如果放在其它時(shí)候，美聯(lián)儲(Fed)前主席艾倫o格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)日前的言論可能會撼動市場：推動當(dāng)前全球流動性急劇增長的發(fā)展中國家儲蓄流"已過去一半"，而且是"一次性現(xiàn)象 "。
In other times, yesterday's comments by Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, would have shaken markets: the flow of savings from developing countries which had fuelled the current global liquidity boom was "about halfway through" and a "one-shot thing".
但市場幾乎沒有受到震動，因?yàn)榉e極的并購活動和一些強(qiáng)勁的收益數(shù)據(jù)，抵消了格林斯潘悲觀看法的影響。
But yesterday the markets barely trembled, as positive mergers-and-acquisitions activity and some strong earnings figures more than outweighed Mr Greenspan's gloomier outlook.
"當(dāng)你不再是貨幣政策負(fù)責(zé)人時(shí)，就失去了80%的市場關(guān)聯(lián)度，"RBS Greenwich Capital策略師戴維o阿德(David Ader)表示。"人們已經(jīng)不怎么把格林斯潘視作市場預(yù)言者了。"
"When you are no longer the head of monetary policy, 80 per cent of its market relevance has gone," said David Ader, a strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "Greenspan is of marginal interest as a prognosticator now."
自去年2月從美聯(lián)儲退休以后，81歲的格林斯潘已經(jīng)從滔滔不絕的關(guān)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的演講中賺了數(shù)百萬美元。這是一份收入不菲、但有時(shí)也會引起爭議的職業(yè)。
Mr Greenspan, 81, has made millions since retiring from the US central bank in February last year, holding forth on global economics in a lucrative, sometimes controversial speaking career.
在18年的美聯(lián)儲主席任期結(jié)束時(shí)，格林斯潘的年收入為18.01萬美元。如今，一場演講他就可以要價(jià)15萬美元，而自卸任以來，他已經(jīng)亮相了數(shù)十次。他還能從著書立傳中獲取收益--據(jù)信，一本即將面市的關(guān)于他在美聯(lián)儲生涯的著作，就讓他收到超過800萬美元的訂金。
The former Fed chief made $180,100 a year at the end of his 18-year tenure. Now he can command $150,000 (?09,000, ￡73,000) for a single speech - and he has made dozens of appearances since leaving office. He is reaping profits from the written word as well, receiving an advance believed to be more than $8m for a forthcoming book about his experiences at the Fed.
自美聯(lián)儲前主席保羅o沃克爾(Paul Volcker)于1987年卸任并投身投行業(yè)務(wù)以來，演講在美國已成為一樁大生意。隨著會議業(yè)的發(fā)展并轉(zhuǎn)向高端市場，加之美國禁止在職官員收取演講費(fèi)，離職官員可以賺個(gè)盆滿缽滿。
Public speaking has become a huge business in the US since the previous Fed chairman, Paul Volcker, left office in 1987 and went into investment banking. With the growth and shift upmarket of the conference business, and a ban on current office-holders taking speaking fees, former officials can make a mint.
美國前總統(tǒng)羅納德o里根(Ronald Reagan)和老喬治o布什(George Bush)都借此大撈了一筆，比爾o克林頓(Bill Clinton)更是目前演講人圈子里賺錢能力的典范。即便是知名記者，一場演講也能賺上5萬美元或是更多。
Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush senior cashed in, and Bill Clinton is the current prime example of earning power on the speaker circuit. Even well- regarded journalists can and do pull in as much as $50,000 or more each time.
出場費(fèi)為6位數(shù)的演講明星包括科林o鮑威爾(Colin Powell)和魯?shù)蟧朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani，直至他放棄演講，將精力集中在總統(tǒng)競選上），當(dāng)然還有格林斯潘。
The six-figure A-list stars include people such as Colin Powell and, until he pulled back to concentrate on his presidential campaign, Rudy Giuliani - and, of course, Mr Greenspan.
"在他說話時(shí)，你甚至能聽見一根針掉在地上的聲音，"最近聽過格林斯潘演講的數(shù)十位首席執(zhí)行官中的一人表示。"每個(gè)人都很專心，還會做筆記。他仍然很重要。"
"When he talks, you can hear a pin drop," said one member of a recent audience that included dozens of chief executives. "Everybody pays attention and takes notes. He still matters."
