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Come June, the International Monetary Fund will probably decide to include the Chinese renminbi in its special drawing rights (SDR).
6月將至，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)很可能將決定把人民幣納入其特別提款權(quán)(SDR)貨幣籃子。 Though the move is largely symbolic, the symbolism is huge. It is another acknowledgment of China’s growing stature in the global economy and financial markets. It is also a marker underscoring how swiftly China is moving to dismantle capital controls, in line with the reform policies of the People’s Bank of China. 盡管此舉主要是象征性的，但象征的意義卻很大。這是對(duì)中國(guó)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)中地位不斷上升的再次認(rèn)可。這也是一種標(biāo)志，突顯出中國(guó)正多么迅速地按照中國(guó)央行的改革政策，采取措施解除資本管制。
That in turn has implications for investors. It will mean China could soon assume an even larger weight in crucial global financial markets. For example, today, China is a mere 2.5 per cent of the MSCI All Country World Index, based on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. But, when the powers that be decide the currency is convertible enough, onshore Chinese shares could be included in the index, which means its share of the index could rise to more than 10 per cent, according to Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Asset Management.
這進(jìn)而會(huì)對(duì)投資者產(chǎn)生影響。此舉將意味著，不久之后中國(guó)可能會(huì)在關(guān)鍵的全球金融市場(chǎng)中占據(jù)越來(lái)越大的權(quán)重。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，目前中國(guó)在摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際全球指數(shù)(MSCI All-Country World Index)中的權(quán)重僅為2.5%，這個(gè)數(shù)字是基于在香港上市的H股得出的。但是，當(dāng)權(quán)威人士認(rèn)定人民幣可兌換性已足夠強(qiáng)時(shí)，A股可能會(huì)被納入該指數(shù)。摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的邁克爾•琴巴萊斯特(Michael Cembalest)表示，這意味著中國(guó)在該指數(shù)中所占權(quán)重可能會(huì)升至10%以上。 Today, the renminbi is most visible as the currency in which a growing portion of Chinese trade is denominated. Chinese companies often offer more attractive prices and financing to counterparts that will trade in renminbi, thereby eliminating their own foreign exchange risk. 如今，隨著中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易中以人民幣計(jì)價(jià)的比例越來(lái)越高，人民幣已成為最常用的支付貨幣之一。中國(guó)企業(yè)經(jīng)常向貿(mào)易對(duì)象提供更具吸引力的價(jià)格和融資、換取對(duì)方采用人民幣結(jié)算，從而消除自身的匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 More importantly, the renminbi is also growing in stature as an investable currency. Today, Mr Cembalest adds, central banks and sovereign wealth funds have invested between Rmb300bn and Rmb400bn in renminbi-denominated assets. While most of these are in Asia, the European Central Bank has also said it is considering investing in such assets. 更重要的是，人民幣作為可投資貨幣的地位也在上升。琴巴萊斯特補(bǔ)充稱，如今，各國(guó)央行和主權(quán)財(cái)富基金投資的人民幣計(jì)價(jià)資產(chǎn)在3000億至4000億元人民幣之間。這些機(jī)構(gòu)大多來(lái)自亞洲，不過(guò)，歐洲央行(ECB)也表示正考慮投資人民幣資產(chǎn)。 Moreover, Japanese central bankers say they are considering agreements whereby the Bank of Japan and the PBoC would expand investing in each other’s government bond markets (assuming the forthcoming anniversary of the end of the second world war does not lead to a new outbreak of hostilities between the two countries). The two central banks are also considering resuming swap lines. China already has almost Rmb10tn of such arrangements with 30 central banks. 此外，日本央行(BoJ)官員表示，他們正考慮與中國(guó)央行達(dá)成協(xié)議，擴(kuò)大對(duì)彼此國(guó)債的投資（前提是即將到來(lái)的二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束周年紀(jì)念活動(dòng)不導(dǎo)致兩國(guó)之間爆發(fā)新的對(duì)抗）。這兩國(guó)的央行還在考慮恢復(fù)貨幣互換。中國(guó)已與30家央行達(dá)成了規(guī)模近10萬(wàn)億元人民幣的貨幣互換協(xié)議。 Meanwhile, China’s young asset management groups and securities firms are designing ever more products in local currency both onshore and offshore, where Rmb2tn in deposits sits, most of them in Hong Kong. 