Laying the Foundation for Future Growth
為未來(lái)的發(fā)展奠定基礎(chǔ)
As we address this immediate financial and economic crisis, it is important that we also lay the foundations for more balanced, sustained growth of the global economy once this recovery is firmly established.
在我們繼續(xù)處理當(dāng)前金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的同時(shí)，我們還要在恢復(fù)一旦確定時(shí)，重視為未來(lái)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)和更加均衡奠定基礎(chǔ)。
A successful transition to a more balanced and stable global economy will require very substantial changes to economic policy and financial regulation around the world. But some of the most important of those changes will have to come in the United States and China. How successful we are in Washington and Beijing will be critically important to the economic fortunes of the rest of the world. The effectiveness of U.S. policies will depend in part on China's, and the effectiveness of yours on ours.
成功地過渡到一個(gè)更加平衡和穩(wěn)定的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，將需要對(duì)世界各地的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和金融監(jiān)管進(jìn)行非常重大的變革。但是，這些變革中的一些最重要的部分將不得不在美國(guó)和中國(guó)進(jìn)行。我們?cè)谌A盛頓和北京的成功程度，將對(duì)世界其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)命運(yùn)至關(guān)重要。美國(guó)政策的成效將部分取決于中國(guó)的，反之亦然。
Although the United States and China start from very different positions, many of our domestic challenges are similar. In the United States, we are working to reform our health care system, to improve the quality of education, to rebuild our infrastructure, and to improve energy efficiency. These reforms are essential to boosting the productive capacity of our economy. These challenges are at the center of your reform priorities, too.
雖然美國(guó)和中國(guó)從不同的位置開始，我們的許多國(guó)內(nèi)改革的挑戰(zhàn)是相似的。我們正在努力改革我們的衛(wèi)生保健系統(tǒng)，提高教育質(zhì)量，重建我們的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，并提高能源效率。我們認(rèn)為這些改革對(duì)提高我們經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)能力是必不可少的。這些挑戰(zhàn)也是你們改革的重中之重。
We are both working to reform our financial systems. In the United States, our challenge is to create a more stable and more resilient financial system, with stronger protections for consumer and investors. As we work to strengthen and redesign regulation to achieve these objectives, our challenge is to preserve the core strengths of our financial system, which are its exceptional capacity to adapt and innovate and to channel capital for investment in new technologies and innovative companies. You have the benefit of being able to learn from our shortcomings, which have proved so damaging in the present crisis, as well as from our strengths.
我們雙方都在對(duì)我們的金融體系進(jìn)行改革。在美國(guó)，我們的挑戰(zhàn)是創(chuàng)建一個(gè)更穩(wěn)定、更具彈性的金融系統(tǒng)，為消費(fèi)者和投資者提供更強(qiáng)有力的保護(hù)。當(dāng)我們努力加強(qiáng)和重新設(shè)計(jì)規(guī)范以實(shí)現(xiàn)這些目標(biāo)時(shí)，我們面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是維護(hù)我們金融體系的核心優(yōu)勢(shì)，也就是在適應(yīng)、創(chuàng)新以及使資本流向新技術(shù)和創(chuàng)新公司方面的特殊能力。你們可以從學(xué)習(xí)我們的被當(dāng)前的危機(jī)證明具有如此破壞性的缺陷和我們的優(yōu)勢(shì)中獲益。
Our common challenge is to recognize that a more balanced and sustainable global recovery will require changes in the composition of growth in our two economies. Because of this, our policies have to be directed at very different outcomes.
我們共同的挑戰(zhàn)是要認(rèn)識(shí)到一個(gè)更加均衡的、可持續(xù)的全球復(fù)蘇將要求我們兩個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)構(gòu)成的變化。因此，我們的政策必須針對(duì)非常不同的結(jié)果。
In the United States, saving rates will have to increase, and the purchases of U.S. consumers cannot be as dominant a driver of growth as they have been in the past.
在美國(guó)，儲(chǔ)蓄率將不得不上升，同時(shí)美國(guó)消費(fèi)者的購(gòu)買不可能再像過去那樣作為增長(zhǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?BR> In China, as your leadership has recognized, growth that is sustainable growth will require a very substantial shift from external to domestic demand, from an investment and export intensive driven growth, to growth led by consumption. Strengthening domestic demand will also strengthen China's ability to weather fluctuations in global supply and demand.