卸任后沒有幾天，格林斯潘就在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)組織的對沖基金經(jīng)理私下聚會上發(fā)表了演講。從泄漏出來的關(guān)于他這次講話的報(bào)告中，人們感到美國可能會加息。在離開美聯(lián)儲后不久、繼任者本o伯南克(Ben Bernanke)還沒有建立威信之前，格林斯潘就開始談?wù)撁绹?jīng)濟(jì)，這種做法令人皺眉，但他沒有違反任何規(guī)定。
Within days of leaving office, the former Fed chief spoke to a private gathering of hedge-fund managers, organised by Lehman Brothers. Leaked reports of his remarks were taken to mean that interest rates might go up. Talking about the US economy so soon after leaving the central bank, and before his successor, Ben Bernanke, had established himself, raised eyebrows, but he breached no rules in doing so.
透過他的辦公室，格林斯潘拒絕對本文置評。即便是現(xiàn)在，在離開美聯(lián)儲一年多之后，格林斯潘仍能找到一批熱心的聽眾。上月，就有人把南非蘭特的下跌，歸咎于他關(guān)于資本市場低估了新興市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成本的講話。
Through his office, Mr Greenspan declined to comment for this article. Even now, over a year after leaving the Fed, his comments have found an eager audience. Last month he was blamed for a drop in the value of the South African rand after commenting that capital markets were underestimating the cost of risk in emerging markets.
今年5月，他在馬德里的一個(gè)電話會議上發(fā)布了中國股市過熱的警告，間接引發(fā)在海外上市的中國股票下跌8%，甚至還影響到美國股市。
His warning in May - via teleconference to a meeting in Madrid - that Chinese stock markets were overheating helped trigger an 8 per cent drop in the price of foreign-held shares in the country's companies, and even dented US markets.
格林斯潘言論的影響在2月底體現(xiàn)得更明顯。當(dāng)時(shí)，他關(guān)于美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能衰退的言論，導(dǎo)致了始于中國的全球股市暴跌，在短短4天內(nèi)，美國股市年內(nèi)的漲幅就喪失殆盡。
The effect was even clearer at the end of February when his comments about the possibility of a US recession contributed to a sharp stock market sell-off that began in China but saw the year's gains in US markets wiped out in four days.
這次震蕩中，伯南克的講話穩(wěn)定了市場，顯示他已贏得信任--盡管是以一種更為"凝聚共識"的風(fēng)格。
Mr Bernanke's words steadied markets during that turmoil, suggesting he has won credibility - albeit with a more consensual style.
此外，這位現(xiàn)任美聯(lián)儲主席對經(jīng)濟(jì)前景相對樂觀的看法，似乎開始占上風(fēng)。他似乎傾向于認(rèn)為，投資者如此認(rèn)真地對待格林斯潘的言論，不能怪這位前任。
Moreover the current Fed chairman's comparatively benign view of the economic outlook seems to be in the ascendant. He appears inclined to think it is not his predecessor's fault that investors take his comments so seriously.
不過，英國央行(Bank of England)行長默文o金(Mervyn King)5月份幾乎毫不掩飾地對格林斯潘提出了批評。他表示，自己的前任"沒有老是在報(bào)紙和電臺上對貨幣政策委員會的工作進(jìn)行評論"，他對此深表感激。
However, Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, issued a thinly veiled criticism of the former Fed chairman in May, saying he was grateful his own predecessor had not "been in the newspapers and on the radio all the time, commenting on what the monetary policy committee is doing".
自離開美聯(lián)儲以來，格林斯潘的講話內(nèi)容變得明確了很多，一反在任時(shí)常見的令人費(fèi)解和迷惑的措詞風(fēng)格。
Since he left the US central bank, Mr Greenspan's remarks have become much more definitive - in contrast to his often convoluted and confusing phraseology while in office.
他今年在接受一次采訪時(shí)表示，采用這種模糊的措詞風(fēng)格，是為了避免在國會作證期間遇到敏感問題。當(dāng)各家報(bào)紙對他的言論做出相反的解讀時(shí)，他說道："我成功了。"
That style of obfuscation was developed, he said in an interview this year, to avoid sensitive questions during congressional testimony. When different newspapers reported his remarks with opposite interpretations, he said: "I'd succeeded."
