china daily 雙語(yǔ)新聞：銀行貸款減緩?fù)苿?dòng)亞洲債市擴(kuò)張
This year, PTT Global Chemical, Thailand's largest petrochemical refining company, did a pretty routine thing by Western standards: It issued $1 billion worth of bonds. Meanwhile, Indonesian township developer Jababeka raised $175 million in similar fashion. And Chinese property developer SOHO raised $1 billion in a dual-tranche issue.
今年，泰國(guó)石化煉油企業(yè)PTT Global Chemical做了一件按西方標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量可謂非常普通的事：發(fā)行了價(jià)值10億美元的債券。與此同時(shí)，印尼城鎮(zhèn)地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商Jababeka也以類(lèi)似方式發(fā)行了價(jià)值1.75億美元的債券。中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商SOHO中國(guó)通過(guò)發(fā)行兩批美元票據(jù)融資了10億美元。
What made these events noteworthy was that all three companies tapped the bond market for the first time. This year, companies all over Asia have been doing the same, turning 2012 into the biggest year ever for Asian bonds, which surged 44% over 2011. But sustaining this momentum─and Asia's growth─ will require deeper regional cooperation to standardize issuing procedures.
上述事件之所以值得關(guān)注，是因?yàn)檫@三家企業(yè)都是首次利用債市融資。今年以來(lái)，亞洲各地的企業(yè)都在發(fā)債融資。這使得2012年成為亞洲債市有史以來(lái)最為繁榮的一年，其規(guī)模相比2011年激增了44%。但維持這一勢(shì)頭以及維持亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增速需要深化區(qū)域合作，以實(shí)現(xiàn)發(fā)行程序的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化。
For years, calls from Western bankers for Asia's capital markets to pivot from being primarily loan-supplied to bond-supplied had fallen on deaf ears. Historically there was no good reason for companies to stop relying on their long-term relationships with banks for credit.
多年來(lái)，西方銀行家一直呼吁亞洲資本市場(chǎng)應(yīng)轉(zhuǎn)變重心，從主要依靠貸款融資向主要依靠發(fā)債融資轉(zhuǎn)移，不過(guò)這些倡議都石沉大海。過(guò)去，亞洲企業(yè)都是靠和銀行建立起的長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系獲得信貸，它們沒(méi)有理由改變這樣的做法。
But the world is changing. The growth surge of 2012 is not simply a one-off event. In fact, two structural shifts are occurring that together will serve to make bond issuing the new normal. First, companies can no longer rely on lending from European banks, whose retreat from Asia isn't likely to reverse any time soon.
但世界在不斷變化。2012年亞洲債市規(guī)模的急劇增長(zhǎng)不僅僅是一次性事件。實(shí)際上，這里出現(xiàn)了兩種結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整。在它們的共同作用下，債券發(fā)行將成為新常態(tài)。首先，企業(yè)不能再依賴(lài)歐洲銀行的貸款。這些銀行從亞洲撤出的局面近期可能不會(huì)逆轉(zhuǎn)。
Second, Basel III is coming closer to reality. Designed to make banks safer, these new global banking regulations require financial institutions to hold more capital. This leaves financial institutions with two choices: raise more capital, or lend less. With demand for bank shares at a low since the global financial crisis, the unsurprising outcome is that many banks, particularly Western ones, are slowing their lending.
其次，《巴塞爾協(xié)議III》(Basel III)正一步步成為現(xiàn)實(shí)。這些旨在讓銀行更安全的全球銀行業(yè)新法規(guī)要求金融機(jī)構(gòu)持有更多資本。這樣一來(lái)，金融機(jī)構(gòu)便只有兩個(gè)選擇：要么籌集更多資本，要么減少放貸。全球金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后，投資者對(duì)銀行股的需求處于低位，很多銀行正在減緩放貸速度也并不出人意料，西方銀行尤其如此。
That means bank lending will continue to grow, but at a reduced pace. Even if Asian banks raise additional equity to expand their lending, Standard Chartered believes bank lending to companies will slow from an annual growth rate of 18% a year over the past decade to 8% a year for the next five years. And while we expect corporate credit demand to likewise slow, we still forecast a huge gap between what banks can provide and what companies need to grow. Asian companies will have to find other sources of funding to fill the shortfall.
這意味著銀行貸款仍將增加，但增速會(huì)有所放慢。渣打銀行認(rèn)為，即使亞洲銀行增加股本以擴(kuò)大放貸規(guī)模，銀行提供給企業(yè)的貸款年增長(zhǎng)率仍將從過(guò)去10年的18%降至未來(lái)五年的8%。雖然我們認(rèn)為企業(yè)信貸需求也將同樣放緩，但我們?nèi)灶A(yù)計(jì)銀行所能提供的信貸與企業(yè)增長(zhǎng)所需的信貸之間將出現(xiàn)巨大缺口。亞洲公司將不得不尋找其它融資來(lái)源填補(bǔ)這個(gè)缺口。
To plug the gap, Asia's corporate bond markets will need to expand rapidly. By 2017, we forecast a tripling of Asia's corporate bond market to more than $10 trillion. This would represent a staggering transformation, with bonds accounting for 40% of the corporate funding mix, up from 25% today.
為堵住缺口，亞洲的企業(yè)債市場(chǎng)需要快速擴(kuò)張。我們預(yù)計(jì)到2017年，亞洲公司債市場(chǎng)將增加兩倍，達(dá)到逾10萬(wàn)億美元的規(guī)模。這將是一個(gè)驚人的轉(zhuǎn)型，其中債券融資將占到企業(yè)融資組合的40%，高于目前25%的比例。
The $10 trillion dollar question: Will Asia be ready?
