AT A TIME when the “hollowing out” of Japan’s economy, in train now for three decades, is widely perceived to be accelerating, the country’s industrialists must feel they cannot win. For years they have been accused of being left behind by a fast-changing world. Their risk-averse management, ponderous decision-making and emphasis on market share over profitability have seen them overtaken by nimbler rivals in South Korea and China. In the words of Yuki Kuboshima of Deloitte, a consultancy, Japanese business lost 10-20 years as it embraced globalisation in the markets it did business in, but not in its management.
日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的“空心化”如今已持續(xù)了三十年，而且人們大都認(rèn)為這一進(jìn)程只會(huì)愈來(lái)愈快。此時(shí)此刻，日本的企業(yè)家們肯定是心灰意冷，感覺前景渺茫。多年來(lái)，人們責(zé)怪他們讓日本落后于高速增長(zhǎng)的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。日本企業(yè)家們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避管理方法、呆板的決策方式與市場(chǎng)份額比盈利更重要的觀念，使他們被來(lái)自韓國(guó)與中國(guó)的頭腦靈活的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者們所超越。在德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所工作的久保島由紀(jì)（Yuki Kuboshima）評(píng)論說(shuō)：日本企業(yè)熱情參與了其業(yè)務(wù)范圍所及的市場(chǎng)全球化進(jìn)程，但沒有以同樣的態(tài)度投入到全球化市場(chǎng)的管理中。因而日本企業(yè)失去了10~20年的發(fā)展良機(jī)。
Since March 11th last year, however, Japanese firms have been under fire for almost the opposite reason: being too quick to react to the cataclysmic earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear meltdown. For this reason, wrote Yoichi Funabashi, a former chief editor of the Asahi Shimbun daily, shortly after the tsunami, senior industrialists were careful not to mention the “C” word (China) when discussing their plans. Fleeing troubles at home by moving production there looked unseemly and unpatriotic.
但自去年3月11日后，日本企業(yè)卻由于幾乎相反的原因而飽受攻擊。人們認(rèn)為在日本經(jīng)歷了災(zāi)難性的地震、海嘯及其后的核反應(yīng)堆熔毀事故后，日本企業(yè)反應(yīng)過(guò)快。《朝日新聞》前總編輯船橋洋一（Yoichi Funabashi）對(duì)此進(jìn)行了評(píng)述。他寫道，正是出于這個(gè)原因，海嘯發(fā)生后不久，各企業(yè)的高管們?cè)谟懻撟约浩髽I(yè)的下一步行動(dòng)計(jì)劃時(shí)，都小心翼翼地避免提到“中國(guó)”二字。將生產(chǎn)線轉(zhuǎn)移到中國(guó)在日本國(guó)內(nèi)會(huì)被認(rèn)為是不合時(shí)宜、沒有愛國(guó)之心的舉動(dòng)，他們擔(dān)心惹火燒身。
According to Ulrike Schaede, professor of Japanese business at the University of California in San Diego, about one-fifth of Japanese manufacturing already takes place outside Japan. For electronics, the proportion is more than 30%, and for cars just over half. Pessimists fear this process will leave post-industrial devastation in its wake back home. In Japan “industry and employment are on the verge of collapse,” lamented Akio Toyoda, boss of Toyota, a huge carmaker, in May.
烏瑞卡•莎德（Ulrike Schaede）是加州大學(xué)圣地亞哥分校的一名專門研究日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的教授。據(jù)他所述，日本制造的產(chǎn)品中約五分之一是在國(guó)外生產(chǎn)的。對(duì)電子產(chǎn)品而言，這一比例超過(guò)了30%；而汽車則超過(guò)了半數(shù)。悲觀論者們擔(dān)心，按照這樣的趨勢(shì)發(fā)展下去，日本最終將變成后工業(yè)化時(shí)代的一片廢墟。豐田章男（Akio Toyoda）是汽車制造巨頭豐田公司的。他在今年五月哀嘆道：“日本的工業(yè)與就業(yè)正處在崩潰的邊緣?！?BR> Industrial decline in Japan has been much less rapid than in some other rich countries. According to OECD data, in 2000-08 manufacturing employment in Japan fell by about one-tenth, compared with about one-fifth in America and a quarter in Britain. Even so, pessimists point out, the former export powerhouse is running persistent monthly trade deficits.
