英語資源頻道為大家整理的china daily 雙語新聞：買黃金不如投資農(nóng)業(yè)，供大家閱讀參考。
Renowned American investor Jim Rogers has attracted global attention with his prediction that gold prices will fall to $900 an ounce. His words carry weight not just because of his years in the industry, but because two years ago the retired hedge fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, correctly said that gold – then hitting peak prices – would drop to $1,200 an ounce.
的美國投資者吉姆•羅杰斯(Jim Rogers)因其有關(guān)黃金價(jià)格將跌至每盎司900美元的預(yù)測(cè)吸引了全世界的注意力。他的講話具有市場(chǎng)影響力不僅僅是由于他深厚的行業(yè)歷練，還因?yàn)閮赡昵斑@名退休的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理（他曾與喬治•索羅斯(George Soros)共同創(chuàng)立量子基金(Quantum Fund)）成功地預(yù)測(cè)到了當(dāng)時(shí)漲至峰值的黃金價(jià)格將跌至每盎司1200美元。
Gold, he repeatedly warns, is not a mystical commodity and its real bottom will not be reached until those investors who think it cannot fall have all left the market.
他不斷地警告稱，黃金并不是一種神秘的商品，只有當(dāng)那些認(rèn)為黃金價(jià)格不會(huì)下跌的投資者全部退出市場(chǎng)以后，金價(jià)才有可能真正觸底。
Mr Rogers is on a mission to convince the investment world to look seriously at agriculture. He explains to Elaine Moore why he thinks it will be a source of profit for years to come.
羅杰斯力圖說服投資界認(rèn)真考察農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。他向伊萊恩•摩爾(Elaine Moore)解釋了自己為何認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)在未來幾年將成為一大投資收益來源。
Why do you think gold prices are going to keep falling?
問：你為何認(rèn)為黃金價(jià)格將持續(xù)下跌？
Gold has gone up 12 years in a row, which is terribly unusual for any asset, so it would be an anomaly if there was not a correction.
答：黃金價(jià)格已經(jīng)持續(xù)上漲了12年，這對(duì)任何一種資產(chǎn)來說都是極其罕見的，因此市場(chǎng)若不出現(xiàn)一次回調(diào)的話將會(huì)非常反常。
I am terrible at market timing but I expect gold to go down 50 per cent from its peak, which would take it to about $900. I’m not selling gold at the moment but if it falls or if it gets down there, then I hope I will be smart enough to buy more.
我并不善于找準(zhǔn)市場(chǎng)時(shí)點(diǎn)，但我預(yù)計(jì)黃金價(jià)格相對(duì)于其峰值將下跌50%，也就是說跌至約每盎司900美元的水平?，F(xiàn)階段我并沒有賣出黃金，但如果黃金價(jià)格下跌或者跌至上述水平，那我希望自己到時(shí)能夠足夠明智地購買更多黃金。
Why does gold attract so much attention?
問：為什么黃金會(huì)引發(fā)如此強(qiáng)烈的關(guān)注？
I can’t tell you why, but I always have the same experience. When I speak at investment events there is always someone asking about gold. I’d rather talk about agriculture.
答：我無法告訴你原因何在，但我對(duì)此有著切身感受。當(dāng)我在投資界的活動(dòng)上發(fā)言時(shí)，總會(huì)有人問起黃金。而我更愿意談?wù)勣r(nóng)業(yè)。
What do you want to say about agriculture?
問：關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)你想談些什么？
I think there is more money to be made in agriculture. I don’t think we’ve had the final bottom in gold but we must be nearing it in sugar. Sugar is down 75 per cent from its all-time high – there’s not much in the world that’s down 75 per cent.
答：我認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域更具獲利前景。我認(rèn)為黃金價(jià)格還沒有跌至終極低點(diǎn)，但蔗糖價(jià)格已經(jīng)接近底部。蔗糖價(jià)格相對(duì)于其歷史水平已經(jīng)下跌了75%——世界上很少有什么資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格跌幅達(dá)到了75%。
I think that farming is going to become one of the most exciting professions in the next 20 years. The average age of a farmer in the US is 58, in Korea it’s 65. It is an old profession and the people in it are dying out or retiring. In the US, more people study public relations than agriculture.
