亞洲開發(fā)銀行(ADB)行長黑田東彥(Haruhiko Kuroda)昨日表示，由于美國經(jīng)濟放緩和油價上漲，今年亞洲發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體的增長可能放緩。
Growth in Asia’s developing economies is likely to slacken this year because of the US slowdown and higher fuel prices, the president of the Asian Development Bank said yesterday.
黑田東彥向英國《金融時報》表示，在亞開行計劃于3月份發(fā)布的下一批預(yù)測中，對亞洲地區(qū)（包括中國，但不包括日本）經(jīng)濟增長的預(yù)期是“略低于”8%。
Haruhiko Kuroda told the Financial Times that the ADB’s next set of forecasts, due to be published in March, would put regional growth – including China but excluding Japan – at “slightly less’’ than 8 per cent.
相比之下，去年9月份亞開行將其對2008年亞洲地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測從7.7%調(diào)高至8.2%，同時預(yù)計，由于亞洲地區(qū)對國際貸款的依賴程度降低，該地區(qū)將經(jīng)受住信貸緊縮所引發(fā)的任何經(jīng)濟放緩的影響。
This compares with a forecast of 8.2 per cent in September, when the Asian lender raised its forecast for 2008 from 7.7 per cent and predicted that the region would weather any slowdown generated by the credit squeeze because of its reduced reliance on international lending.
亞開行對亞洲地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的觀點日益悲觀，證實了該行并不認可去年出現(xiàn)的一種理論：即亞洲各經(jīng)濟體的增長已與全球其它地區(qū)“脫鉤”，即便面臨美國經(jīng)濟衰退，該地區(qū)也能持續(xù)增長。
The ADB’s growing pessimism about the regional economy confirms that it has rejected the theory that emerged last year that Asian economies had “decoupled” from the rest of the world and could continue growing even in the face of a US recession.
黑田東彥發(fā)出上述警告之際，高盛(Goldman Sachs)將其對亞洲地區(qū)的增長預(yù)測從8.6%下調(diào)至8.3%。
Mr Kuroda’s warning came as Goldman Sachs lowered its growth forecast for the region to 8.3 per cent from 8.6 percent.
該行稱此次下調(diào)預(yù)期“意味深長，但并非是災(zāi)難性的”，這表明西方國家對亞洲制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品需求下降，不太可能對市場產(chǎn)生重大影響。
The bank described the cut as “meaningful but not disastrous”, indicating that a fall in western demand for Asian manufactured goods was unlikely to have big consequences for markets.
但黑田東彥表示，亞洲通脹日益加劇，將成為“今年真正嚴重的問題”，要想對抗通脹，亞洲各國政府將必須取消或降低國內(nèi)補貼，特別是燃油補貼。本月早些時候，油價一度突破每桶100美元大關(guān)。
However, Mr Kuroda said rising Asian inflation would be “a really serious issue this year”, which governments would have to confront by eliminating or reducing domestic subsidies, in particular for fuel after oil briefly breached $100 a barrel earlier this month.
黑田東彥不愿就具體某個國家置評，但他表示，即使亞洲許多國家政府或許利用其“相當穩(wěn)健的財政狀況”，以推遲進一步改革，但就更長期來看，補貼安排是“不可持續(xù)的”。
Mr Kuroda would not comment on specific countries but he said subsidy arrangements were “unsustainable’’ in the longer term, even if many Asian governments might use their “fairly sound fiscal position” to delay further reform.
近來，通脹加劇已在亞洲引發(fā)普遍反應(yīng)，例如從越南的工廠罷工，到中國一些超市促銷引發(fā)的踩踏事件等。 Higher inflation has recently triggered popular reaction in Asia ranging from factory strikes in Vietnam to stampedes for discounted items at some Chinese supermarkets.
高盛昨日還表示，“日本也正徘徊在經(jīng)濟衰退邊緣”這一事實，將加劇美國需求不斷走弱的影響。
Goldman Sachs also argued yesterday that the impact of weakening American demand would be exacerbated by the fact that “Japan is also teetering on the edge of recession’’.
但黑田東彥表示，日本將擺脫經(jīng)濟困境。他預(yù)計，由于下半年增長抬頭，日本今年的經(jīng)濟增長率約為2%。
However, Mr Kuroda said his country would emerge from its economic difficulties. He predicted Japanese growth this year of about 2 per cent thanks to a pick-up in the second half.