同時(shí)，中國(guó)年輕的資產(chǎn)管理集團(tuán)和券商正在設(shè)計(jì)更多以本幣計(jì)價(jià)的在岸和離岸產(chǎn)品。離岸人民幣存款規(guī)模達(dá)2萬(wàn)億元人民幣，其中大多數(shù)位于香港。 China does not have to remove all controls on its currency, particularly rules on portfolio investment flows, for it to qualify for inclusion in the IMF basket. Even today, only four items out of 40, or less than 15 per cent of the capital account, have restrictions, according to Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC in Hong Kong. After all, even Singapore and Hong Kong retain some constraints on their currencies. The Chinese government’s willingness to remove restrictions on the renminbi comes in the face of widespread fears, especially outside China, of slowing economic growth on the mainland and of a possible debt crisis, given the fact that debt in China has grown by 70 per cent since the global financial crisis in 2008. 取消對(duì)人民幣的一切管制、特別是針對(duì)證券投資流動(dòng)的規(guī)定，并非人民幣夠格被納入IMF貨幣籃子的必要條件。駐香港的匯豐(HSBC)首席中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家屈宏斌表示，即便是現(xiàn)在，人民幣資本項(xiàng)目40個(gè)子項(xiàng)中也只有4個(gè)（也就是不到15%）不可兌換。畢竟，就連新加坡和香港也對(duì)自己的貨幣保留了部分限制。在人們、尤其是中國(guó)以外的人們對(duì)中國(guó)內(nèi)地經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩和可能爆發(fā)的債務(wù)危機(jī)（2008年全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái)中國(guó)的債務(wù)增加了70%）普遍感到擔(dān)憂之際，中國(guó)政府還是展現(xiàn)出了解除人民幣管制的意愿。 The combination of offshore flows from various conglomerates and diminishing returns on domestic investment suggests that as China lifts controls, at least over a short period of time, the renminbi will lose value. After all, in the past three quarters, there has been about $333bn in outflows of hot money from China, (much of them from companies hedging or repaying their dollar debt). Moreover, reserves, which ended the year at $3.8tn, declined to $3.73tn at the end of the first quarter. 形形色色的企業(yè)集團(tuán)將資金轉(zhuǎn)往海外，而國(guó)內(nèi)投資回報(bào)又不斷下降，這兩點(diǎn)結(jié)合在一起，意味著假如中國(guó)解除人民幣管制，人民幣至少在短期內(nèi)將會(huì)貶值。畢竟，過(guò)去3個(gè)季度，有大約3330億美元熱錢流出了中國(guó)（許多都是通過(guò)企業(yè)對(duì)沖或償還美元債務(wù)的方式流出的）。此外，截至今年一季度末，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備從去年底的3.8萬(wàn)億美元降至3.73萬(wàn)億美元。 So far, the renminbi has been one of the few currencies to hold its value against the dollar in a world of increasing competitive devaluations. China has recently started to ease monetary policy, but is trying to do so in a more measured way than either Japan or Europe. A one-time competitive devaluation to support exports is less attractive to the Chinese than the gradual appreciation that makes its currency attractive as a store of value. The growing legitimacy of the renminbi also comes at a time when the rest of the world is looking for a credible alternative to the dollar as the only real reserve currency. Cliff Tan, MUFG economist, jokes that the acronym SDR should stand for “some day renminbi”. That “some day” is fast approaching. 在世界各國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貨幣貶值愈演愈烈之際，人民幣迄今為止是少數(shù)幾個(gè)相對(duì)美元幣值保持堅(jiān)挺的貨幣之一。中國(guó)最近開(kāi)始放松貨幣政策，但相對(duì)于日本或歐洲，中國(guó)在努力以更謹(jǐn)慎的方式做這件事。對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，與其實(shí)施一次性的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值以支持出口，不如緩慢升值以增加人民幣作為價(jià)值儲(chǔ)藏手段的吸引力。此外，人民幣正統(tǒng)地位日益增強(qiáng)的同時(shí)，世界其余國(guó)家正在尋找美元的可靠替代品，以作為的實(shí)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣。三菱日聯(lián)金融集團(tuán)(MUFG)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陳仲華(Cliff Tan)戲稱，SDR這個(gè)英文縮寫應(yīng)該代表“some day renminbi（有朝一日將是人民幣）”。這一天正迅速臨近。
Come June, the International Monetary Fund will probably decide to include the Chinese renminbi in its special drawing rights (SDR).