我認(rèn)為，農(nóng)業(yè)將成為未來20年中最激動(dòng)人心的職業(yè)發(fā)展領(lǐng)域之一。目前美國農(nóng)民的平均年齡為58歲，韓國則為65歲。農(nóng)業(yè)是一個(gè)老齡化的行業(yè)，從業(yè)者要么臨近退休，要么衰老死去。在美國，學(xué)習(xí)公共關(guān)系的人比學(xué)習(xí)農(nóng)業(yè)的人更多。
The world is facing a serious demographic and production problem. If something doesn’t change then we won’t have food at any price. Prices will have to go up a lot to attract labour and the Food and Agriculture Organisation has tried to get people to see this crisis. They see what I see. What more do you need to know?
目前全球面臨著嚴(yán)峻的人口結(jié)構(gòu)及糧食生產(chǎn)問題。如果不做出改變，那么無論支付怎樣的高價(jià)，我們也買不到糧食。糧食價(jià)格必須大幅上漲才能吸引到進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)所需的勞動(dòng)力，聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織(UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)為使人們認(rèn)識(shí)到這場(chǎng)危機(jī)做出了努力。他們已經(jīng)看到了我所看到的問題。你還需要再知道些什么呢？
People blame it on speculators but it isn’t about them – it’s about the fact that inventories are now at the lowest they’ve been in recorded history and even though we have had good crops in the past decade, production cannot keep up with demand. In the past if we had problems with the weather, then we had huge inventories. But now we don’t have inventories and we don’t have farmers.
人們把糧食漲價(jià)的責(zé)任歸咎于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品投機(jī)者，但問題并不是由他們?cè)斐傻摹獑栴}的根源在于，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品儲(chǔ)備量現(xiàn)已跌至歷史低點(diǎn)，雖然近十年來我們的糧食收成不錯(cuò)，但產(chǎn)出跟不上需求的增長。過去如果我們遇到了天氣問題，我們尚且有大規(guī)模的糧食儲(chǔ)備應(yīng)急。而現(xiàn)在我們既缺乏糧食儲(chǔ)備，又缺少種糧的農(nóng)民。
Why isn’t there more interest in this sector?
問：為什么對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)感興趣的人不多？
We’ve had long cycles where the financial sector was in charge, followed by times when the people who make things were in charge. We’re at a midpoint now.
答：我們經(jīng)歷了金融行業(yè)占主導(dǎo)地位的長周期，隨后又經(jīng)歷了制造業(yè)人士引領(lǐng)潮流的時(shí)期。現(xiàn)在我們正處于一個(gè)中間點(diǎn)。
When I was at college [Mr Rogers was born in 1942] people used to talk about the City and Wall Street as backwaters. Now the kids at Oxford all want to start hedge funds. But the fundamentals have changed so much. There is so much competition in finance and banking in the rest of the world, we have gigantic leverage in the industry and now every government is coming down hard against financial types. I think finance is going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20, 30 years.
當(dāng)我還在大學(xué)讀書的時(shí)候（羅杰斯生于1942年），人們習(xí)慣于將倫敦金融城以及華爾街稱為死水一樣的落后地方?，F(xiàn)如今，牛津大學(xué)(Oxford University)的學(xué)生們都想要成立對(duì)沖基金。但這個(gè)行業(yè)的基本狀況已經(jīng)發(fā)生了很大變化。世界其他地區(qū)的金融與銀行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非常激烈，行業(yè)內(nèi)的杠桿水平很高，并且現(xiàn)在每個(gè)國家的政府都在嚴(yán)加管束金融業(yè)人士。我認(rèn)為在未來的10年、20年甚至30年中，金融都將是一個(gè)糟糕的職業(yè)方向。
You set up the RICI [Rogers International Commodity Index] in the late 1990s, how are you investing in agriculture?
問：你在二十世紀(jì)九十年代晚期創(chuàng)立了羅杰斯國際商品指數(shù)(Rogers International Commodity Index)，你在農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域是如何進(jìn)行投資的呢？
I mainly buy agricultural products – farms. I buy publicly traded farms in Australia and Indonesia and Africa. But you can invest in tractors and fertilisers and seeds – there are lots of ways into this.