Growth in Asia’s developing economies is likely to slacken this year because of the US slowdown and higher fuel prices, the president of the Asian Development Bank said yesterday.
黑田東彥向英國《金融時報》表示，在亞開行計劃于3月份發(fā)布的下一批預(yù)測中，對亞洲地區(qū)（包括中國，但不包括日本）經(jīng)濟增長的預(yù)期是“略低于”8%。
Haruhiko Kuroda told the Financial Times that the ADB’s next set of forecasts, due to be published in March, would put regional growth – including China but excluding Japan – at “slightly less’’ than 8 per cent.
相比之下，去年9月份亞開行將其對2008年亞洲地區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測從7.7%調(diào)高至8.2%，同時預(yù)計，由于亞洲地區(qū)對國際貸款的依賴程度降低，該地區(qū)將經(jīng)受住信貸緊縮所引發(fā)的任何經(jīng)濟放緩的影響。
This compares with a forecast of 8.2 per cent in September, when the Asian lender raised its forecast for 2008 from 7.7 per cent and predicted that the region would weather any slowdown generated by the credit squeeze because of its reduced reliance on international lending.
亞開行對亞洲地區(qū)經(jīng)濟的觀點日益悲觀，證實了該行并不認可去年出現(xiàn)的一種理論：即亞洲各經(jīng)濟體的增長已與全球其它地區(qū)“脫鉤”，即便面臨美國經(jīng)濟衰退，該地區(qū)也能持續(xù)增長。
The ADB’s growing pessimism about the regional economy confirms that it has rejected the theory that emerged last year that Asian economies had “decoupled” from the rest of the world and could continue growing even in the face of a US recession.
黑田東彥發(fā)出上述警告之際，高盛(Goldman Sachs)將其對亞洲地區(qū)的增長預(yù)測從8.6%下調(diào)至8.3%。
Mr Kuroda’s warning came as Goldman Sachs lowered its growth forecast for the region to 8.3 per cent from 8.6 percent.
該行稱此次下調(diào)預(yù)期“意味深長，但并非是災(zāi)難性的”，這表明西方國家對亞洲制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品需求下降，不太可能對市場產(chǎn)生重大影響。
The bank described the cut as “meaningful but not disastrous”, indicating that a fall in western demand for Asian manufactured goods was unlikely to have big consequences for markets.
但黑田東彥表示，亞洲通脹日益加劇，將成為“今年真正嚴重的問題”，要想對抗通脹，亞洲各國政府將必須取消或降低國內(nèi)補貼，特別是燃油補貼。本月早些時候，油價一度突破每桶100美元大關(guān)。
However, Mr Kuroda said rising Asian inflation would be “a really serious issue this year”, which governments would have to confront by eliminating or reducing domestic subsidies, in particular for fuel after oil briefly breached $100 a barrel earlier this month.
黑田東彥不愿就具體某個國家置評，但他表示，即使亞洲許多國家政府或許利用其“相當穩(wěn)健的財政狀況”，以推遲進一步改革，但就更長期來看，補貼安排是“不可持續(xù)的”。
Mr Kuroda would not comment on specific countries but he said subsidy arrangements were “unsustainable’’ in the longer term, even if many Asian governments might use their “fairly sound fiscal position” to delay further reform.
近來，通脹加劇已在亞洲引發(fā)普遍反應(yīng)，例如從越南的工廠罷工，到中國一些超市促銷引發(fā)的踩踏事件等。 Higher inflation has recently triggered popular reaction in Asia ranging from factory strikes in Vietnam to stampedes for discounted items at some Chinese supermarkets.
高盛昨日還表示，“日本也正徘徊在經(jīng)濟衰退邊緣”這一事實，將加劇美國需求不斷走弱的影響。
Goldman Sachs also argued yesterday that the impact of weakening American demand would be exacerbated by the fact that “Japan is also teetering on the edge of recession’’.
但黑田東彥表示，日本將擺脫經(jīng)濟困境。他預(yù)計，由于下半年增長抬頭，日本今年的經(jīng)濟增長率約為2%。
However, Mr Kuroda said his country would emerge from its economic difficulties. He predicted Japanese growth this year of about 2 per cent thanks to a pick-up in the second half.