Ever since its debut world-wide, the Internet has been dominated by English as the chief medium of communication. But how long will this situation last, given the rapid advancements in technology which enable the Net to support various languages ever more easily, and to spread its services ever more widely？
In less than 20 years, some analysts predict, Chinese will take over from English as the most commonly used language on the World Wide Web.
Their reasons： the huge number of Chinese-speakers, and the powerful attraction of China's market.
Statistics shows that, world-wide, those who communicate chiefly with Chinese —— or some dialect of the language ——are twice as many as those who use English.
However, it remains questionable how many among those Chinese-speakers are Internet-users. So far the Net has reached only a small proportion of the 1.3 billion people in China： a recent survey reveals that only 14 percent of the population know of the Internet.
The latest figure released by Shanghai Telecommunications Administration shows that China's Internet subscribers had totalled 8.9 million by the end of 1999, a 345 percent growth over the 2 million just 12 months before.
Now, the statistics of the United States shows that the world's Net-surfers had totalled 171 million until May 1999, and 200 million by the end of 1999. It is predicted that the figure will reach 320 million by the end of 2000, and 720 million by the end of 2005.
By contrast, the use of the Net in China still lags far behind that in America and Europe. There is still a long way to go before Chinese can catch up with English as a Net language.
But the take-over is foreseen “in less than 20 years”。
Snowballing at its current rate, the total of China's Net-surfers will hit 250 million in the year 2010. There is enormous room for growth.
In addition to China's population, there is a widespread Chinese diaspora. In Taiwan alone, Net-surfers will be totalling 5 million this year. As the Internet knows no borders or boundaries, the Chinese all over the world will be working together to boost the use of their language.
Market-wise, stock prices of China-related Internet companies have been escalating in the past few months.
The first Chinese-medium Internet company to go listed in the US, namely the Hong Kong-based China.com, saw its stock price trebled on being launched in July 1999. Several China-based Internet companies will be going listed abroad later this year. Another wave of China-craze is expected on New York stock market.
In China, many listed companies have invested heavily in Internet-related business. So far, nearly 10 percent of listed firms in Shenzhen and Shanghai are Net-related. China's Net-related stocks are taking shape.
In Hong Kong, huge funds have been set up for investment in Internet technologies, including those for the Cyberport and Chinese Medicine Port projects. 70 percent of Hong Kong companies are keen to increase their input in this field.
One of the hot topics in the sector has been how to engage the huge population of China on the Net and how to tap the great potentials of e-commence with them.
Currently, Chinese-medium Internet still faces problems. The Chinese government is wary about politically sensitive information online, and the conversion of Chinese characters' internal encoding is still inconvenient for reading and editing online.
Nevertheless, while English-medium Internet is becoming saturated, Chinese-medium Internet promises to do well, given the opportunities and potentials which attract funds and support from the business world.
As English is slowing down its growth online, Chinese is catching up fast. While it may be premature to predict victory for Chinese in less than 20 years, it is hopeful that, before long, it will rise onto a par with English in the world of Internet.
（The author is zaobao.com online correspondent. Translated by Allen Zhuang）
華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)資訊后市看起
網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)風(fēng)行全球以來(lái),英文一直是網(wǎng)上占主導(dǎo)地位的語(yǔ)言。不過(guò),隨著網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技的迅速發(fā)展,網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)不同語(yǔ)文的支援能力越來(lái)越強(qiáng)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)的普及化越來(lái)越廣,英文領(lǐng)導(dǎo)網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間的局面,還能維持多久呢？
一些分析家預(yù)計(jì),華文將在十幾年內(nèi)超越英文,成為萬(wàn)維網(wǎng)上最常用的語(yǔ)言。
專(zhuān)家的理論根據(jù)是：一、華文的使用者多；二、中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)吸引力強(qiáng)。
根據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),全世界以中文或其方言為主要語(yǔ)言的人數(shù),比基本上以英文溝通的人數(shù)要高出一倍。
這群人當(dāng)中的網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)使用者比例到底多大,則是個(gè)有待探討的問(wèn)題。與中國(guó)的13億人口相比,網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)的滲透率還相當(dāng)?shù)?。一?xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,只有14%的中國(guó)人知道網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
上海電信管理部門(mén)日前發(fā)布的數(shù)字顯示,中國(guó)網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)訂戶(hù)在1999年底達(dá)到890萬(wàn),比12個(gè)月前的200萬(wàn)增加了3.45倍。
再看美國(guó)方面的統(tǒng)計(jì)：截至1999年5月,全球上網(wǎng)人數(shù)已達(dá)1.71億,1999年底的數(shù)字大約為2億人。根據(jù)推算,網(wǎng)絡(luò)人口到2000年底和2005年底將分別增長(zhǎng)為3.2億和7.2億。
