El Nino
While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance，the Columbia University researchers say their method call predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．That would be good news for governments，farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.
Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating back to1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures．The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature．
The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C．Weare．a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis，who was not involved in the work，said it“suggests‘E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”
“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method“makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data，which is only available for recent decades，Weare said．
The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacitic is of immense importance’．The 1997 El Nino，for example，caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide，offset by beneficial effects in other areas，said David Anderson，of the European Centre for Medium．Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England．The 1877 El Nino，meanwhile，coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China。prompting the development of seasonal forecasting，Anderson said．
When El Nino hit in 199 1 and 1997．200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone．according to a 2002 United Nations report．
While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky．the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed．
E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February．The warming tends to last between 9 and 1 2 months and occurs every two to seven years?
The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible．
E1 Nino n．厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象
Equatorial adj．赤道的
Occurrence n．發(fā)生
Meteorologist n．氣象學家
Offset v．抵銷
Lead adj．提前的
Monsoon n．季風
Tricky adj．難以捉摸的
練習：
1．The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict E1 Nino a few months in advance．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
2. The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past EI Nino occurrences and sea—surface temperatures．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
3. The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino occurrences．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
4. Weare’s contribution in predicting E1 Nino，was highly praised by other meteorologists．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
5. According to a Chinese report，the flooding in China caused by E1 Nino in 1 99 1 and 1 997 affected 200 million Chinese people．
A．right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
6. It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak．
A．right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
7. A special institute has been set up in America to study E1 Nino．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
參考答案：
El Nino （厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象）
1． B．分析：利用句子中的特征詞Columbia University researchers 和a few months in advance作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance，the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．（問題句說“提前幾個月”，而原文說“最遠能提前到兩年”，因此可見問題句的內容中有與原文不一致的地方，因此判斷該句“不正確”。）
2．A．分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的核心結構EI Nino occurrences 和 sea—surface temperatures作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 （該劃線結構的含義基本上與問題句的內容一致，還需要辨別the researchers是否就是“The Columbia University researchers”，而前文中出現(xiàn)的就是“The Columbia University researchers”，問題句的內容都在原文中有呼應的內容，因此判斷該句的說法正確。）
3．C．分析：該題涉及到的內容和前面出現(xiàn)的問題有關，注意到題干中出現(xiàn)的特征詞（the first），因此判斷對該詞的確認是關鍵。利用該詞作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)文章中沒有這個詞出現(xiàn)。因為該句是概括總結句，因此再利用句子出現(xiàn)的核心結構sea-surface temperatures 和the past EI Nino occurrences作為答案線索，發(fā)現(xiàn)涉及這兩個結構的句子所表達的句意都與問題句的內容無關，因此判斷問題句的說法“沒提到”。
4． C． 分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的特征詞Weare作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：but Bryan C．Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis，who was not involved in the work，said it“suggests‘E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”
“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method“makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data，which is only available for recent decades，Weare said．(這些涉及到Weare的句子在內容上都沒有講述是否Weare在預測厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象方面作出了貢獻，也沒有提到他的貢獻是否得到了其他氣象學家的高度贊揚)
5．B．分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的特征詞Chinese report， in 1 99 1 and 1 997和200 million Chinese people作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：When El Nino hit in 199 1 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report．（該句的內容與問題句的內容不一致。）
6． A． 分析：該問題句內容和結構都較簡單，句子中出現(xiàn)了一個數(shù)字（8個月），因此猜測對于這個數(shù)字的辨別是解題的關鍵。借助eight months 和句子中的核心詞peak作為答案線索，這樣找到答案相關句： E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February（借助該句含義可以推出“El Nino需要大約8個月達到峰值”）
7． C．分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的核心詞A special institute 和 America作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)文章中根本就沒有提到“在美國建立一所特別的研究院”，因此該句為“沒提到”。
While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance，the Columbia University researchers say their method call predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．That would be good news for governments，farmers and others seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that El Nino can produce in various parts of the world.
Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating back to1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures．The results were reported in the latest issue of the journal Nature．
The researchers say their method is not perfect, but Bryan C．Weare．a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis，who was not involved in the work，said it“suggests‘E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”
“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method“makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data，which is only available for recent decades，Weare said．
The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the Pacitic is of immense importance’．The 1997 El Nino，for example，caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide，offset by beneficial effects in other areas，said David Anderson，of the European Centre for Medium．Range Weather Forecasts in Reading England．The 1877 El Nino，meanwhile，coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China。prompting the development of seasonal forecasting，Anderson said．
When El Nino hit in 199 1 and 1997．200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone．according to a 2002 United Nations report．
While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky．the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to at least a year if the new method is confirmed．
E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February．The warming tends to last between 9 and 1 2 months and occurs every two to seven years?
The new forecasting method does not predict any major El Nino events in the next two years, although a weak warming toward the end of this year is possible．
E1 Nino n．厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象
Equatorial adj．赤道的
Occurrence n．發(fā)生
Meteorologist n．氣象學家
Offset v．抵銷
Lead adj．提前的
Monsoon n．季風
Tricky adj．難以捉摸的
練習：
1．The method used by the Columbia University researchers can predict E1 Nino a few months in advance．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
2. The Columbia University researchers studied the relationship between the past EI Nino occurrences and sea—surface temperatures．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
3. The Columbia University researchers are the first to use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino occurrences．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
4. Weare’s contribution in predicting E1 Nino，was highly praised by other meteorologists．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
5. According to a Chinese report，the flooding in China caused by E1 Nino in 1 99 1 and 1 997 affected 200 million Chinese people．
A．right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
6. It takes about eight months for El Nino to reach its peak．
A．right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
7. A special institute has been set up in America to study E1 Nino．
A．Right B．Wrong C．Not mentioned
參考答案：
El Nino （厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象）
1． B．分析：利用句子中的特征詞Columbia University researchers 和a few months in advance作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance，the Columbia University researchers say their method can predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance．（問題句說“提前幾個月”，而原文說“最遠能提前到兩年”，因此可見問題句的內容中有與原文不一致的地方，因此判斷該句“不正確”。）
2．A．分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的核心結構EI Nino occurrences 和 sea—surface temperatures作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：Using a computer the researchers matched sea-surface temperatures to later El Nino occurrences between 1980 and 2000 （該劃線結構的含義基本上與問題句的內容一致，還需要辨別the researchers是否就是“The Columbia University researchers”，而前文中出現(xiàn)的就是“The Columbia University researchers”，問題句的內容都在原文中有呼應的內容，因此判斷該句的說法正確。）
3．C．分析：該題涉及到的內容和前面出現(xiàn)的問題有關，注意到題干中出現(xiàn)的特征詞（the first），因此判斷對該詞的確認是關鍵。利用該詞作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)文章中沒有這個詞出現(xiàn)。因為該句是概括總結句，因此再利用句子出現(xiàn)的核心結構sea-surface temperatures 和the past EI Nino occurrences作為答案線索，發(fā)現(xiàn)涉及這兩個結構的句子所表達的句意都與問題句的內容無關，因此判斷問題句的說法“沒提到”。
4． C． 分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的特征詞Weare作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：but Bryan C．Weare, a meteorologist at the University of California, Davis，who was not involved in the work，said it“suggests‘E1 Nino is indeed predictable．”
“This will probably convince others to search around more for even better methods．”said Weare．He added that the new method“makes it possible to predict El Nino at 1ong lead times．” Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but they have not looked as far back because they need other data，which is only available for recent decades，Weare said．(這些涉及到Weare的句子在內容上都沒有講述是否Weare在預測厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象方面作出了貢獻，也沒有提到他的貢獻是否得到了其他氣象學家的高度贊揚)
5．B．分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的特征詞Chinese report， in 1 99 1 and 1 997和200 million Chinese people作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)答案相關句：When El Nino hit in 199 1 and 1997, 200 million people were affected by flooding in China alone, according to a 2002 United Nations report．（該句的內容與問題句的內容不一致。）
6． A． 分析：該問題句內容和結構都較簡單，句子中出現(xiàn)了一個數(shù)字（8個月），因此猜測對于這個數(shù)字的辨別是解題的關鍵。借助eight months 和句子中的核心詞peak作為答案線索，這樣找到答案相關句： E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and reaches its peak between December and February（借助該句含義可以推出“El Nino需要大約8個月達到峰值”）
7． C．分析：利用句子中出現(xiàn)的核心詞A special institute 和 America作為答案線索，這樣發(fā)現(xiàn)文章中根本就沒有提到“在美國建立一所特別的研究院”，因此該句為“沒提到”。