答：我主要購買的是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品——還有農(nóng)場(chǎng)。我在澳大利亞、印度尼西亞以及非洲收購公開交易的農(nóng)場(chǎng)。你也可以投資于拖拉機(jī)、肥料以及種子——有很多投資農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域的途徑。
What else are you currently investing in?
問：目前你還投資于其他哪些領(lǐng)域？
Well, apart from agriculture I’m looking at the US dollar because there will be more currency turmoil in the future and I think a lot of people are going to flee to the US dollar as a haven. The Chinese currency will also continue to be strong, and sugar, which I’ve mentioned. I’m also buying shares in airlines and I’m looking at Russia, which I’ve been pessimistic about since 1966, but which I’m now changing my views on.
答：除了農(nóng)業(yè)以外，我還關(guān)注美元走勢(shì)，因?yàn)槲磥韰R率市場(chǎng)還將出現(xiàn)更多的動(dòng)蕩，而我認(rèn)為將有很多人大規(guī)模買入美元作為避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)。人民幣匯率也將繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)，還有我之前提過的蔗糖。此外我還購買航空公司的股票，并關(guān)注俄羅斯局勢(shì)，自從1966年以來我對(duì)該國一直持悲觀態(tài)度，但我正在調(diào)整自己的這一觀點(diǎn)。
What are your views on passive investment?
問：你對(duì)被動(dòng)投資模式怎么看？
There are plenty of studies that show that index investing outperforms 80 per cent of active managers, so passive investing is the best way for most investors. If you are a good stock picker then, sure, do that, but the evidence is so strong that basically most people should use passive investments.
答：大量研究顯示，指數(shù)化投資的收益高于80%的主動(dòng)型投資經(jīng)理。因此被動(dòng)投資對(duì)于絕大多數(shù)投資者而言是選擇。如果你善于挑選股票，那么你當(dāng)然可以這么做，但相關(guān)研究證據(jù)極具說服力地表明，基本上，大多數(shù)人都應(yīng)采用被動(dòng)投資。
Renowned American investor Jim Rogers has attracted global attention with his prediction that gold prices will fall to $900 an ounce. His words carry weight not just because of his years in the industry, but because two years ago the retired hedge fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, correctly said that gold – then hitting peak prices – would drop to $1,200 an ounce.
的美國投資者吉姆•羅杰斯(Jim Rogers)因其有關(guān)黃金價(jià)格將跌至每盎司900美元的預(yù)測(cè)吸引了全世界的注意力。他的講話具有市場(chǎng)影響力不僅僅是由于他深厚的行業(yè)歷練，還因?yàn)閮赡昵斑@名退休的對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理（他曾與喬治•索羅斯(George Soros)共同創(chuàng)立量子基金(Quantum Fund)）成功地預(yù)測(cè)到了當(dāng)時(shí)漲至峰值的黃金價(jià)格將跌至每盎司1200美元。
Gold, he repeatedly warns, is not a mystical commodity and its real bottom will not be reached until those investors who think it cannot fall have all left the market.
他不斷地警告稱，黃金并不是一種神秘的商品，只有當(dāng)那些認(rèn)為黃金價(jià)格不會(huì)下跌的投資者全部退出市場(chǎng)以后，金價(jià)才有可能真正觸底。
Mr Rogers is on a mission to convince the investment world to look seriously at agriculture. He explains to Elaine Moore why he thinks it will be a source of profit for years to come.
羅杰斯力圖說服投資界認(rèn)真考察農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。他向伊萊恩•摩爾(Elaine Moore)解釋了自己為何認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)在未來幾年將成為一大投資收益來源。
Why do you think gold prices are going to keep falling?
問：你為何認(rèn)為黃金價(jià)格將持續(xù)下跌？
Gold has gone up 12 years in a row, which is terribly unusual for any asset, so it would be an anomaly if there was not a correction.