相對(duì)來(lái)看,中國(guó)的網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)使用率不是很高,和歐美國(guó)家相差很遠(yuǎn),還談不上“華文超越英文”的程度。
不過(guò),專(zhuān)家的預(yù)計(jì)是“十幾年內(nèi)”。以目前每年迅猛增長(zhǎng)的情形發(fā)展下去,中國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶(hù)人數(shù)將如雪球般越滾越大,預(yù)計(jì)到了2010年將達(dá)到2.5億的人數(shù),發(fā)展空間十分巨大。
更何況,除了中國(guó)的龐大人口,不容忽視的還有海外華人的力量。網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間打破地域與國(guó)界的隔離,中國(guó)大陸、臺(tái)灣（臺(tái)灣網(wǎng)民今年將達(dá)到500萬(wàn)人）、港澳和海外華人攜手合力,也將是華文稱(chēng)雄網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界的關(guān)鍵。
從市場(chǎng)因素來(lái)看,與中國(guó)有關(guān)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司股票,過(guò)去幾個(gè)月來(lái)步步高升。
在美國(guó)上市的第一個(gè)中文互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司、總部在香港的“中華網(wǎng)”
（China.com）,99年7月一開(kāi)市就飆升三倍。今年,好幾家中國(guó)的網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司也將在國(guó)外上市,預(yù)計(jì)將在紐約股市掀起另一波中國(guó)熱。
中國(guó)方面,不少上市公司為網(wǎng)絡(luò)投下大筆資金。截至目前,深滬兩市已有近10%的公司與網(wǎng)絡(luò)有關(guān),構(gòu)成了中國(guó)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股一族。香港也設(shè)立巨額基金投資于網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技,“數(shù)碼港”、“中藥港”等大行其道,更有七成工商企業(yè)表示今年要增加網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技方面的投資。
如何從網(wǎng)上抓住億萬(wàn)中國(guó)人、同中國(guó)人進(jìn)行電子商務(wù)所具有的發(fā)展?jié)撃?成了網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界談?wù)摰氖滓?huà)題之一。
當(dāng)然,目前華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展仍然面對(duì)著一些問(wèn)題。中國(guó)政府對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上敏感內(nèi)容仍然非常警惕關(guān)注,中文內(nèi)碼轉(zhuǎn)換問(wèn)題造成閱讀與編輯方面的困難,也成為華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)的大一統(tǒng)事業(yè)的一些障礙。
但無(wú)論如何,英文網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間趨向飽和之際,華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)以無(wú)限商機(jī)、無(wú)限潛能,帶來(lái)遼闊的發(fā)展空間,令全球企業(yè)商界競(jìng)相掏錢(qián)出力,已是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)。
英文網(wǎng)絡(luò)腳步放緩,華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)奮起直追,是否能在十幾年內(nèi)超越英文或許還言之過(guò)早,不過(guò),要達(dá)到并駕齊驅(qū)、平起平坐的程度,也應(yīng)該是指日可待了吧！
In less than 20 years, some analysts predict, Chinese will take over from English as the most commonly used language on the World Wide Web.
Their reasons： the huge number of Chinese-speakers, and the powerful attraction of China's market.
Statistics shows that, world-wide, those who communicate chiefly with Chinese —— or some dialect of the language ——are twice as many as those who use English.
However, it remains questionable how many among those Chinese-speakers are Internet-users. So far the Net has reached only a small proportion of the 1.3 billion people in China： a recent survey reveals that only 14 percent of the population know of the Internet.
The latest figure released by Shanghai Telecommunications Administration shows that China's Internet subscribers had totalled 8.9 million by the end of 1999, a 345 percent growth over the 2 million just 12 months before.
Now, the statistics of the United States shows that the world's Net-surfers had totalled 171 million until May 1999, and 200 million by the end of 1999. It is predicted that the figure will reach 320 million by the end of 2000, and 720 million by the end of 2005.
By contrast, the use of the Net in China still lags far behind that in America and Europe. There is still a long way to go before Chinese can catch up with English as a Net language.
But the take-over is foreseen “in less than 20 years”。
Snowballing at its current rate, the total of China's Net-surfers will hit 250 million in the year 2010. There is enormous room for growth.
In addition to China's population, there is a widespread Chinese diaspora. In Taiwan alone, Net-surfers will be totalling 5 million this year. As the Internet knows no borders or boundaries, the Chinese all over the world will be working together to boost the use of their language.
Market-wise, stock prices of China-related Internet companies have been escalating in the past few months.
The first Chinese-medium Internet company to go listed in the US, namely the Hong Kong-based China.com, saw its stock price trebled on being launched in July 1999. Several China-based Internet companies will be going listed abroad later this year. Another wave of China-craze is expected on New York stock market.
In China, many listed companies have invested heavily in Internet-related business. So far, nearly 10 percent of listed firms in Shenzhen and Shanghai are Net-related. China's Net-related stocks are taking shape.
In Hong Kong, huge funds have been set up for investment in Internet technologies, including those for the Cyberport and Chinese Medicine Port projects. 70 percent of Hong Kong companies are keen to increase their input in this field.
One of the hot topics in the sector has been how to engage the huge population of China on the Net and how to tap the great potentials of e-commence with them.
Currently, Chinese-medium Internet still faces problems. The Chinese government is wary about politically sensitive information online, and the conversion of Chinese characters' internal encoding is still inconvenient for reading and editing online.