In other times, yesterday's comments by Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, would have shaken markets: the flow of savings from developing countries which had fuelled the current global liquidity boom was "about halfway through" and a "one-shot thing".
但市場幾乎沒有受到震動，因?yàn)榉e極的并購活動和一些強(qiáng)勁的收益數(shù)據(jù)，抵消了格林斯潘悲觀看法的影響。
But yesterday the markets barely trembled, as positive mergers-and-acquisitions activity and some strong earnings figures more than outweighed Mr Greenspan's gloomier outlook.
"當(dāng)你不再是貨幣政策負(fù)責(zé)人時(shí)，就失去了80%的市場關(guān)聯(lián)度，"RBS Greenwich Capital策略師戴維o阿德(David Ader)表示。"人們已經(jīng)不怎么把格林斯潘視作市場預(yù)言者了。"
"When you are no longer the head of monetary policy, 80 per cent of its market relevance has gone," said David Ader, a strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. "Greenspan is of marginal interest as a prognosticator now."
自去年2月從美聯(lián)儲退休以后，81歲的格林斯潘已經(jīng)從滔滔不絕的關(guān)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的演講中賺了數(shù)百萬美元。這是一份收入不菲、但有時(shí)也會引起爭議的職業(yè)。
Mr Greenspan, 81, has made millions since retiring from the US central bank in February last year, holding forth on global economics in a lucrative, sometimes controversial speaking career.
在18年的美聯(lián)儲主席任期結(jié)束時(shí)，格林斯潘的年收入為18.01萬美元。如今，一場演講他就可以要價(jià)15萬美元，而自卸任以來，他已經(jīng)亮相了數(shù)十次。他還能從著書立傳中獲取收益--據(jù)信，一本即將面市的關(guān)于他在美聯(lián)儲生涯的著作，就讓他收到超過800萬美元的訂金。
The former Fed chief made $180,100 a year at the end of his 18-year tenure. Now he can command $150,000 (?09,000, ￡73,000) for a single speech - and he has made dozens of appearances since leaving office. He is reaping profits from the written word as well, receiving an advance believed to be more than $8m for a forthcoming book about his experiences at the Fed.
自美聯(lián)儲前主席保羅o沃克爾(Paul Volcker)于1987年卸任并投身投行業(yè)務(wù)以來，演講在美國已成為一樁大生意。隨著會議業(yè)的發(fā)展并轉(zhuǎn)向高端市場，加之美國禁止在職官員收取演講費(fèi)，離職官員可以賺個(gè)盆滿缽滿。
Public speaking has become a huge business in the US since the previous Fed chairman, Paul Volcker, left office in 1987 and went into investment banking. With the growth and shift upmarket of the conference business, and a ban on current office-holders taking speaking fees, former officials can make a mint.
美國前總統(tǒng)羅納德o里根(Ronald Reagan)和老喬治o布什(George Bush)都借此大撈了一筆，比爾o克林頓(Bill Clinton)更是目前演講人圈子里賺錢能力的典范。即便是知名記者，一場演講也能賺上5萬美元或是更多。
Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush senior cashed in, and Bill Clinton is the current prime example of earning power on the speaker circuit. Even well- regarded journalists can and do pull in as much as $50,000 or more each time.
出場費(fèi)為6位數(shù)的演講明星包括科林o鮑威爾(Colin Powell)和魯?shù)蟧朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani，直至他放棄演講，將精力集中在總統(tǒng)競選上），當(dāng)然還有格林斯潘。
The six-figure A-list stars include people such as Colin Powell and, until he pulled back to concentrate on his presidential campaign, Rudy Giuliani - and, of course, Mr Greenspan.
"在他說話時(shí)，你甚至能聽見一根針掉在地上的聲音，"最近聽過格林斯潘演講的數(shù)十位首席執(zhí)行官中的一人表示。"每個(gè)人都很專心，還會做筆記。他仍然很重要。"
"When he talks, you can hear a pin drop," said one member of a recent audience that included dozens of chief executives. "Everybody pays attention and takes notes. He still matters."
