第2篇、 World Crude Oil Production May Peak a Decade Earlier Than Some Predict
In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014. This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions．Their study is in ACS’ Energy＆Fuels1．
Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil"．"Peak oil "is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2. It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3. A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peal Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production Will peak, afterwards to start on irreversible decline．
The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide．
However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries．Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.
The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast．Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6．They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves7 are
being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.
詞匯：Conserve v． 保護，保存
crude oil原油
spark v．閃耀；激發(fā)；鼓舞
curve n．曲線
irreversible adj．不可逆的，不可改變的
insufficient adj.充分的，不足的
注釋：1．ACS' Energy & Fuels：ACS是American Chemical Society(美國化學學會)的縮寫。該學會成立于l876年，現(xiàn)已成為世界的科技協(xié)會。多年來，ACS一直致力于為全球化學研究機構(gòu)、企業(yè)及個人提供高品質(zhì)的文獻資訊及服務(wù)。ACS出版的期刊有34種，這些期刊在化學領(lǐng)域中是被引用次數(shù)最多的化學期刊，Energy＆Fuels即是其中一本。
2．the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美國地質(zhì)學家M．King Hubbert于1956年創(chuàng)建的，這是一個隨時間增長的模型，Hubbert將其引入油氣田開發(fā)，經(jīng)推導(dǎo)使其成為一個可以預(yù)測油氣田累積產(chǎn)量、瞬時產(chǎn)量、年產(chǎn)量和可采儲量等多項開發(fā)指標的多功能預(yù)測模型。
3．a(chǎn) bell shaped curve：鐘形曲線
4．that of peak oil：that指代concept。
5．a(chǎn)ccount for：說明，解釋
6．conventional crude oil：常規(guī)原油
7．oil reserves：石油儲量。通常使用復(fù)數(shù)形式reserves。
練習：1．Which of the following is closest in meaning to the word "sparked" appearing in paragraph 2?
A．flashed
B．stimulated
C．changed
D．ended
2．The term "a bell shaped curve" appearing in paragraph 2 indicates that global oil production will
A．take the shape of a flat curve．
B．keep growing．
C．keep declining．
D．start to decline after global oil production peaks．
3．Which of the following is NOT true of the Hubbert model?
A．It successfully predicted that oil production peaked in the U．S．in l 970．
B．It has been used to predict oil production in many countries．
C．It is insufficient to explain oil production cycles in some countries．
D．It provides a very realistic and accurate oil production．
4．What is the major achievement of the new study mentioned in the last paragraph?
A．It predicts global oil production will peak in 2014．
B．It predicts oil production will decline in 47 countries．
C．It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model．
D．It discovers a new trend of Worldwide oil production．
5．Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model?
A．American scientists．
B．Kuwaiti scientists．
C．British scientists．
D．Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries．
答案與題解：1．B spark一詞做及物動詞使用時有"發(fā)動"、"激發(fā)"的意思，在此意為stimulated，即"引發(fā)"，這個句子的意思是：全球石油消費的快速增長已引發(fā)了對"石油峰值"預(yù)測的興趣。
2．D此句接下來的句子中所提到的a related concept即是與a bell shaped curve相關(guān)的概念，也就是說，接下來的這個句子對a bell shaped curve做了解釋，即世界石油生產(chǎn)達到峰值后將下降。
3．D 文章的第三段告訴我們，Hubbert預(yù)測模型精確地預(yù)測到美國石油生產(chǎn)于1970年將達到峰值。這一模型自受到公認后，已用于預(yù)測世界石油生產(chǎn)。第四段說，這一模型對于某些國家更加復(fù)雜的石油生產(chǎn)周期而言，其計算尚不充分。這些生產(chǎn)周期受到技術(shù)的改變、政策和其他因素的很大影響。所以，A、B和C都是對Hubbert模型的正確說明。
4．A選項8、C和D所述內(nèi)容均未在文章中提到。最后一段告訴我們，科學家使用新的模型評估了47個主要的產(chǎn)油國家的石油生產(chǎn)趨勢，并預(yù)計全球常規(guī)原油生產(chǎn)到2014年將達峰值。所以，A是答案。5．B 短文第一段的第一個句子提供了答案。
第二篇 世界原油產(chǎn)量可能提前十年達到峰值