6月將至，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)很可能將決定把人民幣納入其特別提款權(quán)(SDR)貨幣籃子。 Though the move is largely symbolic, the symbolism is huge. It is another acknowledgment of China’s growing stature in the global economy and financial markets. It is also a marker underscoring how swiftly China is moving to dismantle capital controls, in line with the reform policies of the People’s Bank of China. 盡管此舉主要是象征性的，但象征的意義卻很大。這是對(duì)中國(guó)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)中地位不斷上升的再次認(rèn)可。這也是一種標(biāo)志，突顯出中國(guó)正多么迅速地按照中國(guó)央行的改革政策，采取措施解除資本管制。
That in turn has implications for investors. It will mean China could soon assume an even larger weight in crucial global financial markets. For example, today, China is a mere 2.5 per cent of the MSCI All Country World Index, based on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. But, when the powers that be decide the currency is convertible enough, onshore Chinese shares could be included in the index, which means its share of the index could rise to more than 10 per cent, according to Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Asset Management.
這進(jìn)而會(huì)對(duì)投資者產(chǎn)生影響。此舉將意味著，不久之后中國(guó)可能會(huì)在關(guān)鍵的全球金融市場(chǎng)中占據(jù)越來(lái)越大的權(quán)重。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，目前中國(guó)在摩根士丹利資本國(guó)際全球指數(shù)(MSCI All-Country World Index)中的權(quán)重僅為2.5%，這個(gè)數(shù)字是基于在香港上市的H股得出的。但是，當(dāng)權(quán)威人士認(rèn)定人民幣可兌換性已足夠強(qiáng)時(shí)，A股可能會(huì)被納入該指數(shù)。摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的邁克爾•琴巴萊斯特(Michael Cembalest)表示，這意味著中國(guó)在該指數(shù)中所占權(quán)重可能會(huì)升至10%以上。 Today, the renminbi is most visible as the currency in which a growing portion of Chinese trade is denominated. Chinese companies often offer more attractive prices and financing to counterparts that will trade in renminbi, thereby eliminating their own foreign exchange risk. 如今，隨著中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易中以人民幣計(jì)價(jià)的比例越來(lái)越高，人民幣已成為最常用的支付貨幣之一。中國(guó)企業(yè)經(jīng)常向貿(mào)易對(duì)象提供更具吸引力的價(jià)格和融資、換取對(duì)方采用人民幣結(jié)算，從而消除自身的匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 More importantly, the renminbi is also growing in stature as an investable currency. Today, Mr Cembalest adds, central banks and sovereign wealth funds have invested between Rmb300bn and Rmb400bn in renminbi-denominated assets. While most of these are in Asia, the European Central Bank has also said it is considering investing in such assets. 更重要的是，人民幣作為可投資貨幣的地位也在上升。琴巴萊斯特補(bǔ)充稱，如今，各國(guó)央行和主權(quán)財(cái)富基金投資的人民幣計(jì)價(jià)資產(chǎn)在3000億至4000億元人民幣之間。這些機(jī)構(gòu)大多來(lái)自亞洲，不過(guò)，歐洲央行(ECB)也表示正考慮投資人民幣資產(chǎn)。 Moreover, Japanese central bankers say they are considering agreements whereby the Bank of Japan and the PBoC would expand investing in each other’s government bond markets (assuming the forthcoming anniversary of the end of the second world war does not lead to a new outbreak of hostilities between the two countries). The two central banks are also considering resuming swap lines. China already has almost Rmb10tn of such arrangements with 30 central banks. 此外，日本央行(BoJ)官員表示，他們正考慮與中國(guó)央行達(dá)成協(xié)議，擴(kuò)大對(duì)彼此國(guó)債的投資（前提是即將到來(lái)的二戰(zhàn)結(jié)束周年紀(jì)念活動(dòng)不導(dǎo)致兩國(guó)之間爆發(fā)新的對(duì)抗）。這兩國(guó)的央行還在考慮恢復(fù)貨幣互換。中國(guó)已與30家央行達(dá)成了規(guī)模近10萬(wàn)億元人民幣的貨幣互換協(xié)議。 Meanwhile, China’s young asset management groups and securities firms are designing ever more products in local currency both onshore and offshore, where Rmb2tn in deposits sits, most of them in Hong Kong. 