BEC中級閱讀:全球企業(yè)信心指數(shù)降至5年最低(1)

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一項投資銀行業(yè)的調(diào)查顯示,由于對金融市場波動和美國經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)好壞參半心存憂慮,全球某些企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖的信心已滑落至自2002年6月以來的最低水平。
    Confidence among some of the world’s top business leaders has slumped to its lowest levels since June 2002, suffering from concerns about financial market volatility and mixed US economic data, according to an investment banking survey.
    高盛信心指數(shù)(Goldman Sachs Confidence Index)這項截至8月份第一周的國際性調(diào)查,是根據(jù)首席執(zhí)行官們對商業(yè)環(huán)境的評估編撰而成,被視為描述企業(yè)信心的重要指標(biāo)。最新調(diào)查顯示,繼過去幾個季度的樂觀數(shù)據(jù)之后,企業(yè)首席執(zhí)行官對今年第三季度前景的信心已大幅下降。
    The Goldman Sachs Confidence Index, an international survey conducted until the first week of August, is based on chief executives’ assessments of business conditions and regarded as a leading indicator of corporate sentiment. The latest survey shows their outlook for the third quarter of the year has declined dramatically, after buoyant readings in the past few quarters.
    今年第三季度全球商業(yè)前景總體讀數(shù)為33,較第二季度的57大幅下降。
    The headline reading for the global business outlook for the third quarter stands at 33 – a steep fall from the reading of 57 in the second quarter.
    50的讀數(shù),標(biāo)志著認為商業(yè)環(huán)境正在改善的首席執(zhí)行官與持相反觀點的首席執(zhí)行官之間的分水嶺。高盛是在金融市場震蕩的頭兩周期間展開的此項調(diào)查。
    A score of 50 marks the dividing line between executives who think conditions are improving and those who feel they are worsening. Goldman ran the survey during the first two weeks of turmoil in financial markets.
    不過,信心驟降尚未對交易意愿構(gòu)成影響,某些行業(yè)的一些首席執(zhí)行官還認為,信貸危機是他們在出價方面超越其私人股本競爭對手的一個機會,因為信貸危機迫使這些私人股本退出競購。
    However, the collapse of confidence has not yet affected the willingness to do deals and several chief executives in several sectors see the credit crunch as an opportunity to outbid their private equity rivals as it forces them to the sidelines.
    高盛資深全球經(jīng)濟學(xué)家桑德拉?勞森(Sandra Lawson)表示:“近期前景存在大量不確定性,但如果信貸危機對私人股本造成影響,這可能也為企業(yè)帶來一個機遇,特別是在交易價格下降的時候?!?BR>    “There is an enormous amount of uncertainty about the outlook in the near-term, but if the credit shock hurts private equity, it may also provide an opportunity for corporates, especially as deal multiples come down,” said Sandra Lawson, senior global economist at Goldman Sachs.
    本月,由于私人股本集團CVC Capital Partners未能為其收購交易提供融資,帝國煙草公司(Imperial Tobacco)以高價成功購得法國和西班牙合資的阿塔迪斯煙草公司(Altadis)。3月份,在競購阿克蘇(Akzo)旗下制藥公司Organon Biosciences時,美國制藥集團先靈葆雅(Schering Plough)擊敗了私人股本公司。
    This month, Imperial Tobacco outbid CVC Capital Partners to buy Altadis, the Franco-Spanish tobacco company, after the private equity group was unable to finance its deal. In March, Schering Plough, the US pharmaceuticals group, beat private equity firms in the auction for Organon Biosciences, an Akzo-owned pharmaceutical unit.
    瑞銀集團(UBS)歐洲并購業(yè)務(wù)主管湯姆?庫珀(Tom Cooper)表示,目前企業(yè)應(yīng)處于從此次市場調(diào)整中獲益的最有利地位。他表示:“特別是對于投資級的企業(yè)來說,這可能是一次機會。與私人股本不同,戰(zhàn)略性買家能夠通過自有資金來彌補融資缺口。”
    Tom Cooper, European head of M&A at UBS said corporate buyers should be best placed to benefit from this correction. “There could be a window of opportunity for investment grade buyers in particular. Unlike private equity, strategic buyers can bridge funding gaps with their own paper,” he said.
    信心指數(shù)還顯示,廠房和設(shè)備方面的資本支出數(shù)據(jù)幾乎沒有變化。這方面的資本支出是利潤和經(jīng)濟增長的傳統(tǒng)動力。
    The confidence index also showed little change in the readings for capital spending on factories and equipment – the traditional engine of profit and economic growth.
    盡管全球信心指數(shù)從第二季度的68降至第三季度的57,但美國首席執(zhí)行官們預(yù)計商業(yè)環(huán)境將略有改善。
    Although the global reading has fallen from 68 in the second quarter to 57 in the third, US chief executives expected conditions to improve slightly