英語資源頻道為大家整理的china daily 雙語新聞：投資英國(guó)房產(chǎn)開發(fā)商，供大家學(xué)習(xí)參考:)
Only two topics of conversation unite the British – the weather and house prices. Opinions about the latter tend to be strongly held and forcefully argued. Crest Nicholson, a housebuilder, is about to test whether the bulls are willing to back their confidence with cash by launching an initial public offering. Countrywide, an estate agency chain, is also thought to be considering a float.
只有兩個(gè)話題會(huì)讓英國(guó)人找到共同語言——天氣和房?jī)r(jià)。對(duì)后者的意見往往會(huì)引發(fā)強(qiáng)烈的觀點(diǎn)和有力的爭(zhēng)辯。英國(guó)住宅建造商Crest Nicholson將發(fā)起首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)，考驗(yàn)一下這些看漲者是否愿意用現(xiàn)金來支持他們的信心。連鎖房地產(chǎn)中介Countrywide也在考慮上市。
It is easy to see why they want to go public. Shares in the four largest quoted housebuilders are up an average 75 per cent in the past year. Savills, the largest listed residential estate agent, is up 50 per cent. And while the overall UK housing market is uninspiring (house prices fell 1 per cent in 2012, according to Nationwide, although volumes are ticking up), trends in the south, where Crest owns most of its land, are better.
很容易理解他們?yōu)槭裁匆鲜?。市值的四家住建商在過去一年中，股價(jià)平均上漲了75%。其中的住宅房地產(chǎn)商Savills，股價(jià)上漲了50%。雖然英國(guó)整體房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)并不鼓舞人心（據(jù)Nationwide數(shù)據(jù)，2012年房?jī)r(jià)下跌1%，盡管交易量有所回升），但Crest所持大部分土地所在的英國(guó)南部形勢(shì)更好些。
There are clouds on the horizon, however. Sales, especially of new-builds, are supported by government schemes designed to help buyers. If the economy improves enough to allow the government to drop those schemes, it will not be long before interest rates rise.
然而地平線上仍有烏云。銷售（尤其是新建住房的銷售）受到政府計(jì)劃的助力，這些計(jì)劃旨在幫助置業(yè)人士。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況好轉(zhuǎn)到足以讓政府放棄這些計(jì)劃，那么不久利率又會(huì)上漲了。
So housing-related IPOs will have to be priced to reflect those risks. Unlike other housebuilders, where the investment case is based around margin improvement, Crest is a play on volume growth. Assume it can increase its volumes by 15 per cent this year (a slowdown from the rate achieved in 2012), and prices and margins remain flat. That would allow it to produce net profits of about ￡60m for 2013. After their strong run, housebuilders are trading on about 14 times forecast earnings, ahead of the 10-year average of nine times. If Crest floats close to that average, its equity would be worth ￡540m, although it might need a discount even to that to get away. Plenty to keep the house market gossips talking.
所以，住建類企業(yè)上市的定價(jià)必須反映這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。投資于其他住建商的理由是基于利潤(rùn)率增長(zhǎng)，與此不同的是，投資Crest要看其產(chǎn)量的增加。假設(shè)該公司今年的建房量增長(zhǎng)15%（相比2012年的增長(zhǎng)率有所放緩），而售價(jià)和利潤(rùn)率持平。這足以讓它在2013年實(shí)現(xiàn)約6000萬英鎊的凈利潤(rùn)。經(jīng)過一輪股價(jià)上漲后，各住建商的股價(jià)現(xiàn)在大致相當(dāng)于14倍預(yù)期市盈率，遠(yuǎn)高于10年平均的9倍市盈率。若Crest的發(fā)行價(jià)能接近這一平均水平，其股權(quán)總值將達(dá)5.4億英鎊，盡管它可能仍要在這個(gè)基礎(chǔ)上提供一些折讓才能成功上市。這提供了足夠的談資，讓人們繼續(xù)閑聊房市。
Lex專欄是由FT評(píng)論家聯(lián)合撰寫的短評(píng)，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與商業(yè)進(jìn)行精辟分析
Only two topics of conversation unite the British – the weather and house prices. Opinions about the latter tend to be strongly held and forcefully argued. Crest Nicholson, a housebuilder, is about to test whether the bulls are willing to back their confidence with cash by launching an initial public offering. Countrywide, an estate agency chain, is also thought to be considering a float.