卸任后沒有幾天，格林斯潘就在雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)組織的對沖基金經(jīng)理私下聚會上發(fā)表了演講。從泄漏出來的關(guān)于他這次講話的報(bào)告中，人們感到美國可能會加息。在離開美聯(lián)儲后不久、繼任者本o伯南克(Ben Bernanke)還沒有建立威信之前，格林斯潘就開始談?wù)撁绹?jīng)濟(jì)，這種做法令人皺眉，但他沒有違反任何規(guī)定。
Within days of leaving office, the former Fed chief spoke to a private gathering of hedge-fund managers, organised by Lehman Brothers. Leaked reports of his remarks were taken to mean that interest rates might go up. Talking about the US economy so soon after leaving the central bank, and before his successor, Ben Bernanke, had established himself, raised eyebrows, but he breached no rules in doing so.
透過他的辦公室，格林斯潘拒絕對本文置評。即便是現(xiàn)在，在離開美聯(lián)儲一年多之后，格林斯潘仍能找到一批熱心的聽眾。上月，就有人把南非蘭特的下跌，歸咎于他關(guān)于資本市場低估了新興市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成本的講話。
Through his office, Mr Greenspan declined to comment for this article. Even now, over a year after leaving the Fed, his comments have found an eager audience. Last month he was blamed for a drop in the value of the South African rand after commenting that capital markets were underestimating the cost of risk in emerging markets.
今年5月，他在馬德里的一個(gè)電話會議上發(fā)布了中國股市過熱的警告，間接引發(fā)在海外上市的中國股票下跌8%，甚至還影響到美國股市。
His warning in May - via teleconference to a meeting in Madrid - that Chinese stock markets were overheating helped trigger an 8 per cent drop in the price of foreign-held shares in the country's companies, and even dented US markets.
格林斯潘言論的影響在2月底體現(xiàn)得更明顯。當(dāng)時(shí)，他關(guān)于美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能衰退的言論，導(dǎo)致了始于中國的全球股市暴跌，在短短4天內(nèi)，美國股市年內(nèi)的漲幅就喪失殆盡。
The effect was even clearer at the end of February when his comments about the possibility of a US recession contributed to a sharp stock market sell-off that began in China but saw the year's gains in US markets wiped out in four days.
這次震蕩中，伯南克的講話穩(wěn)定了市場，顯示他已贏得信任--盡管是以一種更為"凝聚共識"的風(fēng)格。
Mr Bernanke's words steadied markets during that turmoil, suggesting he has won credibility - albeit with a more consensual style.
此外，這位現(xiàn)任美聯(lián)儲主席對經(jīng)濟(jì)前景相對樂觀的看法，似乎開始占上風(fēng)。他似乎傾向于認(rèn)為，投資者如此認(rèn)真地對待格林斯潘的言論，不能怪這位前任。
Moreover the current Fed chairman's comparatively benign view of the economic outlook seems to be in the ascendant. He appears inclined to think it is not his predecessor's fault that investors take his comments so seriously.
不過，英國央行(Bank of England)行長默文o金(Mervyn King)5月份幾乎毫不掩飾地對格林斯潘提出了批評。他表示，自己的前任"沒有老是在報(bào)紙和電臺上對貨幣政策委員會的工作進(jìn)行評論"，他對此深表感激。
However, Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, issued a thinly veiled criticism of the former Fed chairman in May, saying he was grateful his own predecessor had not "been in the newspapers and on the radio all the time, commenting on what the monetary policy committee is doing".
自離開美聯(lián)儲以來，格林斯潘的講話內(nèi)容變得明確了很多，一反在任時(shí)常見的令人費(fèi)解和迷惑的措詞風(fēng)格。
Since he left the US central bank, Mr Greenspan's remarks have become much more definitive - in contrast to his often convoluted and confusing phraseology while in office.
他今年在接受一次采訪時(shí)表示，采用這種模糊的措詞風(fēng)格，是為了避免在國會作證期間遇到敏感問題。當(dāng)各家報(bào)紙對他的言論做出相反的解讀時(shí)，他說道："我成功了。"
That style of obfuscation was developed, he said in an interview this year, to avoid sensitive questions during congressional testimony. When different newspapers reported his remarks with opposite interpretations, he said: "I'd succeeded."