CES Economist: Gadgets Are Necessities Now
Yes, this may be the worst recession America has seen since World War II. But the people who are bring us the Consumer Electronics Show would like to point out that sales of tech products are actually faring pretty well when compared to what happened during previous recessions.
The evidence suggest that people's views on devices such as televisions, notebooks computers and mobile phones are changing, says Shawn DuBravac, economist for the Consumer Electronics Association. Through November of 2008, 17.22% of total durable good purchases were tech goods, the highest share in 50 years, he says.
'While these are typically discretionary purchases, consumers are treating them like non discretionary purchases,' says Mr. DuBravac.
That doesn't mean that consumers aren't making cutbacks. In fact, in many categories consumers seem to be gravitating towards lower-priced items for varying reasons. For example, coming out of the 2007 holiday season, nearly 50% of all flat panel sales were over 40 inches. Today, Mr. DuBravac says that numbers stands closer to 35%.
The popularity of so-called 'netbooks,' a new kind of lower priced laptop, may be another example-with some consumers perhaps waiting a little longer to replace the fully featured notebook PC they already own, and buying something cheaper to tide them over. Low-priced camcorders that store images on chips called flash memory are also a hot category, pegged to grow units more than double in 2009.
On the other hand, penetration of digital still cameras is at an all-time high of 77% of U.S. households. Consequently, Mr. DuBravac predicts that low-end models will see steep revenue declines in 2009.
Mobile phones also have a penetration problem, with 90% of U.S. households owning one. That's partly why CEA expects sales of all mobile phones units to decline 5% in 2009, though unit shipments of high-end smartphones are expected to increase by 31% in 2009.
In any case, Mr. DuBravac recommends that manufacturers figure out whether their consumers really want low-end products that do one thing really well or higher-end products that come with lots of features. 'Really understanding why consumers gravitate towards one product category or another will be important in 2009,' he adds.
的確，或許這是美國二戰(zhàn)以來所經(jīng)歷的最嚴(yán)重衰退。但是為我們帶來這次北美消費(fèi)電子展的人將樂意告訴我們，實(shí)際上，科技產(chǎn)品目前的銷售跟以前的衰退期相比要好得多。
消費(fèi)電子協(xié)會(huì)(Consumer Electronics Association)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家杜布拉維克(Shawn DuBravac)說，有跡象顯示，人們對(duì)電視、筆記本電腦和移動(dòng)電話等電子設(shè)備的看法在改變。他說，整個(gè)2008年11月，耐用消費(fèi)品采購總額中科技類商品占17.22%，是50年來的比例。
杜布拉維克說，盡管這些產(chǎn)品通常屬于非必需品，但消費(fèi)者卻把它們看成必需品。
這并不意味著消費(fèi)者不會(huì)削減這方面的支出，實(shí)際上，在許多產(chǎn)品類別，投資者因?yàn)楦鞣N原因似乎正在轉(zhuǎn)向較低價(jià)格的產(chǎn)品。比如，2007年假日季節(jié)售出的平板電視接近50%在40英寸以上，而今天這個(gè)比例是接近35%。
被稱為“上網(wǎng)本”的新型低價(jià)筆記本電腦的流行或許是另一個(gè)例子，一些消費(fèi)者或許會(huì)等待更長時(shí)間再更換已有的功能完備的筆記本電腦，先買個(gè)便宜的電腦過渡一下。在閃存芯片上儲(chǔ)存圖像的便攜式攝像機(jī)中那些價(jià)格較低的型號(hào)也在熱銷，2009年的銷量有望增加兩倍。
另一方面，數(shù)碼相機(jī)在美國家庭的普及率達(dá)到了77%的歷史水平。因此，杜布拉維克預(yù)計(jì)，2009年低端型號(hào)的銷售收入將大幅下降。
由于90%的美國家庭擁有手機(jī)，手機(jī)產(chǎn)品也有一個(gè)如何實(shí)現(xiàn)市場滲透的問題。這是CEA預(yù)計(jì)2009年全部手機(jī)銷量將下降5%的部分原因。不過，預(yù)計(jì)2009年高端智能手機(jī)交貨量將增加31%。
不論怎樣，杜布拉維克建議制造商要考慮消費(fèi)者是真地希望購買突出某一方面功能的低端產(chǎn)品，還是具備多種功能的高端產(chǎn)品。他補(bǔ)充說，切實(shí)理解消費(fèi)者為什么偏好這樣或那樣的產(chǎn)品，這一點(diǎn)在2009年尤其重要。
Yes, this may be the worst recession America has seen since World War II. But the people who are bring us the Consumer Electronics Show would like to point out that sales of tech products are actually faring pretty well when compared to what happened during previous recessions.