只有兩個(gè)話題會(huì)讓英國(guó)人找到共同語言——天氣和房?jī)r(jià)。對(duì)后者的意見往往會(huì)引發(fā)強(qiáng)烈的觀點(diǎn)和有力的爭(zhēng)辯。英國(guó)住宅建造商Crest Nicholson將發(fā)起首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)，考驗(yàn)一下這些看漲者是否愿意用現(xiàn)金來支持他們的信心。連鎖房地產(chǎn)中介Countrywide也在考慮上市。
It is easy to see why they want to go public. Shares in the four largest quoted housebuilders are up an average 75 per cent in the past year. Savills, the largest listed residential estate agent, is up 50 per cent. And while the overall UK housing market is uninspiring (house prices fell 1 per cent in 2012, according to Nationwide, although volumes are ticking up), trends in the south, where Crest owns most of its land, are better.
很容易理解他們?yōu)槭裁匆鲜?。市值的四家住建商在過去一年中，股價(jià)平均上漲了75%。其中的住宅房地產(chǎn)商Savills，股價(jià)上漲了50%。雖然英國(guó)整體房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)并不鼓舞人心（據(jù)Nationwide數(shù)據(jù)，2012年房?jī)r(jià)下跌1%，盡管交易量有所回升），但Crest所持大部分土地所在的英國(guó)南部形勢(shì)更好些。
There are clouds on the horizon, however. Sales, especially of new-builds, are supported by government schemes designed to help buyers. If the economy improves enough to allow the government to drop those schemes, it will not be long before interest rates rise.
然而地平線上仍有烏云。銷售（尤其是新建住房的銷售）受到政府計(jì)劃的助力，這些計(jì)劃旨在幫助置業(yè)人士。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況好轉(zhuǎn)到足以讓政府放棄這些計(jì)劃，那么不久利率又會(huì)上漲了。
So housing-related IPOs will have to be priced to reflect those risks. Unlike other housebuilders, where the investment case is based around margin improvement, Crest is a play on volume growth. Assume it can increase its volumes by 15 per cent this year (a slowdown from the rate achieved in 2012), and prices and margins remain flat. That would allow it to produce net profits of about ￡60m for 2013. After their strong run, housebuilders are trading on about 14 times forecast earnings, ahead of the 10-year average of nine times. If Crest floats close to that average, its equity would be worth ￡540m, although it might need a discount even to that to get away. Plenty to keep the house market gossips talking.
所以，住建類企業(yè)上市的定價(jià)必須反映這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。投資于其他住建商的理由是基于利潤(rùn)率增長(zhǎng)，與此不同的是，投資Crest要看其產(chǎn)量的增加。假設(shè)該公司今年的建房量增長(zhǎng)15%（相比2012年的增長(zhǎng)率有所放緩），而售價(jià)和利潤(rùn)率持平。這足以讓它在2013年實(shí)現(xiàn)約6000萬英鎊的凈利潤(rùn)。經(jīng)過一輪股價(jià)上漲后，各住建商的股價(jià)現(xiàn)在大致相當(dāng)于14倍預(yù)期市盈率，遠(yuǎn)高于10年平均的9倍市盈率。若Crest的發(fā)行價(jià)能接近這一平均水平，其股權(quán)總值將達(dá)5.4億英鎊，盡管它可能仍要在這個(gè)基礎(chǔ)上提供一些折讓才能成功上市。這提供了足夠的談資，讓人們繼續(xù)閑聊房市。
Lex專欄是由FT評(píng)論家聯(lián)合撰寫的短評(píng)，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與商業(yè)進(jìn)行精辟分析