其實(shí)日本工業(yè)下滑的速率比其他一些富國(guó)要慢得多。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）給出的數(shù)據(jù)，2000至2008年間，日本的制造業(yè)就業(yè)率下降了約十分之一；與之相比較，美國(guó)下降了五分之一，而英國(guó)則下降了四分之一。既便如此，悲觀論者們還是指出，日本這個(gè)以往的出口型大國(guó)現(xiàn)在是月月都持續(xù)著貿(mào)易赤字。
The 2011 disasters intensified the pressures driving Japanese manufacturers overseas. For years the yen’s strength has defied the weakness of the economy. Just after the tsunami, rich-country central banks had to co-ordinate intervention—not to prop the currency up, but to stop its further appreciation. Some economists argue the yen cannot defy gravity for ever. Most businesses, however, have to plan for an indefinite high-wire act.
2011年的天災(zāi)進(jìn)一步加大了壓力，促使更多的日本制造企業(yè)遷往海外。數(shù)年來(lái)，盡管日本經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，但日元卻保持著堅(jiān)挺之勢(shì)。就在去年的海嘯災(zāi)難剛剛發(fā)生后，富國(guó)的中央銀行就不得不進(jìn)行聯(lián)合干預(yù)——并非要防止日元貶值，而是要阻止日元的進(jìn)一步升值。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為日元不可能永遠(yuǎn)逆向升值下去。但大多數(shù)日本企業(yè)家還是不得不作出計(jì)劃來(lái)，以便進(jìn)行一場(chǎng)無(wú)限期的“高空走鋼絲表演”。
Takehide Takahashi of the Japan Auto Parts Industries Association (JAPIA), a lobby group, says he has given up hope of a weaker yen. Sony, an electronics giant, has long been globalising production. It says that, by increasing the proportion of its dollar-based costs, it has reduced its sensitivity to dollar-yen movements “essentially to zero”. However, it is harder to shift costs to the euro area, so it loses ¥60 billion ($730m) in operating profit for every one-yen appreciation in the exchange rate with the euro.
日本汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（JAPIA）是一個(gè)院外活動(dòng)團(tuán)體，高橋武英（Takehide Takahashi）是其成員之一。他說(shuō)自己對(duì)日元貶值已經(jīng)不抱希望了。索尼公司是一家電子產(chǎn)品巨頭，這家企業(yè)一直在推行生產(chǎn)全球化政策。該公司說(shuō)，通過(guò)增加以美元為基礎(chǔ)的成本支出比例，該公司已經(jīng)將美元對(duì)日元匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)公司的影響減小到“接近于零?！比欢跉W元區(qū)的成本支出方式卻很難改變，因而只要日元與歐元交換匯率升值1日元，該公司就會(huì)白白損失了600億日元（7.3億美元）的毛利潤(rùn)。
The new big worry is electricity. Just before the Fukushima nuclear disaster, nuclear power provided almost 30% of Japan’s electricity, and the government planned to increase that to 50% by 2030. Since last month Japan for the first time in decades has been without any nuclear generation. A reliable supply of relatively cheap electricity can no longer be taken for granted.
最讓人擔(dān)心的是電力供應(yīng)，這是一個(gè)新出現(xiàn)的問題。在福島核災(zāi)難發(fā)生之前，幾乎30%的日本電力供應(yīng)來(lái)自核電站。日本政府計(jì)劃到2030年時(shí)將這一比例增加至50%。從上個(gè)月開始，日本幾十年來(lái)頭一次沒有了來(lái)自核電站的電力供應(yīng)。可靠而又相對(duì)廉價(jià)的電力供應(yīng)不再是理所當(dāng)然的了。
The yen and electricity are only two of a long list of worries. There is the risk of another earthquake—especially a long-feared “big one” for Tokyo. A shrinking population means a dwindling domestic market. Corporate taxes are high, and the labour market rigid. And as others race to sign bilateral and regional free-trade arrangements, Japan is largely a spectator.