關(guān)于10萬(wàn)億美元的債市規(guī)模，這里有個(gè)問(wèn)題：亞洲到時(shí)能準(zhǔn)備好嗎？
Certainly, Asian companies are becoming more comfortable accessing bond markets. The level of disclosure that comes with issuing bonds is no longer an inhibitor. However, the extent to which companies will come to depend on the bond market over the next few years is still not known.
亞洲企業(yè)在發(fā)債融資方面如今確實(shí)是越來(lái)越駕輕就熟。與發(fā)債相關(guān)的信息披露水平也已不再是約束因素。不過(guò)，未來(lái)幾年亞洲企業(yè)將在多大程度上依賴(lài)債市仍是個(gè)未知數(shù)。
Banks must play an important educating role, helping to familiarize Asian companies with the process of bond financing and building up companies' relationships with local and global investors. These investors are sure to welcome the chance to get more bond exposure to Asia as a means to diversify away from a slowing West.
銀行須發(fā)揮重要的教育作用，幫助亞洲公司熟悉債券融資過(guò)程，并且?guī)椭鼈兘⑴c本地區(qū)和全球投資者的關(guān)系。這些投資者對(duì)有機(jī)會(huì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)更多亞洲公司發(fā)行的債券無(wú)疑是愿意的，因?yàn)檫@是讓投資產(chǎn)品多元化的一種方式，可以減少對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)遲緩的西方的依賴(lài)。
Arguably, Asia's biggest challenge will be to harmonize the region's fragmented market infrastructure. Around a fifth of bond issues in Asia are dollar-denominated, settled via Euroclear─the largest securities depository in the world─and benefit from standard documentation following U.S., U.K., or Singaporean law. But in the much larger local-currency bond markets, investors face a gaggle of 14 currencies, a dozen rating agencies, 20 settlement systems and 14 sets of legislation.
可以說(shuō)，亞洲面臨的挑戰(zhàn)將是協(xié)調(diào)該地區(qū)無(wú)組織的市場(chǎng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。在亞洲發(fā)行的債券中，約有五分之一是以美元計(jì)價(jià)，通過(guò)全球證券托管機(jī)構(gòu)歐洲結(jié)算系統(tǒng)(Euroclear)結(jié)算，并且受益于遵循英美或新加坡法律的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)文件。但在以亞洲本地區(qū)貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的大得多的債券市場(chǎng)上，投資者要面臨14種形形色色的貨幣、12個(gè)評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)、20個(gè)結(jié)算系統(tǒng)和14套法律制度。
Some of these differences will take years to fix. But the easiest win─and the one most likely to have a big impact on liquidity─would be a common clearing and settlement platform, similar to that which underpins the Eurobond market.
上述差異中，有一些解決起來(lái)需要多年時(shí)間。但最簡(jiǎn)單易行的方式（也是最有可能對(duì)流動(dòng)性產(chǎn)生重要影響的方式）就是建立統(tǒng)一的、與歐洲市場(chǎng)類(lèi)似的結(jié)算和交割平臺(tái)。
Previous attempts to simplify clearing and documentation have lacked broad support but, encouragingly, market participants are now creating renewed momentum across industry forums. Regulators and bankers have shown that they can begin to agree on common infrastructure, and some banks are already launching region-wide bond settlement systems. Establishing a full-scale, harmonized, pan-Asian platform must now be a priority.
以前也有過(guò)試圖簡(jiǎn)化結(jié)算和文件程序的努力，但都缺乏廣泛支持。不過(guò)令人鼓舞的是，市場(chǎng)參與者目前正為各行業(yè)平臺(tái)重新創(chuàng)造動(dòng)力。監(jiān)管者和銀行家已表示，他們可就共同基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施問(wèn)題開(kāi)始達(dá)成一致。有些銀行已開(kāi)始推出適用于亞洲地區(qū)的債券結(jié)算系統(tǒng)。建立一個(gè)全面、協(xié)調(diào)的泛亞洲結(jié)算平臺(tái)是現(xiàn)在的當(dāng)務(wù)之急。
Asia's successful transition to more bond-market funding is crucial, and not just for Asia. With sluggish recovery prospects expected in the West for at least a few more years, Asia will continue to be the engine of growth for the globe. But this depends on companies being able to access stable, long-term sources of funding.
亞洲企業(yè)應(yīng)成功轉(zhuǎn)型至更多依賴(lài)債市融資，此舉非常關(guān)鍵，而且不僅僅對(duì)亞洲本身來(lái)說(shuō)是這樣。預(yù)計(jì)西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體復(fù)蘇前景疲弱的情況至少還會(huì)再持續(xù)幾年，所以亞洲仍將是帶動(dòng)全球增長(zhǎng)的引擎。但這取決于公司是否能獲得長(zhǎng)期、穩(wěn)定的資金來(lái)源。
In other words, without sufficient credit, Asia won't maintain the growth that has helped transform the region into an economic powerhouse, and will no longer be the savior of Western economies. That makes the development of Asia's corporate bond markets everybody's business.
換句話(huà)說(shuō)，若沒(méi)有足夠的信貸，亞洲將無(wú)法維持幫助該地區(qū)成為“經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)”的高增長(zhǎng)，而且它也將不再是西方經(jīng)濟(jì)體的救星。因此，亞洲公司債市場(chǎng)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r與所有人的利益息息相關(guān)。