劍橋大學(xué)(Cambridge university)的研究人員日前警告，一場全球銀行業(yè)危機(jī)引發(fā)的緊張和焦慮，可能導(dǎo)致成千上萬人死于心臟病發(fā)作。
A global banking crisis would kill tens of thousands of people through heart attacks brought on by stress and anxiety, Cambridge university researchers warn today.
社會流行病學(xué)家戴維?斯圖克勒(David Stuckler)和他的同事表示，他們進(jìn)行的這項(xiàng)研究首次將銀行危機(jī)與人口死亡率聯(lián)系起來。在對世界銀行(World Bank)和世界衛(wèi)生組織(World Health Organisation)長達(dá)40年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析后，他們的結(jié)論是，一場“系統(tǒng)性”危機(jī)會使富裕國家的心臟病死亡率平均提高6.4%——發(fā)展中國家的數(shù)值更高。
David Stuckler and colleagues have carried out what they say is the first study relating banking crises to mortality. Their statistical analysis of 40 years’ data from the World Bank and World Health Organisation concludes that a “system-wide” crisis increases deaths from heart disease by an average 6.4 per cent in wealthy countries – and more in developing countries.
這些劍橋的研究人員稱，在英國，如果“大部分銀行”遭遇與北巖銀行(Northern Rock)類似的危機(jī)，可能導(dǎo)致1300至5100人死亡。他們走訪了去年9月在北巖銀行門口排隊(duì)取錢的人，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些人情緒之緊張趕上了遭遇地震、戰(zhàn)爭甚至是恐怖襲擊時(shí)的情形。
The Cambridge researchers say that in Britain between 1,300 and 5,100 people could die if “a significant proportion of banks” suffered crises similar to that at Northern Rock. Interviews with people queueing to take their money out of Northern Rock last September showed they suffered stress similar to that experienced in earthquakes, wars or even terrorist incidents.
“我們的研究表明，金融危機(jī)不只是錢的問題——它們也會影響人們的健康，”斯圖克勒博士表示?！斑@份報(bào)告顯示，抑制歇斯底里、防范大范圍恐慌很重要，這不僅有利于防止導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)性銀行危機(jī)的事件，也有利于防止成千上萬人死于心臟病?！?BR> “Our findings show that financial crises aren’t just about money – they also impact on people’s health,” said Dr Stuckler, a social epidemiologist. “This report shows that containing hysteria and preventing widespread panic is important not only to stop these incidents leading to a systemic bank crisis but also to prevent potentially thousands of heart disease deaths.”
英國心臟病基金會(British Heart Foundation)的心臟科護(hù)士瓊?戴維森(June Davison)在評論劍橋大學(xué)的研究時(shí)表示：“人們很早就發(fā)現(xiàn)，情緒極其緊張可能使患有冠心病的人心臟病發(fā)作。但我們依然需要進(jìn)一步了解其中的機(jī)理。”
Commenting on the Cambridge study, June Davison, cardiac nurse at the British Heart Foundation, said: “Intense emotional stress has long been associated with triggering heart attacks in those people with existing coronary heart disease. However, we still need to further understand the mechanisms of how this may happen.”
世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)庫包括117個(gè)系統(tǒng)性銀行危機(jī)，即一國相當(dāng)大一部分銀行出現(xiàn)破產(chǎn)或資不抵債的時(shí)期。在這些危機(jī)中，有5個(gè)發(fā)生在高收入經(jīng)合組織(OECD)國家——1977年在西班牙、1987年挪威、1991年芬蘭、瑞典和日本，但絕大多數(shù)危機(jī)發(fā)生在發(fā)展中世界。
The World Bank database includes 117 systemic bank crises, defined as episodes in which a significant proportion of a country’s banks fail or their assets are exhausted. Five of these affected high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries – Spain in 1977, Norway in 1987 and Finland, Sweden and Japan in 1991 – but the vast majority were in the developing world.
研究人員將銀行危機(jī)與世界衛(wèi)生組織全球死亡率數(shù)據(jù)庫(WHO Global Mortality Database)中的男性心臟病死亡率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了關(guān)聯(lián)。他們的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型試圖校正潛在的“混淆性變量”，例如，無論是否存在銀行業(yè)危機(jī)，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和金融不確定性都可能導(dǎo)致死亡率上升。 The researchers related the banking crises to male cardiovascular death rates from the WHO Global Mortality Database. Their statistical models attempted to correct for potential “confounding variables”, such as the fact that an economic downturn and financial uncertainty may increase mortality rates regardless of whether there is a banking crisis.
結(jié)果顯示，每次發(fā)生系統(tǒng)性銀行危機(jī)，心臟病死亡率都會短暫上升。斯圖克勒博士稱，這一跡象在發(fā)展中國家更為明顯，或許是因?yàn)槟抢锏娜烁訐?dān)心，一旦銀行倒閉，他們將一無所有。相比之下，富裕國家擁有更為強(qiáng)大的金融和健康安絡(luò)。 The results show a brief surge in cardiac deaths every time there is a systemic bank failure. The effect is more pronounced in developing countries, said Dr Stuckler – perhaps because people there feel more concerned about losing everything if banks fail than their counterparts in wealthy countries where there is a stronger financial and health safety net.