The evidence suggest that people's views on devices such as televisions, notebooks computers and mobile phones are changing, says Shawn DuBravac, economist for the Consumer Electronics Association. Through November of 2008, 17.22% of total durable good purchases were tech goods, the highest share in 50 years, he says.
'While these are typically discretionary purchases, consumers are treating them like non discretionary purchases,' says Mr. DuBravac.
That doesn't mean that consumers aren't making cutbacks. In fact, in many categories consumers seem to be gravitating towards lower-priced items for varying reasons. For example, coming out of the 2007 holiday season, nearly 50% of all flat panel sales were over 40 inches. Today, Mr. DuBravac says that numbers stands closer to 35%.
The popularity of so-called 'netbooks,' a new kind of lower priced laptop, may be another example-with some consumers perhaps waiting a little longer to replace the fully featured notebook PC they already own, and buying something cheaper to tide them over. Low-priced camcorders that store images on chips called flash memory are also a hot category, pegged to grow units more than double in 2009.
On the other hand, penetration of digital still cameras is at an all-time high of 77% of U.S. households. Consequently, Mr. DuBravac predicts that low-end models will see steep revenue declines in 2009.
Mobile phones also have a penetration problem, with 90% of U.S. households owning one. That's partly why CEA expects sales of all mobile phones units to decline 5% in 2009, though unit shipments of high-end smartphones are expected to increase by 31% in 2009.
In any case, Mr. DuBravac recommends that manufacturers figure out whether their consumers really want low-end products that do one thing really well or higher-end products that come with lots of features. 'Really understanding why consumers gravitate towards one product category or another will be important in 2009,' he adds.
的確，或許這是美國二戰(zhàn)以來所經(jīng)歷的最嚴(yán)重衰退。但是為我們帶來這次北美消費(fèi)電子展的人將樂意告訴我們，實(shí)際上，科技產(chǎn)品目前的銷售跟以前的衰退期相比要好得多。
消費(fèi)電子協(xié)會(huì)(Consumer Electronics Association)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家杜布拉維克(Shawn DuBravac)說，有跡象顯示，人們對(duì)電視、筆記本電腦和移動(dòng)電話等電子設(shè)備的看法在改變。他說，整個(gè)2008年11月，耐用消費(fèi)品采購總額中科技類商品占17.22%，是50年來的比例。
杜布拉維克說，盡管這些產(chǎn)品通常屬于非必需品，但消費(fèi)者卻把它們看成必需品。
這并不意味著消費(fèi)者不會(huì)削減這方面的支出，實(shí)際上，在許多產(chǎn)品類別，投資者因?yàn)楦鞣N原因似乎正在轉(zhuǎn)向較低價(jià)格的產(chǎn)品。比如，2007年假日季節(jié)售出的平板電視接近50%在40英寸以上，而今天這個(gè)比例是接近35%。
被稱為“上網(wǎng)本”的新型低價(jià)筆記本電腦的流行或許是另一個(gè)例子，一些消費(fèi)者或許會(huì)等待更長時(shí)間再更換已有的功能完備的筆記本電腦，先買個(gè)便宜的電腦過渡一下。在閃存芯片上儲(chǔ)存圖像的便攜式攝像機(jī)中那些價(jià)格較低的型號(hào)也在熱銷，2009年的銷量有望增加兩倍。
另一方面，數(shù)碼相機(jī)在美國家庭的普及率達(dá)到了77%的歷史水平。因此，杜布拉維克預(yù)計(jì)，2009年低端型號(hào)的銷售收入將大幅下降。
由于90%的美國家庭擁有手機(jī)，手機(jī)產(chǎn)品也有一個(gè)如何實(shí)現(xiàn)市場滲透的問題。這是CEA預(yù)計(jì)2009年全部手機(jī)銷量將下降5%的部分原因。不過，預(yù)計(jì)2009年高端智能手機(jī)交貨量將增加31%。
不論怎樣，杜布拉維克建議制造商要考慮消費(fèi)者是真地希望購買突出某一方面功能的低端產(chǎn)品，還是具備多種功能的高端產(chǎn)品。他補(bǔ)充說，切實(shí)理解消費(fèi)者為什么偏好這樣或那樣的產(chǎn)品，這一點(diǎn)在2009年尤其重要。