同時(shí)，中國(guó)年輕的資產(chǎn)管理集團(tuán)和券商正在設(shè)計(jì)更多以本幣計(jì)價(jià)的在岸和離岸產(chǎn)品。離岸人民幣存款規(guī)模達(dá)2萬(wàn)億元人民幣，其中大多數(shù)位于香港。 China does not have to remove all controls on its currency, particularly rules on portfolio investment flows, for it to qualify for inclusion in the IMF basket. Even today, only four items out of 40, or less than 15 per cent of the capital account, have restrictions, according to Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC in Hong Kong. After all, even Singapore and Hong Kong retain some constraints on their currencies. The Chinese government’s willingness to remove restrictions on the renminbi comes in the face of widespread fears, especially outside China, of slowing economic growth on the mainland and of a possible debt crisis, given the fact that debt in China has grown by 70 per cent since the global financial crisis in 2008. 取消對(duì)人民幣的一切管制、特別是針對(duì)證券投資流動(dòng)的規(guī)定，并非人民幣夠格被納入IMF貨幣籃子的必要條件。駐香港的匯豐(HSBC)首席中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家屈宏斌表示，即便是現(xiàn)在，人民幣資本項(xiàng)目40個(gè)子項(xiàng)中也只有4個(gè)（也就是不到15%）不可兌換。畢竟，就連新加坡和香港也對(duì)自己的貨幣保留了部分限制。在人們、尤其是中國(guó)以外的人們對(duì)中國(guó)內(nèi)地經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩和可能爆發(fā)的債務(wù)危機(jī)（2008年全球金融危機(jī)以來(lái)中國(guó)的債務(wù)增加了70%）普遍感到擔(dān)憂之際，中國(guó)政府還是展現(xiàn)出了解除人民幣管制的意愿。 The combination of offshore flows from various conglomerates and diminishing returns on domestic investment suggests that as China lifts controls, at least over a short period of time, the renminbi will lose value. After all, in the past three quarters, there has been about $333bn in outflows of hot money from China, (much of them from companies hedging or repaying their dollar debt). Moreover, reserves, which ended the year at $3.8tn, declined to $3.73tn at the end of the first quarter. 形形色色的企業(yè)集團(tuán)將資金轉(zhuǎn)往海外，而國(guó)內(nèi)投資回報(bào)又不斷下降，這兩點(diǎn)結(jié)合在一起，意味著假如中國(guó)解除人民幣管制，人民幣至少在短期內(nèi)將會(huì)貶值。畢竟，過(guò)去3個(gè)季度，有大約3330億美元熱錢流出了中國(guó)（許多都是通過(guò)企業(yè)對(duì)沖或償還美元債務(wù)的方式流出的）。此外，截至今年一季度末，中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備從去年底的3.8萬(wàn)億美元降至3.73萬(wàn)億美元。 So far, the renminbi has been one of the few currencies to hold its value against the dollar in a world of increasing competitive devaluations. China has recently started to ease monetary policy, but is trying to do so in a more measured way than either Japan or Europe. A one-time competitive devaluation to support exports is less attractive to the Chinese than the gradual appreciation that makes its currency attractive as a store of value. The growing legitimacy of the renminbi also comes at a time when the rest of the world is looking for a credible alternative to the dollar as the only real reserve currency. Cliff Tan, MUFG economist, jokes that the acronym SDR should stand for “some day renminbi”. That “some day” is fast approaching. 在世界各國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貨幣貶值愈演愈烈之際，人民幣迄今為止是少數(shù)幾個(gè)相對(duì)美元幣值保持堅(jiān)挺的貨幣之一。中國(guó)最近開(kāi)始放松貨幣政策，但相對(duì)于日本或歐洲，中國(guó)在努力以更謹(jǐn)慎的方式做這件事。對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，與其實(shí)施一次性的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性貶值以支持出口，不如緩慢升值以增加人民幣作為價(jià)值儲(chǔ)藏手段的吸引力。此外，人民幣正統(tǒng)地位日益增強(qiáng)的同時(shí)，世界其余國(guó)家正在尋找美元的可靠替代品，以作為的實(shí)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣。三菱日聯(lián)金融集團(tuán)(MUFG)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陳仲華(Cliff Tan)戲稱，SDR這個(gè)英文縮寫應(yīng)該代表“some day renminbi（有朝一日將是人民幣）”。這一天正迅速臨近。