三周前在倫敦和格拉斯哥發(fā)生的未遂恐怖襲擊讓很多人感到驚訝，其原因有二：一是嫌犯都是受過(guò)教育的醫(yī)學(xué)專業(yè)人士，而不是絕望的、未受過(guò)教育的流浪漢；二是這件事竟然弄得如此糟糕。
The attempted terrorist attacks in London and Glasgow three weeks ago surprised many people for two reasons: that the suspects were all educated medical professionals rather than desperate, uneducated vagrants; and that the job should have been botched so badly.
如今看來(lái)，受過(guò)教育的專業(yè)人士可能會(huì)從事恐怖活動(dòng)，這一點(diǎn)不應(yīng)太過(guò)令人吃驚。我的同事吉迪恩o拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)曾提醒我們，奧薩馬o本o拉登(Osama bin Laden)就是一個(gè)出自極端富裕家庭的工程師，他的副手也是一名醫(yī)生。
That educated professionals might turn to terrorism should not, by now, be much of a surprise. My colleague Gideon Rachman has reminded us that Osama bin Laden is an engineer who comes from a fabulously wealthy family and his deputy is a doctor.
新書(shū)《恐怖分子從何而來(lái)？》(What Makes a Terrorist?)的作者、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾倫o克魯格(Alan Krueger)對(duì)有關(guān)證據(jù)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)性研究，希望對(duì)這種現(xiàn)象一探究竟。他的結(jié)論是：恐怖分子、政治極端分子和仇恨罪罪犯，通常都相對(duì)比較富裕。
The economist Alan Krueger, author of a new book called What Makes a Terrorist?, explores this phenomenon with a systematic study of the evidence. He concludes that terrorists, political extremists and those who commit hate crimes are often relatively well-to-do.
這件事很難證實(shí)，主要原因是上述每一個(gè)范疇都是有爭(zhēng)議的，而且有時(shí)候兩個(gè)地方（例如北愛(ài)爾蘭和斯里蘭卡）的情況天差地別?？唆敻駷g覽了不同來(lái)源的資料（每個(gè)來(lái)源都有缺點(diǎn)），試圖根據(jù)民意調(diào)查、恐怖分子傳記和更廣泛的研究來(lái)構(gòu)建一幅令人信服的圖景。
This is a difficult thing to prove, not least because each of those categories is controversial and there is a world of difference between, say, Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka. Krueger dips into different sources of data, each one imperfect, trying to build up a compelling picture from opinion polls, biographies of terrorists and broader studies.
2001年12月在加沙和約旦河西岸進(jìn)行的民意調(diào)查顯示，相對(duì)于失業(yè)人員和體力勞動(dòng)者，學(xué)生和專業(yè)人士更有可能提出，恐怖主義行為可能是正當(dāng)?shù)?，也更有可能認(rèn)為，在特拉維夫一家夜總會(huì)發(fā)生的自殺性炸彈襲擊不應(yīng)被稱為"恐怖行動(dòng)"。（在這些問(wèn)題上，調(diào)查顯示出更多的一致性而非分歧，但顯然不能證明教育或財(cái)富會(huì)讓人觀點(diǎn)更趨溫和。）
Opinion polls from Gaza and the West Bank, conducted in December 2001, show that students and professionals are more likely than the unemployed or labourers to say that terrorism can be justified, and more likely to deny that a suicide bombing in a Tel Aviv night club should be described as "a terrorist act". (The polls reveal more unanimity than disagreement on these points, but certainly offer no evidence that education or wealth leads to more moderate views.)
在普林斯頓就讀研究生時(shí)，年輕的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克勞德o白萊比(Claude Berrebi)收集了40多個(gè)巴勒斯坦自殺式炸彈襲擊者的資料，得出結(jié)論：這些人比普通巴勒斯坦人的受教育程度更高，也更富有。克魯格用129個(gè)黎巴嫩真主黨戰(zhàn)士的傳記，對(duì)這幅圖景進(jìn)行了補(bǔ)充。這些人在試圖實(shí)施恐怖襲擊時(shí)做出了不必要的犧牲。同樣，與同時(shí)代的普通黎巴嫩青年相比，他們的受教育程度更高一些，受窮的可能性更低。
When a graduate student at Princeton, the young economist Claude Berrebi gathered data on more than 40 Palestinian suicide bombers; he concluded that they were far better educated than the typical Palestinian, and also richer. Krueger offers a complementary picture using biographies of 129 Hizbollah fighters killed in action, although not necessarily while attempting a terrorist attack. They, too, were somewhat better educated and less likely to be poor than the typical young Lebanese man of the time.