科威特科學家預(yù)測世界常規(guī)原油產(chǎn)量將在2014年達到峰值，這一發(fā)現(xiàn)可能會促進儲存石油的努力。這一預(yù)測比其他預(yù)測提前了將近十年，已經(jīng)發(fā)表在美國化學學會《能量與燃料》雜志上。
伊布赫姆·納夏威和同事們指出，全球石油消耗的快速增長使人們對“石油峰值”預(yù)測的興趣越來越濃?！笆头逯怠敝傅氖鞘彤a(chǎn)量達到值后開始 下降的時間點?？茖W家已經(jīng)構(gòu)建了幾個模型來預(yù)測這一時間，有些模型認為這一時間在2020年或更晚。其中最的預(yù)測模型之一是赫伯特模型。赫伯特模型認 為世界石油產(chǎn)量呈鐘形曲線，與此相關(guān)的概念是“石油峰值”。這一術(shù)語指的是世界石油產(chǎn)量達到峰值的那一刻，之后將呈現(xiàn)無法逆轉(zhuǎn)的下降趨勢。
赫伯特模型精確地預(yù)測到美國石油產(chǎn)量于1970年達到峰值。這一模型從此受到歡迎，已經(jīng)用于預(yù)測世界石油生產(chǎn)。
但是，最近研究表明，這一模型不足以解釋某些國家更加復(fù)雜的石油生產(chǎn)周期。科學家稱，這些生產(chǎn)周期受到技術(shù)變化、政策和其他因素的很大影響。
最近研究描述了赫伯特模型的新版本，提供了更加實際、更加準確的石油生產(chǎn)預(yù)測?？茖W家使用新模型評估了47個主要產(chǎn)油國家的石油生產(chǎn)趨勢，這 47個國家是世界常規(guī)原油的主要提供者?？茖W家預(yù)計全球常規(guī)原油產(chǎn)量將于2014年達到峰值，比之前預(yù)計的要早很多年?？茖W家還指出，世界石油儲量正在以 2.1%的速度逐年減少，他們認為新模型會幫助做出與能源相關(guān)的決定，幫助進行國家政策辯論。
In a finding that may speed efforts to conserve oil, scientists in Kuwait predict that world conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014. This prediction is almost a decade earlier than some other predictions．Their study is in ACS’ Energy＆Fuels1．
Ibrahim Nashawi and colleagues point out that rapid growth in global oil consumption has sparked a growing interest in predicting "peak oil"．"Peak oil "is the point where oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. Scientists have developed several models to forecast this point, and some put the date at 2020 or later. One of the most famous forecast models is called the Hubbert model2. It assumes that global oil production will follow a bell shaped curve3. A related concept is that4 of "Peak Oil." The term "Peal Oil" indicates the moment in which world wide production Will peak, afterwards to start on irreversible decline．
The Hubbert model accurately predicted that oil production would peak in the United States in 1970. The model has since gained in popularity and has been used to forecast oil production worldwide．
However, recent studies show that the model is insufficient to account for5 more complex oil production cycles of some countries．Those cycles can be heavily influenced by technology changes, politics, and other factors, the scientists say.
The new study describes development of a new version of the Hubbert model that provides a more realistic and accurate oil production forecast．Using the new model, the scientists evaluated the oil production trends of 47 major oil-producing countries, which supply most of the world’s conventional crude oil6．They estimated that worldwide conventional crude oil production will peak in 2014, years earlier than anticipated. The scientists also showed that the world's oil reserves7 are
being reduced at a rate of 2.1 percent a year. The new model could help inform energy-related decisions and public policy debate, they suggest.
詞匯：Conserve v． 保護，保存
crude oil原油
spark v．閃耀；激發(fā)；鼓舞
curve n．曲線
irreversible adj．不可逆的，不可改變的
insufficient adj.充分的，不足的
注釋：1．ACS' Energy & Fuels：ACS是American Chemical Society(美國化學學會)的縮寫。該學會成立于l876年，現(xiàn)已成為世界的科技協(xié)會。多年來，ACS一直致力于為全球化學研究機構(gòu)、企業(yè)及個人提供高品質(zhì)的文獻資訊及服務(wù)。ACS出版的期刊有34種，這些期刊在化學領(lǐng)域中是被引用次數(shù)最多的化學期刊，Energy＆Fuels即是其中一本。
2．the Hubbert model：赫伯特模型是美國地質(zhì)學家M．King Hubbert于1956年創(chuàng)建的，這是一個隨時間增長的模型，Hubbert將其引入油氣田開發(fā)，經(jīng)推導(dǎo)使其成為一個可以預(yù)測油氣田累積產(chǎn)量、瞬時產(chǎn)量、年產(chǎn)量和可采儲量等多項開發(fā)指標的多功能預(yù)測模型。
3．a(chǎn) bell shaped curve：鐘形曲線
4．that of peak oil：that指代concept。
5．a(chǎn)ccount for：說明，解釋
6．conventional crude oil：常規(guī)原油
7．oil reserves：石油儲量。通常使用復(fù)數(shù)形式reserves。
練習：1．Which of the following is closest in meaning to the word "sparked" appearing in paragraph 2?