令人憂慮的問題有長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)一大串，日元與電力供應(yīng)問題只是其中的兩個(gè)。有出現(xiàn)另一場(chǎng)地震的危險(xiǎn)，特別是出現(xiàn)一場(chǎng)人們長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)所擔(dān)心的東京地區(qū)的“大地震”。人口下降則意味著國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的萎縮。公司稅高企，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)僵化。當(dāng)別的國(guó)家和地區(qū)忙著簽署雙邊和地區(qū)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定時(shí)，日本大體上還只是一個(gè)看客。
A number of factors, however, are slowing the rush for the exits. The first is that so much production in the most vulnerable industries has already shifted. Then there is the vexed question of where to move to. China, with the magnetic pull of its huge, fast-growing economy, tops the list. But there are worries about rising Chinese labour costs, the rule of law, the security of intellectual property, a recent economic slowdown and even, with a leadership tussle apparently under way, political stability.
然而，諸多因素正在使這股制造業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移之潮減緩下來(lái)。首先就是最脆弱行業(yè)中大量的生產(chǎn)能力已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到海外了。接著就出現(xiàn)了應(yīng)該將這些生產(chǎn)能力轉(zhuǎn)移到哪里這個(gè)爭(zhēng)論不休的問題。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量巨大，發(fā)展迅猛，具有很強(qiáng)的吸引力，當(dāng)然位居待選名單的前列了。但人們也擔(dān)憂中國(guó)正在上漲的勞動(dòng)力成本、法律法規(guī)、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)及最近出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)減速等問題。讓人們更擔(dān)心的是，伴隨著中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層似乎正在出現(xiàn)的權(quán)力爭(zhēng)斗，會(huì)出現(xiàn)政治不穩(wěn)定的局面。
Other favoured countries for Japanese outward investment face troubles of their own. Thailand, one of the most popular destinations, is far from a paragon of stability itself. Moreover, having suffered the agony of the tsunami at home, many Japanese firms then faced supply-chain disruption from floods later in the year in Thailand. Though described as a “once in 50 years” disaster, many fear floods could recur quite a bit sooner.
日本海外投資的其他待選國(guó)家也面臨著各自出現(xiàn)的問題。泰國(guó)是一個(gè)日本投資者青睞的投資對(duì)象國(guó)，但該國(guó)政治也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)談不上非常穩(wěn)定。此外，許多日本企業(yè)除了在本土遭受到海嘯襲擊的災(zāi)難，去年末在泰國(guó)還面臨著由于遭受洪水襲擊而帶來(lái)“供應(yīng)鏈”斷裂的局面。雖然這場(chǎng)洪災(zāi)被形容為“50年一遇”，許多人還是擔(dān)心洪水泛濫的局面很快就會(huì)再現(xiàn)。
So for some, keeping production in Japan remains attractive. In May Toyota’s Mr Toyoda promised to keep large facilities in Japan. Masami Doi, a Toyota spokesman, says that of the 9.6m vehicles it will make this year, 3.4m will be made in Japan, with nearly half of them to be exported. Mr Doi insists this is a commercial decision, based on the value of Toyota’s highly skilled Japanese workforce. But Mr Toyoda said carmakers had to work hard to “make Japan healthy and make Japan smile”. That sounds more like a national mission, or, to be cynical, a concern for the brand’s image, than a focus on the bottom line. Other carmakers, however, are less committed to staying at home.