更多的間接證據(jù)來(lái)自對(duì)仇恨犯罪的研究，這些犯罪被視為與恐怖主義有著類似之處。經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)機(jī)在此還是難覓蹤跡。"每當(dāng)棉花價(jià)格走低（顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困難時(shí)期）的時(shí)候，美國(guó)南部的私刑就會(huì)更常見(jiàn)"，這曾經(jīng)是人們的常識(shí)。但如今，歷史學(xué)家們?cè)僖膊幌嘈艃烧咧g存在關(guān)聯(lián)了?？傮w而言，仇恨犯罪在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期似乎并不更常見(jiàn)，雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾米莉o奧斯特(Emily Oster)似乎在中世紀(jì)的政治迫害中發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)例外，那就是：在農(nóng)作物歉收時(shí)，政治迫害更為常見(jiàn)。
More indirect evidence comes from studies of hate crimes, which are thought to have some parallels with terrorism. Again, economic motives are hard to find. It was once the conventional wisdom that lynchings in the American south were more common whenever cotton prices were low, indicating tough times for the economy. Historians no longer believe in the correlation. In general, hate crimes do not seem to be more common in economic downturns - although the economist Emily Oster seems to have found an exception in medieval witch-hunts, which were more common when crops failed.
總而言之，克魯格收集的研究結(jié)果顯示，如果說(shuō)貧窮、教育和恐怖主義之間有聯(lián)系的話，那也是與人們的普遍看法相反。在看到恐怖分子能寫(xiě)會(huì)算，甚至還能開(kāi)處方時(shí)，我們不應(yīng)感到驚訝。
All in all, the research that Krueger gathers together suggests that if there is a link between poverty, education and terrorism, it is the opposite of the one popularly assumed. We should not be surprised to find that terrorists can add up, read, and even write prescriptions.
更令人驚奇的是，倫敦和格拉斯哥的襲擊者竟然如此無(wú)能。克勞德o白萊比和哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾弗萊姆o本米萊克(Efraim Benmelech)研究了巴勒斯坦恐怖集團(tuán)的"人力資源政策"。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，年長(zhǎng)的、受教育程度較高的恐怖主義分子會(huì)得到更重要的自殺任務(wù)，殺死的人也更多。比如說(shuō)，受過(guò)高中以上教育的人逃脫追捕的幾率要高出一倍。
What is more surprising is that the attackers in London and Glasgow were so incompetent. Claude Berrebi and the Harvard economist Efraim Benmelech studied - there's no nice way to put this - the human-resources policies of Palestinian terrorist groups. They found that older, better-educated terrorists secured more important suicide missions and killed more people. Having more than a high school education doubles the chance of escaping capture, for example.
如果這次的恐怖分子的確是那些涉嫌犯罪的醫(yī)生或其它專業(yè)人士，那將證明，即便是多年的教育和經(jīng)驗(yàn)也不能確保襲擊的成功。炸死無(wú)辜的人顯然比表面上更困難，我們都應(yīng)該對(duì)此感到慶幸。
If the terrorists in this case do turn out to be the doctors and other professionals who are, as I write, suspected of the crime, it would demonstrate that even years of education and experience do not guarantee a successful attack. Blowing up innocent people is obviously harder than it looks, and for that we can all be grateful.
The attempted terrorist attacks in London and Glasgow three weeks ago surprised many people for two reasons: that the suspects were all educated medical professionals rather than desperate, uneducated vagrants; and that the job should have been botched so badly.
如今看來(lái)，受過(guò)教育的專業(yè)人士可能會(huì)從事恐怖活動(dòng)，這一點(diǎn)不應(yīng)太過(guò)令人吃驚。我的同事吉迪恩o拉赫曼(Gideon Rachman)曾提醒我們，奧薩馬o本o拉登(Osama bin Laden)就是一個(gè)出自極端富裕家庭的工程師，他的副手也是一名醫(yī)生。
That educated professionals might turn to terrorism should not, by now, be much of a surprise. My colleague Gideon Rachman has reminded us that Osama bin Laden is an engineer who comes from a fabulously wealthy family and his deputy is a doctor.
新書(shū)《恐怖分子從何而來(lái)？》(What Makes a Terrorist?)的作者、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾倫o克魯格(Alan Krueger)對(duì)有關(guān)證據(jù)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)性研究，希望對(duì)這種現(xiàn)象一探究竟。他的結(jié)論是：恐怖分子、政治極端分子和仇恨罪罪犯，通常都相對(duì)比較富裕。
The economist Alan Krueger, author of a new book called What Makes a Terrorist?, explores this phenomenon with a systematic study of the evidence. He concludes that terrorists, political extremists and those who commit hate crimes are often relatively well-to-do.
這件事很難證實(shí)，主要原因是上述每一個(gè)范疇都是有爭(zhēng)議的，而且有時(shí)候兩個(gè)地方（例如北愛(ài)爾蘭和斯里蘭卡）的情況天差地別?？唆敻駷g覽了不同來(lái)源的資料（每個(gè)來(lái)源都有缺點(diǎn)），試圖根據(jù)民意調(diào)查、恐怖分子傳記和更廣泛的研究來(lái)構(gòu)建一幅令人信服的圖景。
This is a difficult thing to prove, not least because each of those categories is controversial and there is a world of difference between, say, Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka. Krueger dips into different sources of data, each one imperfect, trying to build up a compelling picture from opinion polls, biographies of terrorists and broader studies.