劍橋大學(xué)的研究報(bào)告發(fā)表在《全球化和健康》(Globalisation and Health)雜志上。
The Cambridge report is published in the journal Globalisation and Health
A global banking crisis would kill tens of thousands of people through heart attacks brought on by stress and anxiety, Cambridge university researchers warn today.
社會流行病學(xué)家戴維?斯圖克勒(David Stuckler)和他的同事表示，他們進(jìn)行的這項(xiàng)研究首次將銀行危機(jī)與人口死亡率聯(lián)系起來。在對世界銀行(World Bank)和世界衛(wèi)生組織(World Health Organisation)長達(dá)40年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析后，他們的結(jié)論是，一場“系統(tǒng)性”危機(jī)會使富裕國家的心臟病死亡率平均提高6.4%——發(fā)展中國家的數(shù)值更高。
David Stuckler and colleagues have carried out what they say is the first study relating banking crises to mortality. Their statistical analysis of 40 years’ data from the World Bank and World Health Organisation concludes that a “system-wide” crisis increases deaths from heart disease by an average 6.4 per cent in wealthy countries – and more in developing countries.
這些劍橋的研究人員稱，在英國，如果“大部分銀行”遭遇與北巖銀行(Northern Rock)類似的危機(jī)，可能導(dǎo)致1300至5100人死亡。他們走訪了去年9月在北巖銀行門口排隊(duì)取錢的人，結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，這些人情緒之緊張趕上了遭遇地震、戰(zhàn)爭甚至是恐怖襲擊時(shí)的情形。
The Cambridge researchers say that in Britain between 1,300 and 5,100 people could die if “a significant proportion of banks” suffered crises similar to that at Northern Rock. Interviews with people queueing to take their money out of Northern Rock last September showed they suffered stress similar to that experienced in earthquakes, wars or even terrorist incidents.
“我們的研究表明，金融危機(jī)不只是錢的問題——它們也會影響人們的健康，”斯圖克勒博士表示?！斑@份報(bào)告顯示，抑制歇斯底里、防范大范圍恐慌很重要，這不僅有利于防止導(dǎo)致系統(tǒng)性銀行危機(jī)的事件，也有利于防止成千上萬人死于心臟病?！?BR> “Our findings show that financial crises aren’t just about money – they also impact on people’s health,” said Dr Stuckler, a social epidemiologist. “This report shows that containing hysteria and preventing widespread panic is important not only to stop these incidents leading to a systemic bank crisis but also to prevent potentially thousands of heart disease deaths.”
英國心臟病基金會(British Heart Foundation)的心臟科護(hù)士瓊?戴維森(June Davison)在評論劍橋大學(xué)的研究時(shí)表示：“人們很早就發(fā)現(xiàn)，情緒極其緊張可能使患有冠心病的人心臟病發(fā)作。但我們依然需要進(jìn)一步了解其中的機(jī)理。”
Commenting on the Cambridge study, June Davison, cardiac nurse at the British Heart Foundation, said: “Intense emotional stress has long been associated with triggering heart attacks in those people with existing coronary heart disease. However, we still need to further understand the mechanisms of how this may happen.”
世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)庫包括117個(gè)系統(tǒng)性銀行危機(jī)，即一國相當(dāng)大一部分銀行出現(xiàn)破產(chǎn)或資不抵債的時(shí)期。在這些危機(jī)中，有5個(gè)發(fā)生在高收入經(jīng)合組織(OECD)國家——1977年在西班牙、1987年挪威、1991年芬蘭、瑞典和日本，但絕大多數(shù)危機(jī)發(fā)生在發(fā)展中世界。
The World Bank database includes 117 systemic bank crises, defined as episodes in which a significant proportion of a country’s banks fail or their assets are exhausted. Five of these affected high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries – Spain in 1977, Norway in 1987 and Finland, Sweden and Japan in 1991 – but the vast majority were in the developing world.
研究人員將銀行危機(jī)與世界衛(wèi)生組織全球死亡率數(shù)據(jù)庫(WHO Global Mortality Database)中的男性心臟病死亡率數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了關(guān)聯(lián)。他們的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型試圖校正潛在的“混淆性變量”，例如，無論是否存在銀行業(yè)危機(jī)，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和金融不確定性都可能導(dǎo)致死亡率上升。 The researchers related the banking crises to male cardiovascular death rates from the WHO Global Mortality Database. Their statistical models attempted to correct for potential “confounding variables”, such as the fact that an economic downturn and financial uncertainty may increase mortality rates regardless of whether there is a banking crisis.
結(jié)果顯示，每次發(fā)生系統(tǒng)性銀行危機(jī)，心臟病死亡率都會短暫上升。斯圖克勒博士稱，這一跡象在發(fā)展中國家更為明顯，或許是因?yàn)槟抢锏娜烁訐?dān)心，一旦銀行倒閉，他們將一無所有。相比之下，富裕國家擁有更為強(qiáng)大的金融和健康安絡(luò)。 The results show a brief surge in cardiac deaths every time there is a systemic bank failure. The effect is more pronounced in developing countries, said Dr Stuckler – perhaps because people there feel more concerned about losing everything if banks fail than their counterparts in wealthy countries where there is a stronger financial and health safety net.
劍橋大學(xué)的研究報(bào)告發(fā)表在《全球化和健康》(Globalisation and Health)雜志上。
The Cambridge report is published in the journal Globalisation and Health