【課文】
First listen and then answer the following question.
聽錄音，然后回答以下問題。
Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 120.2, then 12.03...
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
【New words and expressions 生詞和短語】
forecast n. 預報
speculative adj. 推測的
blizzard n. 暴風雪
deteriorate v. 變壞
multiply v. 增加
cascade v. 瀑布似地落下
turbulent adj. 狂暴的
dust devil 小塵暴，塵旋風
squall n. 暴風
eddy n. 旋渦
grid n. 坐標方格
sensor n. 傳感器
humidity n. 溫度
meteorologist n. 氣象學家
Princeton n. 普林斯頓(美國城市名)
New Jersey n. 新澤西(美國州名)
fluctuation n. 起伏，波動
deviation n. 偏差
【課文注釋】
1.beyond two or three days，超過兩三天。
beyond這個介詞有很多用法：
①在或向(某物)的遠處。
例句：The road continues beyond the village up into the hills.
這條路綿延不斷越過村子直入山中。
②遲于或超過(某一時間)。
例句：It won't go on beyond midnight.
這不會持續(xù)到午夜以后。
③越出(某事物)范圍;超越。
例句：The bicycle is beyond repairis.=The bicycle is too badly damaged to repair.
這輛自行車已不能修理了。
④除(某事物)以外;除了。
例句：He's got nothing beyond his state pension.
除了國家發(fā)的養(yǎng)老金，他一無所有。
2.deteriorate 變壞，惡化。
If something deteriorates, it becomes worse in some way.和improve是反義詞。
例句：Food is apt to deteriorate in summer.
食物在夏天容易變質(zhì)。
例句：The discussion deteriorated into a bitter quarrel.
這場討論演變成了激烈的爭吵。
3.multiply乘;增多，增加;繁殖。
①表示兩數(shù)相乘。
例句：2 and 3 multiply to make 6.
2和3相乘得6。
②增多，增加。
例句：Our problems have multiplied since last year.
自去年以來我們的問題增多了。
這篇文章中“errors and uncertainties multiply”的multiply就是增加、增多的意思。
③繁殖，增殖。
例句：It is possible to multiply bacteria and other living organisms in the laboratory.
在實驗室能夠繁殖細菌和其他生物。
4.cascade，瀑布
①作名詞，瀑布;如瀑布般的。
例句：The water formed a cascade down the mountain.
水沿山瀉下，形成一條瀑布。
②in cascades/cascades of，像瀑布一樣。
例句：Climbing plants with their bright flowers hung in cascades over the garden wall.
開出鮮艷花朵的爬藤植物瀑布般懸掛在花園墻上。
③作動詞，如瀑布似的落下。
例句：Her golden hair cascaded down her back.
她的金發(fā)像瀑布似的披在背后。
5.a chain of，一系列，一連串。
例句：It is as if a single unimportant event set up a chain of reactions.
仿佛一件小事引起了一連串連鎖反應似的。
例句：The enemy tank car caught fire and set off a chain of explosions.
敵人的油車著了火，引起了一連串的爆炸。
6.of the order of，大約。
7.all the way to，一直，完全。
例句：The two runners contested the race closely it was nip and tuck all the way.
那兩個賽跑選手競爭激烈，在賽程中一直不相上下。
例句：I'll back you up all the way.
我完全支持你。
【參考譯文】
世界上好的兩三天以上的天氣預報具有很強的猜測性，如果超過六七天，天氣預報就沒有了任何價值。
原因是蝴蝶效應。對于小片的惡劣天氣 -- 對一個全球性的氣象預報員來說，“小”可以意味著雷暴雨和暴風雪 -- 任何預測的質(zhì)量會很快下降。錯誤和不可靠性上升，接踵而來的是一系列湍流的徵狀，從小塵暴和暴風發(fā)展到只有衛(wèi)星上可以看到的席卷整塊大陸的旋渦。
現(xiàn)代氣象模型以一個坐標圖來顯示，圖中每個點大約是間隔60英里。既使是這樣，有些開始時的資料也不得不依靠推測，因為地面工作站和衛(wèi)星不可能看到地球上的 每一個地方。假設地球上可以布滿傳感器，每個相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的間隔從地面一直排列到大氣層的頂端。再假定每個傳感器都極極端準確地讀出了溫度、氣 壓、溫度和氣象學家需要的任何其他數(shù)據(jù)。在正午時分，一個功能巨大的計算機搜集了所有的資料，并算出在每一個點上12：01、12：02、12：03時可 能出現(xiàn)的情況。
計算機無法推斷出1個月以后的某一天，新澤西州的普林斯頓究竟是晴天還是雨天。正午時分，傳感器之間的距離會掩蓋計算機無 法知道的波動、任何偏平均值的變化。到12：01時，那些波動就已經(jīng)會在1英尺遠的地方造成偏差。很快這種偏差會增加到尺10英的范圍，如此等等，一直到 全球的范圍。
First listen and then answer the following question.