2001年12月在加沙和約旦河西岸進(jìn)行的民意調(diào)查顯示，相對(duì)于失業(yè)人員和體力勞動(dòng)者，學(xué)生和專業(yè)人士更有可能提出，恐怖主義行為可能是正當(dāng)?shù)?，也更有可能認(rèn)為，在特拉維夫一家夜總會(huì)發(fā)生的自殺性炸彈襲擊不應(yīng)被稱為"恐怖行動(dòng)"。（在這些問(wèn)題上，調(diào)查顯示出更多的一致性而非分歧，但顯然不能證明教育或財(cái)富會(huì)讓人觀點(diǎn)更趨溫和。）
Opinion polls from Gaza and the West Bank, conducted in December 2001, show that students and professionals are more likely than the unemployed or labourers to say that terrorism can be justified, and more likely to deny that a suicide bombing in a Tel Aviv night club should be described as "a terrorist act". (The polls reveal more unanimity than disagreement on these points, but certainly offer no evidence that education or wealth leads to more moderate views.)
在普林斯頓就讀研究生時(shí)，年輕的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克勞德o白萊比(Claude Berrebi)收集了40多個(gè)巴勒斯坦自殺式炸彈襲擊者的資料，得出結(jié)論：這些人比普通巴勒斯坦人的受教育程度更高，也更富有。克魯格用129個(gè)黎巴嫩真主黨戰(zhàn)士的傳記，對(duì)這幅圖景進(jìn)行了補(bǔ)充。這些人在試圖實(shí)施恐怖襲擊時(shí)做出了不必要的犧牲。同樣，與同時(shí)代的普通黎巴嫩青年相比，他們的受教育程度更高一些，受窮的可能性更低。
When a graduate student at Princeton, the young economist Claude Berrebi gathered data on more than 40 Palestinian suicide bombers; he concluded that they were far better educated than the typical Palestinian, and also richer. Krueger offers a complementary picture using biographies of 129 Hizbollah fighters killed in action, although not necessarily while attempting a terrorist attack. They, too, were somewhat better educated and less likely to be poor than the typical young Lebanese man of the time.
更多的間接證據(jù)來(lái)自對(duì)仇恨犯罪的研究，這些犯罪被視為與恐怖主義有著類似之處。經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)機(jī)在此還是難覓蹤跡。"每當(dāng)棉花價(jià)格走低（顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困難時(shí)期）的時(shí)候，美國(guó)南部的私刑就會(huì)更常見(jiàn)"，這曾經(jīng)是人們的常識(shí)。但如今，歷史學(xué)家們?cè)僖膊幌嘈艃烧咧g存在關(guān)聯(lián)了?？傮w而言，仇恨犯罪在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期似乎并不更常見(jiàn)，雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾米莉o奧斯特(Emily Oster)似乎在中世紀(jì)的政治迫害中發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)例外，那就是：在農(nóng)作物歉收時(shí)，政治迫害更為常見(jiàn)。
More indirect evidence comes from studies of hate crimes, which are thought to have some parallels with terrorism. Again, economic motives are hard to find. It was once the conventional wisdom that lynchings in the American south were more common whenever cotton prices were low, indicating tough times for the economy. Historians no longer believe in the correlation. In general, hate crimes do not seem to be more common in economic downturns - although the economist Emily Oster seems to have found an exception in medieval witch-hunts, which were more common when crops failed.
總而言之，克魯格收集的研究結(jié)果顯示，如果說(shuō)貧窮、教育和恐怖主義之間有聯(lián)系的話，那也是與人們的普遍看法相反。在看到恐怖分子能寫(xiě)會(huì)算，甚至還能開(kāi)處方時(shí)，我們不應(yīng)感到驚訝。
All in all, the research that Krueger gathers together suggests that if there is a link between poverty, education and terrorism, it is the opposite of the one popularly assumed. We should not be surprised to find that terrorists can add up, read, and even write prescriptions.
更令人驚奇的是，倫敦和格拉斯哥的襲擊者竟然如此無(wú)能。克勞德o白萊比和哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家艾弗萊姆o本米萊克(Efraim Benmelech)研究了巴勒斯坦恐怖集團(tuán)的"人力資源政策"。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，年長(zhǎng)的、受教育程度較高的恐怖主義分子會(huì)得到更重要的自殺任務(wù)，殺死的人也更多。比如說(shuō)，受過(guò)高中以上教育的人逃脫追捕的幾率要高出一倍。
What is more surprising is that the attackers in London and Glasgow were so incompetent. Claude Berrebi and the Harvard economist Efraim Benmelech studied - there's no nice way to put this - the human-resources policies of Palestinian terrorist groups. They found that older, better-educated terrorists secured more important suicide missions and killed more people. Having more than a high school education doubles the chance of escaping capture, for example.
如果這次的恐怖分子的確是那些涉嫌犯罪的醫(yī)生或其它專業(yè)人士，那將證明，即便是多年的教育和經(jīng)驗(yàn)也不能確保襲擊的成功。炸死無(wú)辜的人顯然比表面上更困難，我們都應(yīng)該對(duì)此感到慶幸。
If the terrorists in this case do turn out to be the doctors and other professionals who are, as I write, suspected of the crime, it would demonstrate that even years of education and experience do not guarantee a successful attack. Blowing up innocent people is obviously harder than it looks, and for that we can all be grateful.