答：黃金價(jià)格已經(jīng)持續(xù)上漲了12年，這對(duì)任何一種資產(chǎn)來說都是極其罕見的，因此市場(chǎng)若不出現(xiàn)一次回調(diào)的話將會(huì)非常反常。
I am terrible at market timing but I expect gold to go down 50 per cent from its peak, which would take it to about $900. I’m not selling gold at the moment but if it falls or if it gets down there, then I hope I will be smart enough to buy more.
我并不善于找準(zhǔn)市場(chǎng)時(shí)點(diǎn)，但我預(yù)計(jì)黃金價(jià)格相對(duì)于其峰值將下跌50%，也就是說跌至約每盎司900美元的水平?，F(xiàn)階段我并沒有賣出黃金，但如果黃金價(jià)格下跌或者跌至上述水平，那我希望自己到時(shí)能夠足夠明智地購買更多黃金。
Why does gold attract so much attention?
問：為什么黃金會(huì)引發(fā)如此強(qiáng)烈的關(guān)注？
I can’t tell you why, but I always have the same experience. When I speak at investment events there is always someone asking about gold. I’d rather talk about agriculture.
答：我無法告訴你原因何在，但我對(duì)此有著切身感受。當(dāng)我在投資界的活動(dòng)上發(fā)言時(shí)，總會(huì)有人問起黃金。而我更愿意談?wù)勣r(nóng)業(yè)。
What do you want to say about agriculture?
問：關(guān)于農(nóng)業(yè)你想談些什么？
I think there is more money to be made in agriculture. I don’t think we’ve had the final bottom in gold but we must be nearing it in sugar. Sugar is down 75 per cent from its all-time high – there’s not much in the world that’s down 75 per cent.
答：我認(rèn)為農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域更具獲利前景。我認(rèn)為黃金價(jià)格還沒有跌至終極低點(diǎn)，但蔗糖價(jià)格已經(jīng)接近底部。蔗糖價(jià)格相對(duì)于其歷史水平已經(jīng)下跌了75%——世界上很少有什么資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格跌幅達(dá)到了75%。
I think that farming is going to become one of the most exciting professions in the next 20 years. The average age of a farmer in the US is 58, in Korea it’s 65. It is an old profession and the people in it are dying out or retiring. In the US, more people study public relations than agriculture.
我認(rèn)為，農(nóng)業(yè)將成為未來20年中最激動(dòng)人心的職業(yè)發(fā)展領(lǐng)域之一。目前美國農(nóng)民的平均年齡為58歲，韓國則為65歲。農(nóng)業(yè)是一個(gè)老齡化的行業(yè)，從業(yè)者要么臨近退休，要么衰老死去。在美國，學(xué)習(xí)公共關(guān)系的人比學(xué)習(xí)農(nóng)業(yè)的人更多。
The world is facing a serious demographic and production problem. If something doesn’t change then we won’t have food at any price. Prices will have to go up a lot to attract labour and the Food and Agriculture Organisation has tried to get people to see this crisis. They see what I see. What more do you need to know?
目前全球面臨著嚴(yán)峻的人口結(jié)構(gòu)及糧食生產(chǎn)問題。如果不做出改變，那么無論支付怎樣的高價(jià)，我們也買不到糧食。糧食價(jià)格必須大幅上漲才能吸引到進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)所需的勞動(dòng)力，聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織(UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)為使人們認(rèn)識(shí)到這場(chǎng)危機(jī)做出了努力。他們已經(jīng)看到了我所看到的問題。你還需要再知道些什么呢？
People blame it on speculators but it isn’t about them – it’s about the fact that inventories are now at the lowest they’ve been in recorded history and even though we have had good crops in the past decade, production cannot keep up with demand. In the past if we had problems with the weather, then we had huge inventories. But now we don’t have inventories and we don’t have farmers.
人們把糧食漲價(jià)的責(zé)任歸咎于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品投機(jī)者，但問題并不是由他們?cè)斐傻摹獑栴}的根源在于，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品儲(chǔ)備量現(xiàn)已跌至歷史低點(diǎn)，雖然近十年來我們的糧食收成不錯(cuò)，但產(chǎn)出跟不上需求的增長。過去如果我們遇到了天氣問題，我們尚且有大規(guī)模的糧食儲(chǔ)備應(yīng)急。而現(xiàn)在我們既缺乏糧食儲(chǔ)備，又缺少種糧的農(nóng)民。
Why isn’t there more interest in this sector?