因此對(duì)某些人而言，將生產(chǎn)線留在日本還是很有吸引力的。今年五月，豐田公司的豐田章男就許諾將一些大型汽車制造廠留在國(guó)內(nèi)。豐田公司的發(fā)言人土居真美（Masami Doi）說(shuō)：在該公司今年要生產(chǎn)的960萬(wàn)臺(tái)汽車中，340萬(wàn)臺(tái)將產(chǎn)自日本。而半數(shù)將用于出口。土居真美強(qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō)這完全是基于商業(yè)考慮而做出的決定。理由是豐田公司的日本員工技術(shù)素質(zhì)高，能創(chuàng)造更高的價(jià)值。但豐田章男說(shuō)，公司員工必須努力工作，只有這樣才能“促進(jìn)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康，使日本人露出笑容?！边@番話聽起來(lái)更像是在背負(fù)著一種民族使命；或者可以把這看作一種極端自私的言論，只關(guān)心豐田的品牌形象，而不顧底層員工的死活。然而其他汽車制造企業(yè)則沒有如此“高尚”，他們紛紛將工廠遷往國(guó)外。
With neither bang nor whimper
既不會(huì)砰的一聲垮掉，也不會(huì)在輕輕地啜泣聲中消亡
Japan is already uncompetitive in a range of products, from tumble-dryers to DVD players. But optimists argue that it is carving out niches in higher-tech materials, chemicals and components that are then assembled into consumer goods elsewhere. In other words, it is moving up the value chain just as it has always been advised to do. After so many years of trade surpluses, it is disconcerting to lurch into deficit as exports slow and imports—especially of energy—surge. But one reason the yen remains strong is that the current account remains healthily in surplus. That is thanks in large part to flows of income from investments overseas. Hollowing out—shipping jobs overseas, and sending profits home—does have its compensations.
日本已經(jīng)在從烘干機(jī)到DVD播放機(jī)等一系列產(chǎn)品中喪失了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力。但持樂觀態(tài)度的人士則認(rèn)為，日本企業(yè)在高科技材料、化工產(chǎn)品和出口到海外組裝成終端消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品的零部件方面正在開拓自己的特定市場(chǎng)。換句話說(shuō)，日本企業(yè)正在按照人們一直在建議的那樣去做，提升價(jià)值鏈。在經(jīng)歷了多年的外貿(mào)順差之后，突然進(jìn)入到外貿(mào)逆差之中，確實(shí)令日本人感到不安。出口在減緩，而進(jìn)口（尤其是能源進(jìn)口）激增。但日元依然保持堅(jiān)挺的原因之一是經(jīng)常賬戶盈余的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。這種狀況主要應(yīng)歸于從海外投資獲得的收益回流。將制造產(chǎn)品的工作轉(zhuǎn)移到海外，將賺到的錢送往國(guó)內(nèi)，這就形成了產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化。日本當(dāng)然也為此而得到了補(bǔ)償。
日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的“空心化”如今已持續(xù)了三十年，而且人們大都認(rèn)為這一進(jìn)程只會(huì)愈來(lái)愈快。此時(shí)此刻，日本的企業(yè)家們肯定是心灰意冷，感覺前景渺茫。多年來(lái)，人們責(zé)怪他們讓日本落后于高速增長(zhǎng)的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。日本企業(yè)家們的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避管理方法、呆板的決策方式與市場(chǎng)份額比盈利更重要的觀念，使他們被來(lái)自韓國(guó)與中國(guó)的頭腦靈活的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者們所超越。在德勤會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所工作的久保島由紀(jì)（Yuki Kuboshima）評(píng)論說(shuō)：日本企業(yè)熱情參與了其業(yè)務(wù)范圍所及的市場(chǎng)全球化進(jìn)程，但沒有以同樣的態(tài)度投入到全球化市場(chǎng)的管理中。因而日本企業(yè)失去了10~20年的發(fā)展良機(jī)。
Since March 11th last year, however, Japanese firms have been under fire for almost the opposite reason: being too quick to react to the cataclysmic earthquake, tsunami and subsequent nuclear meltdown. For this reason, wrote Yoichi Funabashi, a former chief editor of the Asahi Shimbun daily, shortly after the tsunami, senior industrialists were careful not to mention the “C” word (China) when discussing their plans. Fleeing troubles at home by moving production there looked unseemly and unpatriotic.