在中國(guó)，正如你們的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)已經(jīng)意識(shí)到的，可持續(xù)的增長(zhǎng)將要求一個(gè)非常重大的從外部需求到國(guó)內(nèi)需求、從投資和出口密集型增長(zhǎng)到消費(fèi)導(dǎo)向型增長(zhǎng)的轉(zhuǎn)變。
If we are successful on these respective paths, public and private saving in the United States will increase as recovery strengthens, and as this happens, our current account deficit will come down. And in China, domestic demand will rise at a faster rate than overall GDP, led by a gradual shift to higher rates of consumption.
如果我們?cè)诟髯缘穆窂缴铣晒?，隨著復(fù)蘇增強(qiáng)，美國(guó)的公共和私人儲(chǔ)蓄將上升，并且隨之，我們的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字將減少。在中國(guó)，由于消費(fèi)比例的逐步轉(zhuǎn)高，中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)需求將以快于整體GDP的速度增長(zhǎng)。
Globally, recovery will have come more from a shift by high saving economies to stronger domestic demand and less from the American consumer.
在全球，復(fù)蘇將更多依靠高儲(chǔ)蓄經(jīng)濟(jì)體轉(zhuǎn)向更強(qiáng)的國(guó)內(nèi)需求，而更少依靠美國(guó)消費(fèi)者。
The policy framework for a successful transition to this outcome is starting to take shape.
為順利過渡到這一結(jié)果的政策框架已經(jīng)開始形成。
In the United States, we are putting in place the foundations for restoring fiscal sustainability.
在美國(guó)，我們正在建設(shè)恢復(fù)財(cái)政可持續(xù)性的基礎(chǔ)。
The President in his initial budget to Congress made it clear that, as soon as recovery is firmly established, we are going to have to bring our fiscal deficit down to a level that is sustainable over the medium term. This will mean bringing the imbalance between our fiscal resources and expenditures down to the point - roughly three percent of GDP -- where the overall level of public debt to GDP is definitively on a downward path. The temporary investments and tax incentives we put in place in the Recovery Act to strengthen private demand will have to expire, discretionary spending will have to fall back to a more modest level relative to GDP, and we will have to be very disciplined in limiting future commitments through the reintroduction of budget disciplines, such as pay-as-you go rules.
總統(tǒng)在給國(guó)會(huì)的初步預(yù)算中明確，一旦復(fù)蘇牢固確立，我們將必須削減財(cái)政赤字到一個(gè)中期可持續(xù)的水平。這意味著將我們的財(cái)政資源與支出之間的不平衡減少到這樣一點(diǎn) ---大約GDP的百分之三 --- 使公共債務(wù)占GDP的整體水平處于明確的下降路徑。我們的復(fù)興法案中提到的用以增強(qiáng)私人需求的暫時(shí)投資和稅收優(yōu)惠政策將到期，自由決定的支出將不得不回落到一個(gè)相對(duì)GDP更加適度的水平，并且我們將不得不非常有紀(jì)律的通過恢復(fù)預(yù)算紀(jì)律，例如現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制度，來(lái)限制未來(lái)的承諾。
The President also looks forward to working with Congress to further reduce our long-run fiscal deficit.
總統(tǒng)還期待與國(guó)會(huì)共同努力以進(jìn)一步減少我們長(zhǎng)期的財(cái)政赤字。
And, critical to our long-term fiscal health, we have to put in place comprehensive health care reform that will bring down the growth in health care costs, costs that are the principal driver of our long run fiscal deficit.
同時(shí)，作為我們長(zhǎng)期財(cái)政健康的關(guān)鍵，我們必須進(jìn)行全面的衛(wèi)生保健改革，以降低衛(wèi)生保健成本的增長(zhǎng)，這些成本是我們長(zhǎng)期財(cái)政赤字的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?BR> The President has also proposed steps to encourage private saving, including through automatic enrollment in retirement savings accounts.
總統(tǒng)還建議了鼓勵(lì)私人儲(chǔ)蓄的步驟，包括通過自動(dòng)注冊(cè)退休儲(chǔ)蓄賬戶。
Alongside these fiscal actions, we have designed our policies to address the financial crisis to carefully minimize risk to the taxpayer and to allow for an orderly exit or unwinding as soon as conditions permit. Across the various financial facilities put in place by the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the FDIC, we have been careful to set the economic terms at a level so that demand for these facilities will fade as conditions normalize and risk premia recede. Banks have a strong incentive to replace public capital with private capital as soon as conditions permit.
