Japan’s population is in decline． As of last October 1st, the government announced last week, giving the results of its latest five-yearly census, Japan’s 127m-odd population was 19,000 fewer than a year earlier． Deaths had outstripped births for the first time in a period of peace since records have been kept． A falling population, the Yomiuri Shimbun duly wailed, meant that national survival was at stake． It may have a point:with no change in the current fertifity rate--below 1．3 children per woman of child-bearing age--the last Japanese will die as soon as 2800．
Such are the perils of extrapolation． The more immediate demographic issue, though, is not so much the predicted fall in Japan’s population, to as low as 100m in 2050, some say, but rather a shift in its composition． For as well as a low birth rate, life expectancy continues to lengthen (if that were not so, Japan’s population would have started to fall some time ago)．
Japan is greying at an unprecedented rate． Half a century ago, the proportion of the population over65 stood at around 5%, well below that in America, Britain, France or Germany． Today, Japan’ s proportion of elderly, at 19%, is the highest in the world, and is forecast to reach almost 30% by 2025． In particular, an exceptionally large group of Japanese, the baby-boom generation, is making its way towards retirement． After the second world war, returning Japanese soldiers married, settled down and produced children in large numbers． Between 1947 and 1949, an average of 2．7m children were born a year (with another 2．3m in 1950)． That was 30-400%more than in the succeeding years． It made for a more defined population pyramid than, say, America, where the baby-boomers were born ovfr several more years． Today, the country’s demographic profile looks something like a Japanese lantern． Soon, it will look more like a narrow-based urn (see chart)．
From next year, the baby-boomers start to retire (60 being the minimum mandatory retirement age for now)． The prospect is causing some anguish among policymakers． As youngsters, these people were the shock troops during the golden period of Japan’s post-war economic transformation． Today, they are the custodians of years of accumulated technical and management skills． Their absence, some suggest, will lead to a shortage of skilled workers and mentors, a loss of productivity and even a surplus of office space． [398 words]
1． Japans population is in decline chiefly because______
A． there is no change in the current fertility rate
B． its birth rate has become lower than death rate
C． its population was fewer than before
D． the last Japanese will die sooner or later
2． According to the author, the real population problem in Japan is______
A． the rapid-falling population
B． the predicted national survival crisis
C． the change of demographic composition
D． the obvious lengthened life expectancy
3． In America, the baby-boomers______
A． have all retired
B． also cause anguish among policymakers
C． were born mainly between 1947and 1949
D． were born even several years after 1949
4． The potential shift of Japan’s demographic profile from a lantern to an urn shows that______
A． the future of Japan is not so bright
B． the era of pyramid can never return
C． the younger population will be in decline
D． the proportion of elderly will become lower
5． It can be inferred from the text that______
A． the golden age of Japan has become history