聽錄音，然后回答以下問題。
Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 120.2, then 12.03...
The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe.
JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
【New words and expressions 生詞和短語】
forecast n. 預報
speculative adj. 推測的
blizzard n. 暴風雪
deteriorate v. 變壞
multiply v. 增加
cascade v. 瀑布似地落下
turbulent adj. 狂暴的
dust devil 小塵暴，塵旋風
squall n. 暴風
eddy n. 旋渦
grid n. 坐標方格
sensor n. 傳感器
humidity n. 溫度
meteorologist n. 氣象學家
Princeton n. 普林斯頓(美國城市名)
New Jersey n. 新澤西(美國州名)
fluctuation n. 起伏，波動
deviation n. 偏差
【課文注釋】
1.beyond two or three days，超過兩三天。
beyond這個介詞有很多用法：
①在或向(某物)的遠處。
例句：The road continues beyond the village up into the hills.
這條路綿延不斷越過村子直入山中。
②遲于或超過(某一時間)。
例句：It won't go on beyond midnight.
這不會持續(xù)到午夜以后。
③越出(某事物)范圍;超越。
例句：The bicycle is beyond repairis.=The bicycle is too badly damaged to repair.
這輛自行車已不能修理了。
④除(某事物)以外;除了。
例句：He's got nothing beyond his state pension.
除了國家發(fā)的養(yǎng)老金，他一無所有。
2.deteriorate 變壞，惡化。
If something deteriorates, it becomes worse in some way.和improve是反義詞。
例句：Food is apt to deteriorate in summer.
食物在夏天容易變質(zhì)。
例句：The discussion deteriorated into a bitter quarrel.
這場討論演變成了激烈的爭吵。
3.multiply乘;增多，增加;繁殖。
①表示兩數(shù)相乘。
例句：2 and 3 multiply to make 6.
2和3相乘得6。
②增多，增加。
例句：Our problems have multiplied since last year.
自去年以來我們的問題增多了。
這篇文章中“errors and uncertainties multiply”的multiply就是增加、增多的意思。
③繁殖，增殖。
例句：It is possible to multiply bacteria and other living organisms in the laboratory.
在實驗室能夠繁殖細菌和其他生物。
4.cascade，瀑布
①作名詞，瀑布;如瀑布般的。
例句：The water formed a cascade down the mountain.
水沿山瀉下，形成一條瀑布。
②in cascades/cascades of，像瀑布一樣。
例句：Climbing plants with their bright flowers hung in cascades over the garden wall.
開出鮮艷花朵的爬藤植物瀑布般懸掛在花園墻上。
③作動詞，如瀑布似的落下。
例句：Her golden hair cascaded down her back.
她的金發(fā)像瀑布似的披在背后。
5.a chain of，一系列，一連串。
例句：It is as if a single unimportant event set up a chain of reactions.
仿佛一件小事引起了一連串連鎖反應似的。
例句：The enemy tank car caught fire and set off a chain of explosions.
敵人的油車著了火，引起了一連串的爆炸。
6.of the order of，大約。
7.all the way to，一直，完全。
例句：The two runners contested the race closely it was nip and tuck all the way.
那兩個賽跑選手競爭激烈，在賽程中一直不相上下。
例句：I'll back you up all the way.
我完全支持你。
【參考譯文】
世界上好的兩三天以上的天氣預報具有很強的猜測性，如果超過六七天，天氣預報就沒有了任何價值。
原因是蝴蝶效應。對于小片的惡劣天氣 -- 對一個全球性的氣象預報員來說，“小”可以意味著雷暴雨和暴風雪 -- 任何預測的質(zhì)量會很快下降。錯誤和不可靠性上升，接踵而來的是一系列湍流的徵狀，從小塵暴和暴風發(fā)展到只有衛(wèi)星上可以看到的席卷整塊大陸的旋渦。
現(xiàn)代氣象模型以一個坐標圖來顯示，圖中每個點大約是間隔60英里。既使是這樣，有些開始時的資料也不得不依靠推測，因為地面工作站和衛(wèi)星不可能看到地球上的 每一個地方。假設地球上可以布滿傳感器，每個相隔1英尺，并按1英尺的間隔從地面一直排列到大氣層的頂端。再假定每個傳感器都極極端準確地讀出了溫度、氣 壓、溫度和氣象學家需要的任何其他數(shù)據(jù)。在正午時分，一個功能巨大的計算機搜集了所有的資料，并算出在每一個點上12：01、12：02、12：03時可 能出現(xiàn)的情況。
計算機無法推斷出1個月以后的某一天，新澤西州的普林斯頓究竟是晴天還是雨天。正午時分，傳感器之間的距離會掩蓋計算機無 法知道的波動、任何偏平均值的變化。到12：01時，那些波動就已經(jīng)會在1英尺遠的地方造成偏差。很快這種偏差會增加到尺10英的范圍，如此等等，一直到 全球的范圍。