但自去年3月11日后，日本企業(yè)卻由于幾乎相反的原因而飽受攻擊。人們認(rèn)為在日本經(jīng)歷了災(zāi)難性的地震、海嘯及其后的核反應(yīng)堆熔毀事故后，日本企業(yè)反應(yīng)過(guò)快。《朝日新聞》前總編輯船橋洋一（Yoichi Funabashi）對(duì)此進(jìn)行了評(píng)述。他寫道，正是出于這個(gè)原因，海嘯發(fā)生后不久，各企業(yè)的高管們?cè)谟懻撟约浩髽I(yè)的下一步行動(dòng)計(jì)劃時(shí)，都小心翼翼地避免提到“中國(guó)”二字。將生產(chǎn)線轉(zhuǎn)移到中國(guó)在日本國(guó)內(nèi)會(huì)被認(rèn)為是不合時(shí)宜、沒有愛國(guó)之心的舉動(dòng)，他們擔(dān)心惹火燒身。
According to Ulrike Schaede, professor of Japanese business at the University of California in San Diego, about one-fifth of Japanese manufacturing already takes place outside Japan. For electronics, the proportion is more than 30%, and for cars just over half. Pessimists fear this process will leave post-industrial devastation in its wake back home. In Japan “industry and employment are on the verge of collapse,” lamented Akio Toyoda, boss of Toyota, a huge carmaker, in May.
烏瑞卡•莎德（Ulrike Schaede）是加州大學(xué)圣地亞哥分校的一名專門研究日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的教授。據(jù)他所述，日本制造的產(chǎn)品中約五分之一是在國(guó)外生產(chǎn)的。對(duì)電子產(chǎn)品而言，這一比例超過(guò)了30%；而汽車則超過(guò)了半數(shù)。悲觀論者們擔(dān)心，按照這樣的趨勢(shì)發(fā)展下去，日本最終將變成后工業(yè)化時(shí)代的一片廢墟。豐田章男（Akio Toyoda）是汽車制造巨頭豐田公司的。他在今年五月哀嘆道：“日本的工業(yè)與就業(yè)正處在崩潰的邊緣?！?BR> Industrial decline in Japan has been much less rapid than in some other rich countries. According to OECD data, in 2000-08 manufacturing employment in Japan fell by about one-tenth, compared with about one-fifth in America and a quarter in Britain. Even so, pessimists point out, the former export powerhouse is running persistent monthly trade deficits.
其實(shí)日本工業(yè)下滑的速率比其他一些富國(guó)要慢得多。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）給出的數(shù)據(jù)，2000至2008年間，日本的制造業(yè)就業(yè)率下降了約十分之一；與之相比較，美國(guó)下降了五分之一，而英國(guó)則下降了四分之一。既便如此，悲觀論者們還是指出，日本這個(gè)以往的出口型大國(guó)現(xiàn)在是月月都持續(xù)著貿(mào)易赤字。
The 2011 disasters intensified the pressures driving Japanese manufacturers overseas. For years the yen’s strength has defied the weakness of the economy. Just after the tsunami, rich-country central banks had to co-ordinate intervention—not to prop the currency up, but to stop its further appreciation. Some economists argue the yen cannot defy gravity for ever. Most businesses, however, have to plan for an indefinite high-wire act.
2011年的天災(zāi)進(jìn)一步加大了壓力，促使更多的日本制造企業(yè)遷往海外。數(shù)年來(lái)，盡管日本經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，但日元卻保持著堅(jiān)挺之勢(shì)。就在去年的海嘯災(zāi)難剛剛發(fā)生后，富國(guó)的中央銀行就不得不進(jìn)行聯(lián)合干預(yù)——并非要防止日元貶值，而是要阻止日元的進(jìn)一步升值。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為日元不可能永遠(yuǎn)逆向升值下去。但大多數(shù)日本企業(yè)家還是不得不作出計(jì)劃來(lái)，以便進(jìn)行一場(chǎng)無(wú)限期的“高空走鋼絲表演”。
Takehide Takahashi of the Japan Auto Parts Industries Association (JAPIA), a lobby group, says he has given up hope of a weaker yen. Sony, an electronics giant, has long been globalising production. It says that, by increasing the proportion of its dollar-based costs, it has reduced its sensitivity to dollar-yen movements “essentially to zero”. However, it is harder to shift costs to the euro area, so it loses ¥60 billion ($730m) in operating profit for every one-yen appreciation in the exchange rate with the euro.