B． the baby-boomers are reluctant to retire
C． few policymakers are baby-boomers
D． there has been a loss of productivity 難句透析
①As of last October 1st，the government announced last week，giving the results of its latest five-yearly census， Japan’S 127m—odd population was l9000 fewer than a year earlier．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】其中，“as of”的意思是“自…起(=as from)”。
【釋義】政府上周宣布，根據(jù)最近的5年年度人口普查資料，到去年10月1日，日本人口為1億2700多萬(wàn)，比一年前減少了19000人。
②A falling population，the Yomiuri Shimbun duly wailed，meant[that national survival was at stake]．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】其中，“the Yomiuri Shimbun duly wailed”是插入語(yǔ)。方括號(hào)所標(biāo)示的部分是“meant”的賓語(yǔ)從句。
【釋義】《讀賣新聞》評(píng)論說(shuō)，人口減少意味著民族生存面臨危險(xiǎn)。
③The more immediate demographic issue，though，is not SO much the predicted fall in Japan’S population，to as low as 100m in 2050，some say，but rather a shift in its composition．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】句中“not SO much…，but rather…”的意思是“與其說(shuō)…，倒不如說(shuō)…”。
【釋義】不過(guò)，人口統(tǒng)計(jì)上最緊迫的問(wèn)題與其說(shuō)是日本人口預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少，有人說(shuō)，到2050年會(huì)減少到一億人，倒不如說(shuō)是其人口構(gòu)成的變化。
④It made for a more defined population pyramid than，say，America，[where the baby—boomers were born over several more years]．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】代詞“it”指前一句話的意思?！癿ake for”的意思是“導(dǎo)致，造成”。方括號(hào)所標(biāo)示的后置定語(yǔ)從句修飾“A— merica”。
【釋義】這使得人口的金字塔形狀要比，例如，美國(guó)，更清晰。在美國(guó)，嬰兒高峰期持續(xù)的年頭更多一些。
⑤Today，the country’S demographic profile looks something like a Japanese lantern．Soon，it will look more like a narrow—based urn(see chart)．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】代詞“it”指“demographic profile”。
【釋義】如今，日本的人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)圖形的輪廓看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)像個(gè)日本燈籠。很快，就會(huì)像一個(gè)窄底座的甕了。
全文翻譯
日本的人口正在減少。政府上周宣布，根據(jù)最近5年的年度人口普查資料，到去年10月1日，日本人口為1億2700多萬(wàn)，比一年前減少了19000人。這是自有記錄可尋的歷史以來(lái)，死亡率首次在和平時(shí)期超過(guò)了出生率。《讀賣新聞》評(píng)論說(shuō)，人口減少意味著民族生存面臨危險(xiǎn)。它的話不無(wú)道理：如果不對(duì)現(xiàn)有生殖狀況——即育齡婦女人均生育少于1．3個(gè)孩子——做出改變的話，那么世界上最后一個(gè)日本人將在2800年死去。
這就是根據(jù)推斷而得出的未來(lái)的悲慘境況。不過(guò)，人口統(tǒng)計(jì)上最緊迫的問(wèn)題與其說(shuō)是日本人口預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少，有人說(shuō)，到2050年會(huì)減少到一億人，倒不如說(shuō)是其人口構(gòu)成的變化。正如同其生育率低下的持續(xù)，其人均壽命則不斷增長(zhǎng)(如果不是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)，日本早些年就應(yīng)該已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)人口負(fù)增長(zhǎng)了)。
日本的人口結(jié)構(gòu)正以前所未有的速度老化。半個(gè)世紀(jì)之前，它的65歲以上人口只占人口總數(shù)的5％，比當(dāng)時(shí)的美國(guó)、英國(guó)、法國(guó)和德國(guó)都要低。但今天，日本的老齡人口比例已經(jīng)達(dá)到了19％，為世界首位，并且預(yù)計(jì)到2025年這個(gè)比值會(huì)高達(dá)30％。特別是，在日本有一個(gè)特殊的群體，即兒童高生育時(shí)代的那一代人，現(xiàn)在都差不多到了該退休的年齡了。二戰(zhàn)之后，大批的日本軍人結(jié)婚、成家并生育孩子。在1947年至1949年之間，平均每年有270萬(wàn)兒童降生(而光1950年就又有230萬(wàn)兒童出生)。這幾年的出生率都比后續(xù)的幾年高出30一40％。這使得人口的金字塔形狀要比，例如，美國(guó)，更清晰。在美國(guó)，嬰兒高峰期持續(xù)的年頭更多一些。如今，日本的人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)圖形的輪廓看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)像個(gè)日本燈籠。很快，就會(huì)像一個(gè)窄底座的甕了(參看下圖)。
從明年開始高生育時(shí)代出生的人們就要開始退休了(60歲是目前政府規(guī)定的強(qiáng)制退休最小年齡底限)。這所帶來(lái)的前景使得目前的政策制定者們憂心忡忡。這批人年輕時(shí)，正好充當(dāng)了日本戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展黃金時(shí)期的先鋒隊(duì)。如今，他們又身懷多年積累的技術(shù)與管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)。他們的離開，不僅將造成熟練技術(shù)工人和指導(dǎo)者的缺失，同時(shí)也導(dǎo)致了生產(chǎn)力的流失，還造成了公司職位的過(guò)剩。
