髡唠m然沒有明說，明眼人一看便知，藝術(shù)向科學(xué)轉(zhuǎn)變正是美國統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)在把統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)從文科轉(zhuǎn)向理科。所以A. 對(duì)。
B. 在商業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)方面具有杰出的記錄。不對(duì)。實(shí)際上“平均成功率還低于the Mets”
C. 既沒有希望也不樂觀。文內(nèi)沒有提及。只提作者他們半喜半憂離開協(xié)會(huì)。
D. 以數(shù)學(xué)的精確性來說話。見下道題解釋。協(xié)會(huì)部分人卻有此看法“數(shù)學(xué)精確性?！?BR> 3. B. 統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)(到現(xiàn)在為止)還不是一門科學(xué)(理科)。文章最后幾句話?！斑B統(tǒng)計(jì)協(xié)會(huì)的主席也告戒說高能統(tǒng)計(jì)法在實(shí)際材料原始和不允許的地方一般發(fā)揮正常。這跟低級(jí)的，不合適的統(tǒng)計(jì)員所假定的正好相反。我們懷著憂“?！睋桨氲男那殡x開周年慶祝宴會(huì)，懷著確實(shí)不是新近才有的信念，相信應(yīng)用于確切材料上恰當(dāng)?shù)慕y(tǒng)計(jì)法在經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)中有它的貢獻(xiàn)，只要預(yù)測(cè)人員和公眾不受蒙蔽，誤呆板所述概率和趨勢(shì)當(dāng)作數(shù)學(xué)精確無比的預(yù)測(cè)就行?！?BR> A. 統(tǒng)計(jì)員從羅馬時(shí)代起就沒向前進(jìn)步過。 C. 統(tǒng)計(jì)員愛計(jì)算機(jī)。這兩項(xiàng)文內(nèi)沒有提到。 D. 計(jì)算機(jī)前程遠(yuǎn)大。文內(nèi)只講了有些人懷著興高采烈的心情大講新型計(jì)算機(jī)和非常高級(jí)數(shù)學(xué)“系統(tǒng)”，暗示了計(jì)算機(jī)大有希望。但不是所有人都這樣認(rèn)為的。最重要的計(jì)算機(jī)的應(yīng)用并不能改變這個(gè)事實(shí)：統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)不是立刻，而是文科。所以B. 對(duì)。
4. A. 基督，圣誕節(jié)，指基督的誕生。圣經(jīng)中的一個(gè)故事。
B. the Mets. 圣經(jīng)中率領(lǐng)希伯萊人出埃及的領(lǐng)袖，也作放債的*人講。 C. 摩西。 D. 羅馬人口調(diào)查員。