主要測量方法就是病例死亡率-----感染病人的死亡率。對于1918-1919年西班牙的流感來說，這一數(shù)字是2.5%,1968年的大疫情這一數(shù)字為0.55.這也就說明了死亡率的巨大差別.
How is virulence measured?
The key measure is the case fatality rate — the proportion of infected people who die. For the Spanish flu of 1918-19, this was about 2.5 per cent, while for the 1968 pandemic it was below 0.5 per cent. This explains the huge difference in the death tolls.
到目前為止還不可能得出很可靠的豬流感死亡率.要想計(jì)算這一數(shù)字,必須知道感染總?cè)藬?shù)以及總的死亡人數(shù).但是墨西哥流感疫情的可靠數(shù)字還無從獲得.
即使是只有0.1%的低死亡率,如果病毒傳播得快,還是很危險(xiǎn)的.如果40%的英聯(lián)邦的人都被感染,死亡人數(shù)將達(dá)24萬,這是最壞的設(shè)想.
It has so far been impossible to establish the case fatality rate for swine flu with much reliability. To calculate it, you need to know the total number of infections as well as the total number of deaths, and reliable data on the Mexican outbreak is not available.
Even a low case fatality rate, of 0.1 per cent, would still be dangerous if the virus spreads very widely. If 40 per cent of the UK population became infected, as the worst-case scenarios suggest, there could be as many as 240,000 deaths.
How is virulence measured?
The key measure is the case fatality rate — the proportion of infected people who die. For the Spanish flu of 1918-19, this was about 2.5 per cent, while for the 1968 pandemic it was below 0.5 per cent. This explains the huge difference in the death tolls.
到目前為止還不可能得出很可靠的豬流感死亡率.要想計(jì)算這一數(shù)字,必須知道感染總?cè)藬?shù)以及總的死亡人數(shù).但是墨西哥流感疫情的可靠數(shù)字還無從獲得.
即使是只有0.1%的低死亡率,如果病毒傳播得快,還是很危險(xiǎn)的.如果40%的英聯(lián)邦的人都被感染,死亡人數(shù)將達(dá)24萬,這是最壞的設(shè)想.
It has so far been impossible to establish the case fatality rate for swine flu with much reliability. To calculate it, you need to know the total number of infections as well as the total number of deaths, and reliable data on the Mexican outbreak is not available.
Even a low case fatality rate, of 0.1 per cent, would still be dangerous if the virus spreads very widely. If 40 per cent of the UK population became infected, as the worst-case scenarios suggest, there could be as many as 240,000 deaths.