超綱詞匯
at stake瀕臨危險(xiǎn)，得失攸關(guān)
custodian n．管理員，保管人，看守人
duly adv．適當(dāng)，合適，適度，當(dāng)然，及時(shí)
extrap01ation n．外推法，歸納，推論
mandatory adj．命令的，強(qiáng)制的
mentor n．導(dǎo)師，指導(dǎo)者
outstrip v．超過(guò)
peril n．危險(xiǎn)
unprecedentcd adj．空前的，沒(méi)有前例的
urn n．缸，甕，茶水壺
wail vi．／vt．哭訴，嗚咽，悲嘆
參考答案：1．B 2．C 3．D 4．C 5．A
Such are the perils of extrapolation． The more immediate demographic issue, though, is not so much the predicted fall in Japan’s population, to as low as 100m in 2050, some say, but rather a shift in its composition． For as well as a low birth rate, life expectancy continues to lengthen (if that were not so, Japan’s population would have started to fall some time ago)．
Japan is greying at an unprecedented rate． Half a century ago, the proportion of the population over65 stood at around 5%, well below that in America, Britain, France or Germany． Today, Japan’ s proportion of elderly, at 19%, is the highest in the world, and is forecast to reach almost 30% by 2025． In particular, an exceptionally large group of Japanese, the baby-boom generation, is making its way towards retirement． After the second world war, returning Japanese soldiers married, settled down and produced children in large numbers． Between 1947 and 1949, an average of 2．7m children were born a year (with another 2．3m in 1950)． That was 30-400%more than in the succeeding years． It made for a more defined population pyramid than, say, America, where the baby-boomers were born ovfr several more years． Today, the country’s demographic profile looks something like a Japanese lantern． Soon, it will look more like a narrow-based urn (see chart)．
From next year, the baby-boomers start to retire (60 being the minimum mandatory retirement age for now)． The prospect is causing some anguish among policymakers． As youngsters, these people were the shock troops during the golden period of Japan’s post-war economic transformation． Today, they are the custodians of years of accumulated technical and management skills． Their absence, some suggest, will lead to a shortage of skilled workers and mentors, a loss of productivity and even a surplus of office space． [398 words]
1． Japans population is in decline chiefly because______
A． there is no change in the current fertility rate
B． its birth rate has become lower than death rate
C． its population was fewer than before
D． the last Japanese will die sooner or later
2． According to the author, the real population problem in Japan is______
A． the rapid-falling population
B． the predicted national survival crisis
C． the change of demographic composition
D． the obvious lengthened life expectancy
3． In America, the baby-boomers______
A． have all retired
B． also cause anguish among policymakers
C． were born mainly between 1947and 1949
D． were born even several years after 1949
4． The potential shift of Japan’s demographic profile from a lantern to an urn shows that______
A． the future of Japan is not so bright
B． the era of pyramid can never return
C． the younger population will be in decline
D． the proportion of elderly will become lower
5． It can be inferred from the text that______
A． the golden age of Japan has become history
B． the baby-boomers are reluctant to retire
C． few policymakers are baby-boomers
D． there has been a loss of productivity 難句透析