日本汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)（JAPIA）是一個(gè)院外活動(dòng)團(tuán)體，高橋武英（Takehide Takahashi）是其成員之一。他說(shuō)自己對(duì)日元貶值已經(jīng)不抱希望了。索尼公司是一家電子產(chǎn)品巨頭，這家企業(yè)一直在推行生產(chǎn)全球化政策。該公司說(shuō)，通過(guò)增加以美元為基礎(chǔ)的成本支出比例，該公司已經(jīng)將美元對(duì)日元匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)公司的影響減小到“接近于零?！比欢跉W元區(qū)的成本支出方式卻很難改變，因而只要日元與歐元交換匯率升值1日元，該公司就會(huì)白白損失了600億日元（7.3億美元）的毛利潤(rùn)。
The new big worry is electricity. Just before the Fukushima nuclear disaster, nuclear power provided almost 30% of Japan’s electricity, and the government planned to increase that to 50% by 2030. Since last month Japan for the first time in decades has been without any nuclear generation. A reliable supply of relatively cheap electricity can no longer be taken for granted.
最讓人擔(dān)心的是電力供應(yīng)，這是一個(gè)新出現(xiàn)的問題。在福島核災(zāi)難發(fā)生之前，幾乎30%的日本電力供應(yīng)來(lái)自核電站。日本政府計(jì)劃到2030年時(shí)將這一比例增加至50%。從上個(gè)月開始，日本幾十年來(lái)頭一次沒有了來(lái)自核電站的電力供應(yīng)。可靠而又相對(duì)廉價(jià)的電力供應(yīng)不再是理所當(dāng)然的了。
The yen and electricity are only two of a long list of worries. There is the risk of another earthquake—especially a long-feared “big one” for Tokyo. A shrinking population means a dwindling domestic market. Corporate taxes are high, and the labour market rigid. And as others race to sign bilateral and regional free-trade arrangements, Japan is largely a spectator.
令人憂慮的問題有長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)一大串，日元與電力供應(yīng)問題只是其中的兩個(gè)。有出現(xiàn)另一場(chǎng)地震的危險(xiǎn)，特別是出現(xiàn)一場(chǎng)人們長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)所擔(dān)心的東京地區(qū)的“大地震”。人口下降則意味著國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)的萎縮。公司稅高企，勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)僵化。當(dāng)別的國(guó)家和地區(qū)忙著簽署雙邊和地區(qū)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定時(shí)，日本大體上還只是一個(gè)看客。
A number of factors, however, are slowing the rush for the exits. The first is that so much production in the most vulnerable industries has already shifted. Then there is the vexed question of where to move to. China, with the magnetic pull of its huge, fast-growing economy, tops the list. But there are worries about rising Chinese labour costs, the rule of law, the security of intellectual property, a recent economic slowdown and even, with a leadership tussle apparently under way, political stability.
然而，諸多因素正在使這股制造業(yè)海外轉(zhuǎn)移之潮減緩下來(lái)。首先就是最脆弱行業(yè)中大量的生產(chǎn)能力已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)移到海外了。接著就出現(xiàn)了應(yīng)該將這些生產(chǎn)能力轉(zhuǎn)移到哪里這個(gè)爭(zhēng)論不休的問題。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量巨大，發(fā)展迅猛，具有很強(qiáng)的吸引力，當(dāng)然位居待選名單的前列了。但人們也擔(dān)憂中國(guó)正在上漲的勞動(dòng)力成本、法律法規(guī)、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)保護(hù)及最近出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)減速等問題。讓人們更擔(dān)心的是，伴隨著中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層似乎正在出現(xiàn)的權(quán)力爭(zhēng)斗，會(huì)出現(xiàn)政治不穩(wěn)定的局面。
Other favoured countries for Japanese outward investment face troubles of their own. Thailand, one of the most popular destinations, is far from a paragon of stability itself. Moreover, having suffered the agony of the tsunami at home, many Japanese firms then faced supply-chain disruption from floods later in the year in Thailand. Though described as a “once in 50 years” disaster, many fear floods could recur quite a bit sooner.