問：為什么對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)感興趣的人不多？
We’ve had long cycles where the financial sector was in charge, followed by times when the people who make things were in charge. We’re at a midpoint now.
答：我們經(jīng)歷了金融行業(yè)占主導(dǎo)地位的長周期，隨后又經(jīng)歷了制造業(yè)人士引領(lǐng)潮流的時(shí)期。現(xiàn)在我們正處于一個(gè)中間點(diǎn)。
When I was at college [Mr Rogers was born in 1942] people used to talk about the City and Wall Street as backwaters. Now the kids at Oxford all want to start hedge funds. But the fundamentals have changed so much. There is so much competition in finance and banking in the rest of the world, we have gigantic leverage in the industry and now every government is coming down hard against financial types. I think finance is going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20, 30 years.
當(dāng)我還在大學(xué)讀書的時(shí)候（羅杰斯生于1942年），人們習(xí)慣于將倫敦金融城以及華爾街稱為死水一樣的落后地方?，F(xiàn)如今，牛津大學(xué)(Oxford University)的學(xué)生們都想要成立對(duì)沖基金。但這個(gè)行業(yè)的基本狀況已經(jīng)發(fā)生了很大變化。世界其他地區(qū)的金融與銀行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非常激烈，行業(yè)內(nèi)的杠桿水平很高，并且現(xiàn)在每個(gè)國家的政府都在嚴(yán)加管束金融業(yè)人士。我認(rèn)為在未來的10年、20年甚至30年中，金融都將是一個(gè)糟糕的職業(yè)方向。
You set up the RICI [Rogers International Commodity Index] in the late 1990s, how are you investing in agriculture?
問：你在二十世紀(jì)九十年代晚期創(chuàng)立了羅杰斯國際商品指數(shù)(Rogers International Commodity Index)，你在農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域是如何進(jìn)行投資的呢？
I mainly buy agricultural products – farms. I buy publicly traded farms in Australia and Indonesia and Africa. But you can invest in tractors and fertilisers and seeds – there are lots of ways into this.
答：我主要購買的是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品——還有農(nóng)場(chǎng)。我在澳大利亞、印度尼西亞以及非洲收購公開交易的農(nóng)場(chǎng)。你也可以投資于拖拉機(jī)、肥料以及種子——有很多投資農(nóng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域的途徑。
What else are you currently investing in?
問：目前你還投資于其他哪些領(lǐng)域？
Well, apart from agriculture I’m looking at the US dollar because there will be more currency turmoil in the future and I think a lot of people are going to flee to the US dollar as a haven. The Chinese currency will also continue to be strong, and sugar, which I’ve mentioned. I’m also buying shares in airlines and I’m looking at Russia, which I’ve been pessimistic about since 1966, but which I’m now changing my views on.
答：除了農(nóng)業(yè)以外，我還關(guān)注美元走勢(shì)，因?yàn)槲磥韰R率市場(chǎng)還將出現(xiàn)更多的動(dòng)蕩，而我認(rèn)為將有很多人大規(guī)模買入美元作為避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)。人民幣匯率也將繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)，還有我之前提過的蔗糖。此外我還購買航空公司的股票，并關(guān)注俄羅斯局勢(shì)，自從1966年以來我對(duì)該國一直持悲觀態(tài)度，但我正在調(diào)整自己的這一觀點(diǎn)。
What are your views on passive investment?
問：你對(duì)被動(dòng)投資模式怎么看？
There are plenty of studies that show that index investing outperforms 80 per cent of active managers, so passive investing is the best way for most investors. If you are a good stock picker then, sure, do that, but the evidence is so strong that basically most people should use passive investments.
答：大量研究顯示，指數(shù)化投資的收益高于80%的主動(dòng)型投資經(jīng)理。因此被動(dòng)投資對(duì)于絕大多數(shù)投資者而言是選擇。如果你善于挑選股票，那么你當(dāng)然可以這么做，但相關(guān)研究證據(jù)極具說服力地表明，基本上，大多數(shù)人都應(yīng)采用被動(dòng)投資。