①As of last October 1st，the government announced last week，giving the results of its latest five-yearly census， Japan’S 127m—odd population was l9000 fewer than a year earlier．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】其中，“as of”的意思是“自…起(=as from)”。
【釋義】政府上周宣布，根據(jù)最近的5年年度人口普查資料，到去年10月1日，日本人口為1億2700多萬(wàn)，比一年前減少了19000人。
②A falling population，the Yomiuri Shimbun duly wailed，meant[that national survival was at stake]．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】其中，“the Yomiuri Shimbun duly wailed”是插入語(yǔ)。方括號(hào)所標(biāo)示的部分是“meant”的賓語(yǔ)從句。
【釋義】《讀賣新聞》評(píng)論說(shuō)，人口減少意味著民族生存面臨危險(xiǎn)。
③The more immediate demographic issue，though，is not SO much the predicted fall in Japan’S population，to as low as 100m in 2050，some say，but rather a shift in its composition．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】句中“not SO much…，but rather…”的意思是“與其說(shuō)…，倒不如說(shuō)…”。
【釋義】不過(guò)，人口統(tǒng)計(jì)上最緊迫的問(wèn)題與其說(shuō)是日本人口預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少，有人說(shuō)，到2050年會(huì)減少到一億人，倒不如說(shuō)是其人口構(gòu)成的變化。
④It made for a more defined population pyramid than，say，America，[where the baby—boomers were born over several more years]．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】代詞“it”指前一句話的意思?！癿ake for”的意思是“導(dǎo)致，造成”。方括號(hào)所標(biāo)示的后置定語(yǔ)從句修飾“A— merica”。
【釋義】這使得人口的金字塔形狀要比，例如，美國(guó)，更清晰。在美國(guó)，嬰兒高峰期持續(xù)的年頭更多一些。
⑤Today，the country’S demographic profile looks something like a Japanese lantern．Soon，it will look more like a narrow—based urn(see chart)．
【結(jié)構(gòu)】代詞“it”指“demographic profile”。
【釋義】如今，日本的人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)圖形的輪廓看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)像個(gè)日本燈籠。很快，就會(huì)像一個(gè)窄底座的甕了。
全文翻譯
日本的人口正在減少。政府上周宣布，根據(jù)最近5年的年度人口普查資料，到去年10月1日，日本人口為1億2700多萬(wàn)，比一年前減少了19000人。這是自有記錄可尋的歷史以來(lái)，死亡率首次在和平時(shí)期超過(guò)了出生率。《讀賣新聞》評(píng)論說(shuō)，人口減少意味著民族生存面臨危險(xiǎn)。它的話不無(wú)道理：如果不對(duì)現(xiàn)有生殖狀況——即育齡婦女人均生育少于1．3個(gè)孩子——做出改變的話，那么世界上最后一個(gè)日本人將在2800年死去。
這就是根據(jù)推斷而得出的未來(lái)的悲慘境況。不過(guò)，人口統(tǒng)計(jì)上最緊迫的問(wèn)題與其說(shuō)是日本人口預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)減少，有人說(shuō)，到2050年會(huì)減少到一億人，倒不如說(shuō)是其人口構(gòu)成的變化。正如同其生育率低下的持續(xù)，其人均壽命則不斷增長(zhǎng)(如果不是因?yàn)檫@個(gè)，日本早些年就應(yīng)該已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)人口負(fù)增長(zhǎng)了)。
日本的人口結(jié)構(gòu)正以前所未有的速度老化。半個(gè)世紀(jì)之前，它的65歲以上人口只占人口總數(shù)的5％，比當(dāng)時(shí)的美國(guó)、英國(guó)、法國(guó)和德國(guó)都要低。但今天，日本的老齡人口比例已經(jīng)達(dá)到了19％，為世界首位，并且預(yù)計(jì)到2025年這個(gè)比值會(huì)高達(dá)30％。特別是，在日本有一個(gè)特殊的群體，即兒童高生育時(shí)代的那一代人，現(xiàn)在都差不多到了該退休的年齡了。二戰(zhàn)之后，大批的日本軍人結(jié)婚、成家并生育孩子。在1947年至1949年之間，平均每年有270萬(wàn)兒童降生(而光1950年就又有230萬(wàn)兒童出生)。這幾年的出生率都比后續(xù)的幾年高出30一40％。這使得人口的金字塔形狀要比，例如，美國(guó)，更清晰。在美國(guó)，嬰兒高峰期持續(xù)的年頭更多一些。如今，日本的人口統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)圖形的輪廓看起來(lái)有點(diǎn)像個(gè)日本燈籠。很快，就會(huì)像一個(gè)窄底座的甕了(參看下圖)。
從明年開始高生育時(shí)代出生的人們就要開始退休了(60歲是目前政府規(guī)定的強(qiáng)制退休最小年齡底限)。這所帶來(lái)的前景使得目前的政策制定者們憂心忡忡。這批人年輕時(shí)，正好充當(dāng)了日本戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展黃金時(shí)期的先鋒隊(duì)。如今，他們又身懷多年積累的技術(shù)與管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)。他們的離開，不僅將造成熟練技術(shù)工人和指導(dǎo)者的缺失，同時(shí)也導(dǎo)致了生產(chǎn)力的流失，還造成了公司職位的過(guò)剩。
超綱詞匯
at stake瀕臨危險(xiǎn)，得失攸關(guān)
custodian n．管理員，保管人，看守人
duly adv．適當(dāng)，合適，適度，當(dāng)然，及時(shí)
extrap01ation n．外推法，歸納，推論
mandatory adj．命令的，強(qiáng)制的
mentor n．導(dǎo)師，指導(dǎo)者
outstrip v．超過(guò)
peril n．危險(xiǎn)
unprecedentcd adj．空前的，沒(méi)有前例的
urn n．缸，甕，茶水壺
wail vi．／vt．哭訴，嗚咽，悲嘆
參考答案：1．B 2．C 3．D 4．C 5．A