除了這些財(cái)政行動(dòng)，我們?cè)O(shè)計(jì)我們的政策以解決金融危機(jī)，從而謹(jǐn)慎的最小化納稅人的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并且一旦條件許可就允許有序的退出或解除。在所有財(cái)政部、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和聯(lián)邦存款保險(xiǎn)公司設(shè)立的各種金融機(jī)構(gòu)中，我們一直在謹(jǐn)慎地確定經(jīng)濟(jì)條款水平，以便當(dāng)條件正?；L(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)消退時(shí)對(duì)這些機(jī)構(gòu)的需求將會(huì)淡出。一旦條件允許，銀行有強(qiáng)烈的動(dòng)機(jī)用私人資本替換公共資本。
Let me be clear - the United States is committed to a strong and stable international financial system. The Obama Administration fully recognizes that the United States has a special responsibility to play in this regard, and we fully appreciate that exercising this special responsibility begins at home. As we recover from this unprecedented crisis, we will cut our fiscal deficit, we will eliminate the extraordinary governmental support that we have put in place to overcome the crisis, we will continue to preserve the openness of our economy, and we will resolutely maintain the policy framework necessary for durable and lasting sustained non-inflationary growth.
In China, the challenge is fundamentally different, and at least as complex.
在中國(guó)，挑戰(zhàn)有根本的不同，但至少一樣復(fù)雜。
Critical to the success of your efforts to shift future growth to domestic demand are measures to raise household incomes and to reduce the need that households feel to save large amounts for precautionary reasons or to pay for major expenditures like education. This involves strengthening the social safety net with health care reform and more complete public retirement systems, enacting financial reforms to help expand access to credit for households, and providing products that allow households to insure against risk. These efforts can be funded through the increased collection of dividends from state-owned enterprises.
成功實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)向國(guó)內(nèi)需求推動(dòng)未來(lái)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵是增加居民收入和減少因?yàn)榉烙蚝陀糜诶缃逃闹饕С龅仁咕用裼X得需要大量?jī)?chǔ)蓄的需求。這包括增強(qiáng)社會(huì)保障體系包括衛(wèi)生保健改革和更完善的公共退休系統(tǒng)，實(shí)施金融改革以幫助擴(kuò)大居民的信用獲得并提供產(chǎn)品幫助居民防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
The structure of the Chinese economy will shift as domestic demand grows in importance, with a larger service sector, more emphasis on light industry, and less emphasis on heavy, capital intensive export and import-competing industries. The resulting growth will generate greater employment, and be less energy-intensive than the current structure of Chinese industry. Allowing the market, interest rates, and other prices to function to encourage the shift in production will be particularly important.
當(dāng)國(guó)內(nèi)需求的重要性增加的時(shí)候，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的結(jié)構(gòu)將轉(zhuǎn)變，更大的服務(wù)業(yè)，更強(qiáng)調(diào)輕工業(yè)，并減少?gòu)?qiáng)調(diào)重工業(yè)、資本密集出口和進(jìn)口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)業(yè)。由此帶來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)將產(chǎn)生更多的就業(yè)，和較目前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)更少的能源密集。允許市場(chǎng)、利率和其他價(jià)格發(fā)揮作用以鼓勵(lì)生產(chǎn)的轉(zhuǎn)變是至關(guān)重要的。
An important part of this strategy is the government's commitment to continue progress toward a more flexible exchange rate regime. Greater exchange rate flexibility will help reinforce the shift in the composition of growth, encourage resource shifts to support domestic demand, and provide greater ability for monetary policy to achieve sustained growth with low inflation in the future.
這一策略的一個(gè)重要部分是政府承諾將繼續(xù)向更靈活的匯率政策推進(jìn)。更大的匯率靈活性將幫助加強(qiáng)增長(zhǎng)構(gòu)成的轉(zhuǎn)變，鼓勵(lì)資源向支持國(guó)內(nèi)需求轉(zhuǎn)移，并提供貨幣政策更大的能力，以實(shí)現(xiàn)將來(lái)的持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)和低通貨膨脹率。