英語資源頻道為大家整理的china daily 雙語新聞：從谷歌股價看美國經(jīng)濟(jì)興衰，供大家學(xué)習(xí)參考。
A nice easy question: is the US economy growing or shrinking? The majority view, to simplify slightly, is that increasing employment and rising house prices must amount to an expansion. Dissident pessimists have a more complicated story. The current indicators of industrial production, personal income and sales appeared to have peaked in July 2012, falling for the subsequent three months. But the first two then rebounded strongly in November. Only employment is on a clear upward trend, and it has been known to lag behind the others. Leading indicators are divided too. Building permits are up and initial unemployment claims, while not falling as fast as they were, are easing off. Yet manufacturers’ new orders are weakening and other indicators are moving sideways.
一個很簡單的問題：美國經(jīng)濟(jì)是增長還是萎縮？大多數(shù)觀點認(rèn)為，（稍微簡單化一點來說）就業(yè)增加和房價上升必定意味著擴(kuò)張。持不同意見的悲觀者則將此看得更為復(fù)雜。目前的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、個人收入及銷售額指標(biāo)看起來已在2012年7月見頂，此后三個月連續(xù)下滑。但前兩者在11月強(qiáng)勢反彈。唯有就業(yè)率呈明顯上升趨勢，但該指標(biāo)一向滯后于其他指標(biāo)。先行指標(biāo)也發(fā)出不同信號。建造許可數(shù)量上升，初期的失業(yè)金申請數(shù)量正在放緩（雖然沒有前一階段下降得那樣快）。然而，制造商新訂單正在趨緩，其他指標(biāo)則飄忽不定。
Real-world investors who fall into the bullish camp will be wanting to place their bets. So here is a nice liquid vehicle for the wager: Google. It is easy to forget that Google is cyclical, because while it is in a super-cyclical industry – advertising – it is also in a part of this industry that is taking market share. Digital advertising spending has grown 10-fold in the past decade, according to PwC data. Despite this secular tailwind, though, Google’s revenue growth bottomed at 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2009. The stock performed just as badly as the wider market in the 2007-09 rout (and has outperformed since).
現(xiàn)實世界中，看漲陣營的投資者會想要下注。那么這兒有個流動性很好的金融工具可供下注：谷歌(Google)。人們很容易忘記谷歌的業(yè)務(wù)是周期性的，因為盡管它所在行業(yè)極具周期性（廣告業(yè)），但它也置身于該行業(yè)中市場份額不斷增長的那個板塊。根據(jù)普華永道(PwC)的數(shù)據(jù)，數(shù)字廣告支出在過去10年中翻了10倍。雖然有這一大趨勢的推動，但谷歌的營收增長在2009年第二季度以3%觸底。股價表現(xiàn)在2007-09年期間與大盤表現(xiàn)一樣糟糕（此后則跑贏大盤）。
Google stock is already priced for expansion. After a disappointing third quarter hit the company’s share price, it has rebounded strongly and is near all-time highs. Revenue growth (excluding foreign exchange and the Motorola acquisition) has been 25 per cent in recent quarters. Analyst estimates reflect the expectation for only a modest slowdown in the year to come and for earnings per share growth to proceed apace. But if the economy delivers, Google’s rating (16 times 2013 earnings estimates) is very attractive, considering its fortress-like position in its core markets. Economic prognosticators, step right up.
谷歌的股價已反映其擴(kuò)張前景。其股價繼受到第三季度令人失望的業(yè)績打擊以來，已強(qiáng)勁反彈并接近歷史高點。營收增長（不包括外匯交易及摩托羅拉收購）在近幾個季度達(dá)到25%。按照分析師的預(yù)測，營收增長今年將僅溫和放緩，而每股盈利將加快增長。但只要整體經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)增長，谷歌的市盈率（16倍于2013年預(yù)期盈利）還是很有吸引力的，考慮到它在核心市場擁有堡壘般的地位。經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)言家們，站出來吧！
A nice easy question: is the US economy growing or shrinking? The majority view, to simplify slightly, is that increasing employment and rising house prices must amount to an expansion. Dissident pessimists have a more complicated story. The current indicators of industrial production, personal income and sales appeared to have peaked in July 2012, falling for the subsequent three months. But the first two then rebounded strongly in November. Only employment is on a clear upward trend, and it has been known to lag behind the others. Leading indicators are divided too. Building permits are up and initial unemployment claims, while not falling as fast as they were, are easing off. Yet manufacturers’ new orders are weakening and other indicators are moving sideways.
一個很簡單的問題：美國經(jīng)濟(jì)是增長還是萎縮？大多數(shù)觀點認(rèn)為，（稍微簡單化一點來說）就業(yè)增加和房價上升必定意味著擴(kuò)張。持不同意見的悲觀者則將此看得更為復(fù)雜。目前的工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、個人收入及銷售額指標(biāo)看起來已在2012年7月見頂，此后三個月連續(xù)下滑。但前兩者在11月強(qiáng)勢反彈。唯有就業(yè)率呈明顯上升趨勢，但該指標(biāo)一向滯后于其他指標(biāo)。先行指標(biāo)也發(fā)出不同信號。建造許可數(shù)量上升，初期的失業(yè)金申請數(shù)量正在放緩（雖然沒有前一階段下降得那樣快）。然而，制造商新訂單正在趨緩，其他指標(biāo)則飄忽不定。
Real-world investors who fall into the bullish camp will be wanting to place their bets. So here is a nice liquid vehicle for the wager: Google. It is easy to forget that Google is cyclical, because while it is in a super-cyclical industry – advertising – it is also in a part of this industry that is taking market share. Digital advertising spending has grown 10-fold in the past decade, according to PwC data. Despite this secular tailwind, though, Google’s revenue growth bottomed at 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2009. The stock performed just as badly as the wider market in the 2007-09 rout (and has outperformed since).
現(xiàn)實世界中，看漲陣營的投資者會想要下注。那么這兒有個流動性很好的金融工具可供下注：谷歌(Google)。人們很容易忘記谷歌的業(yè)務(wù)是周期性的，因為盡管它所在行業(yè)極具周期性（廣告業(yè)），但它也置身于該行業(yè)中市場份額不斷增長的那個板塊。根據(jù)普華永道(PwC)的數(shù)據(jù)，數(shù)字廣告支出在過去10年中翻了10倍。雖然有這一大趨勢的推動，但谷歌的營收增長在2009年第二季度以3%觸底。股價表現(xiàn)在2007-09年期間與大盤表現(xiàn)一樣糟糕（此后則跑贏大盤）。
Google stock is already priced for expansion. After a disappointing third quarter hit the company’s share price, it has rebounded strongly and is near all-time highs. Revenue growth (excluding foreign exchange and the Motorola acquisition) has been 25 per cent in recent quarters. Analyst estimates reflect the expectation for only a modest slowdown in the year to come and for earnings per share growth to proceed apace. But if the economy delivers, Google’s rating (16 times 2013 earnings estimates) is very attractive, considering its fortress-like position in its core markets. Economic prognosticators, step right up.
谷歌的股價已反映其擴(kuò)張前景。其股價繼受到第三季度令人失望的業(yè)績打擊以來，已強(qiáng)勁反彈并接近歷史高點。營收增長（不包括外匯交易及摩托羅拉收購）在近幾個季度達(dá)到25%。按照分析師的預(yù)測，營收增長今年將僅溫和放緩，而每股盈利將加快增長。但只要整體經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)增長，谷歌的市盈率（16倍于2013年預(yù)期盈利）還是很有吸引力的，考慮到它在核心市場擁有堡壘般的地位。經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)言家們，站出來吧！