Nevertheless, while English-medium Internet is becoming saturated, Chinese-medium Internet promises to do well, given the opportunities and potentials which attract funds and support from the business world.
As English is slowing down its growth online, Chinese is catching up fast. While it may be premature to predict victory for Chinese in less than 20 years, it is hopeful that, before long, it will rise onto a par with English in the world of Internet.
（The author is zaobao.com online correspondent. Translated by Allen Zhuang）
華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)資訊后市看起
網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)風(fēng)行全球以來(lái),英文一直是網(wǎng)上占主導(dǎo)地位的語(yǔ)言。不過(guò),隨著網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技的迅速發(fā)展,網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)不同語(yǔ)文的支援能力越來(lái)越強(qiáng)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)的普及化越來(lái)越廣,英文領(lǐng)導(dǎo)網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間的局面,還能維持多久呢？
一些分析家預(yù)計(jì),華文將在十幾年內(nèi)超越英文,成為萬(wàn)維網(wǎng)上最常用的語(yǔ)言。
專(zhuān)家的理論根據(jù)是：一、華文的使用者多；二、中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)吸引力強(qiáng)。
根據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),全世界以中文或其方言為主要語(yǔ)言的人數(shù),比基本上以英文溝通的人數(shù)要高出一倍。
這群人當(dāng)中的網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)使用者比例到底多大,則是個(gè)有待探討的問(wèn)題。與中國(guó)的13億人口相比,網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)的滲透率還相當(dāng)?shù)?。一?xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,只有14%的中國(guó)人知道網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
上海電信管理部門(mén)日前發(fā)布的數(shù)字顯示,中國(guó)網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)訂戶(hù)在1999年底達(dá)到890萬(wàn),比12個(gè)月前的200萬(wàn)增加了3.45倍。
再看美國(guó)方面的統(tǒng)計(jì)：截至1999年5月,全球上網(wǎng)人數(shù)已達(dá)1.71億,1999年底的數(shù)字大約為2億人。根據(jù)推算,網(wǎng)絡(luò)人口到2000年底和2005年底將分別增長(zhǎng)為3.2億和7.2億。
相對(duì)來(lái)看,中國(guó)的網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)使用率不是很高,和歐美國(guó)家相差很遠(yuǎn),還談不上“華文超越英文”的程度。
不過(guò),專(zhuān)家的預(yù)計(jì)是“十幾年內(nèi)”。以目前每年迅猛增長(zhǎng)的情形發(fā)展下去,中國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶(hù)人數(shù)將如雪球般越滾越大,預(yù)計(jì)到了2010年將達(dá)到2.5億的人數(shù),發(fā)展空間十分巨大。
更何況,除了中國(guó)的龐大人口,不容忽視的還有海外華人的力量。網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間打破地域與國(guó)界的隔離,中國(guó)大陸、臺(tái)灣（臺(tái)灣網(wǎng)民今年將達(dá)到500萬(wàn)人）、港澳和海外華人攜手合力,也將是華文稱(chēng)雄網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界的關(guān)鍵。
從市場(chǎng)因素來(lái)看,與中國(guó)有關(guān)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司股票,過(guò)去幾個(gè)月來(lái)步步高升。
在美國(guó)上市的第一個(gè)中文互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司、總部在香港的“中華網(wǎng)”
（China.com）,99年7月一開(kāi)市就飆升三倍。今年,好幾家中國(guó)的網(wǎng)際網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司也將在國(guó)外上市,預(yù)計(jì)將在紐約股市掀起另一波中國(guó)熱。
中國(guó)方面,不少上市公司為網(wǎng)絡(luò)投下大筆資金。截至目前,深滬兩市已有近10%的公司與網(wǎng)絡(luò)有關(guān),構(gòu)成了中國(guó)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)股一族。香港也設(shè)立巨額基金投資于網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技,“數(shù)碼港”、“中藥港”等大行其道,更有七成工商企業(yè)表示今年要增加網(wǎng)絡(luò)科技方面的投資。
如何從網(wǎng)上抓住億萬(wàn)中國(guó)人、同中國(guó)人進(jìn)行電子商務(wù)所具有的發(fā)展?jié)撃?成了網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界談?wù)摰氖滓?huà)題之一。
當(dāng)然,目前華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)的發(fā)展仍然面對(duì)著一些問(wèn)題。中國(guó)政府對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上敏感內(nèi)容仍然非常警惕關(guān)注,中文內(nèi)碼轉(zhuǎn)換問(wèn)題造成閱讀與編輯方面的困難,也成為華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)的大一統(tǒng)事業(yè)的一些障礙。
但無(wú)論如何,英文網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間趨向飽和之際,華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)以無(wú)限商機(jī)、無(wú)限潛能,帶來(lái)遼闊的發(fā)展空間,令全球企業(yè)商界競(jìng)相掏錢(qián)出力,已是不爭(zhēng)的事實(shí)。
英文網(wǎng)絡(luò)腳步放緩,華文網(wǎng)絡(luò)奮起直追,是否能在十幾年內(nèi)超越英文或許還言之過(guò)早,不過(guò),要達(dá)到并駕齊驅(qū)、平起平坐的程度,也應(yīng)該是指日可待了吧！