A．flashed
B．stimulated
C．changed
D．ended
2．The term "a bell shaped curve" appearing in paragraph 2 indicates that global oil production will
A．take the shape of a flat curve．
B．keep growing．
C．keep declining．
D．start to decline after global oil production peaks．
3．Which of the following is NOT true of the Hubbert model?
A．It successfully predicted that oil production peaked in the U．S．in l 970．
B．It has been used to predict oil production in many countries．
C．It is insufficient to explain oil production cycles in some countries．
D．It provides a very realistic and accurate oil production．
4．What is the major achievement of the new study mentioned in the last paragraph?
A．It predicts global oil production will peak in 2014．
B．It predicts oil production will decline in 47 countries．
C．It confirms further the effectiveness of the Hubbert model．
D．It discovers a new trend of Worldwide oil production．
5．Who develop the new version of the Hubbert model?
A．American scientists．
B．Kuwaiti scientists．
C．British scientists．
D．Scientists of 47 major oil-producing countries．
答案與題解：1．B spark一詞做及物動詞使用時有"發(fā)動"、"激發(fā)"的意思，在此意為stimulated，即"引發(fā)"，這個句子的意思是：全球石油消費的快速增長已引發(fā)了對"石油峰值"預(yù)測的興趣。
2．D此句接下來的句子中所提到的a related concept即是與a bell shaped curve相關(guān)的概念，也就是說，接下來的這個句子對a bell shaped curve做了解釋，即世界石油生產(chǎn)達到峰值后將下降。
3．D 文章的第三段告訴我們，Hubbert預(yù)測模型精確地預(yù)測到美國石油生產(chǎn)于1970年將達到峰值。這一模型自受到公認后，已用于預(yù)測世界石油生產(chǎn)。第四段說，這一模型對于某些國家更加復(fù)雜的石油生產(chǎn)周期而言，其計算尚不充分。這些生產(chǎn)周期受到技術(shù)的改變、政策和其他因素的很大影響。所以，A、B和C都是對Hubbert模型的正確說明。
4．A選項8、C和D所述內(nèi)容均未在文章中提到。最后一段告訴我們，科學家使用新的模型評估了47個主要的產(chǎn)油國家的石油生產(chǎn)趨勢，并預(yù)計全球常規(guī)原油生產(chǎn)到2014年將達峰值。所以，A是答案。5．B 短文第一段的第一個句子提供了答案。
第二篇 世界原油產(chǎn)量可能提前十年達到峰值
科威特科學家預(yù)測世界常規(guī)原油產(chǎn)量將在2014年達到峰值，這一發(fā)現(xiàn)可能會促進儲存石油的努力。這一預(yù)測比其他預(yù)測提前了將近十年，已經(jīng)發(fā)表在美國化學學會《能量與燃料》雜志上。
伊布赫姆·納夏威和同事們指出，全球石油消耗的快速增長使人們對“石油峰值”預(yù)測的興趣越來越濃?！笆头逯怠敝傅氖鞘彤a(chǎn)量達到值后開始 下降的時間點?？茖W家已經(jīng)構(gòu)建了幾個模型來預(yù)測這一時間，有些模型認為這一時間在2020年或更晚。其中最的預(yù)測模型之一是赫伯特模型。赫伯特模型認 為世界石油產(chǎn)量呈鐘形曲線，與此相關(guān)的概念是“石油峰值”。這一術(shù)語指的是世界石油產(chǎn)量達到峰值的那一刻，之后將呈現(xiàn)無法逆轉(zhuǎn)的下降趨勢。
赫伯特模型精確地預(yù)測到美國石油產(chǎn)量于1970年達到峰值。這一模型從此受到歡迎，已經(jīng)用于預(yù)測世界石油生產(chǎn)。
但是，最近研究表明，這一模型不足以解釋某些國家更加復(fù)雜的石油生產(chǎn)周期。科學家稱，這些生產(chǎn)周期受到技術(shù)變化、政策和其他因素的很大影響。
最近研究描述了赫伯特模型的新版本，提供了更加實際、更加準確的石油生產(chǎn)預(yù)測?？茖W家使用新模型評估了47個主要產(chǎn)油國家的石油生產(chǎn)趨勢，這 47個國家是世界常規(guī)原油的主要提供者?？茖W家預(yù)計全球常規(guī)原油產(chǎn)量將于2014年達到峰值，比之前預(yù)計的要早很多年?？茖W家還指出，世界石油儲量正在以 2.1%的速度逐年減少，他們認為新模型會幫助做出與能源相關(guān)的決定，幫助進行國家政策辯論。