日本海外投資的其他待選國(guó)家也面臨著各自出現(xiàn)的問題。泰國(guó)是一個(gè)日本投資者青睞的投資對(duì)象國(guó)，但該國(guó)政治也遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)談不上非常穩(wěn)定。此外，許多日本企業(yè)除了在本土遭受到海嘯襲擊的災(zāi)難，去年末在泰國(guó)還面臨著由于遭受洪水襲擊而帶來(lái)“供應(yīng)鏈”斷裂的局面。雖然這場(chǎng)洪災(zāi)被形容為“50年一遇”，許多人還是擔(dān)心洪水泛濫的局面很快就會(huì)再現(xiàn)。
So for some, keeping production in Japan remains attractive. In May Toyota’s Mr Toyoda promised to keep large facilities in Japan. Masami Doi, a Toyota spokesman, says that of the 9.6m vehicles it will make this year, 3.4m will be made in Japan, with nearly half of them to be exported. Mr Doi insists this is a commercial decision, based on the value of Toyota’s highly skilled Japanese workforce. But Mr Toyoda said carmakers had to work hard to “make Japan healthy and make Japan smile”. That sounds more like a national mission, or, to be cynical, a concern for the brand’s image, than a focus on the bottom line. Other carmakers, however, are less committed to staying at home.
因此對(duì)某些人而言，將生產(chǎn)線留在日本還是很有吸引力的。今年五月，豐田公司的豐田章男就許諾將一些大型汽車制造廠留在國(guó)內(nèi)。豐田公司的發(fā)言人土居真美（Masami Doi）說(shuō)：在該公司今年要生產(chǎn)的960萬(wàn)臺(tái)汽車中，340萬(wàn)臺(tái)將產(chǎn)自日本。而半數(shù)將用于出口。土居真美強(qiáng)調(diào)說(shuō)這完全是基于商業(yè)考慮而做出的決定。理由是豐田公司的日本員工技術(shù)素質(zhì)高，能創(chuàng)造更高的價(jià)值。但豐田章男說(shuō)，公司員工必須努力工作，只有這樣才能“促進(jìn)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康，使日本人露出笑容?！边@番話聽起來(lái)更像是在背負(fù)著一種民族使命；或者可以把這看作一種極端自私的言論，只關(guān)心豐田的品牌形象，而不顧底層員工的死活。然而其他汽車制造企業(yè)則沒有如此“高尚”，他們紛紛將工廠遷往國(guó)外。
With neither bang nor whimper
既不會(huì)砰的一聲垮掉，也不會(huì)在輕輕地啜泣聲中消亡
Japan is already uncompetitive in a range of products, from tumble-dryers to DVD players. But optimists argue that it is carving out niches in higher-tech materials, chemicals and components that are then assembled into consumer goods elsewhere. In other words, it is moving up the value chain just as it has always been advised to do. After so many years of trade surpluses, it is disconcerting to lurch into deficit as exports slow and imports—especially of energy—surge. But one reason the yen remains strong is that the current account remains healthily in surplus. That is thanks in large part to flows of income from investments overseas. Hollowing out—shipping jobs overseas, and sending profits home—does have its compensations.
日本已經(jīng)在從烘干機(jī)到DVD播放機(jī)等一系列產(chǎn)品中喪失了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力。但持樂觀態(tài)度的人士則認(rèn)為，日本企業(yè)在高科技材料、化工產(chǎn)品和出口到海外組裝成終端消費(fèi)產(chǎn)品的零部件方面正在開拓自己的特定市場(chǎng)。換句話說(shuō)，日本企業(yè)正在按照人們一直在建議的那樣去做，提升價(jià)值鏈。在經(jīng)歷了多年的外貿(mào)順差之后，突然進(jìn)入到外貿(mào)逆差之中，確實(shí)令日本人感到不安。出口在減緩，而進(jìn)口（尤其是能源進(jìn)口）激增。但日元依然保持堅(jiān)挺的原因之一是經(jīng)常賬戶盈余的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。這種狀況主要應(yīng)歸于從海外投資獲得的收益回流。將制造產(chǎn)品的工作轉(zhuǎn)移到海外，將賺到的錢送往國(guó)內(nèi)，這就形成了產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化。日本當(dāng)然也為此而得到了補(bǔ)償。