電子產品開始被視為必需品

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CES Economist: Gadgets Are Necessities Now
    Yes, this may be the worst recession America has seen since World War II. But the people who are bring us the Consumer Electronics Show would like to point out that sales of tech products are actually faring pretty well when compared to what happened during previous recessions.
    The evidence suggest that people's views on devices such as televisions, notebooks computers and mobile phones are changing, says Shawn DuBravac, economist for the Consumer Electronics Association. Through November of 2008, 17.22% of total durable good purchases were tech goods, the highest share in 50 years, he says.
    'While these are typically discretionary purchases, consumers are treating them like non discretionary purchases,' says Mr. DuBravac.
    That doesn't mean that consumers aren't making cutbacks. In fact, in many categories consumers seem to be gravitating towards lower-priced items for varying reasons. For example, coming out of the 2007 holiday season, nearly 50% of all flat panel sales were over 40 inches. Today, Mr. DuBravac says that numbers stands closer to 35%.
    The popularity of so-called 'netbooks,' a new kind of lower priced laptop, may be another example-with some consumers perhaps waiting a little longer to replace the fully featured notebook PC they already own, and buying something cheaper to tide them over. Low-priced camcorders that store images on chips called flash memory are also a hot category, pegged to grow units more than double in 2009.
    On the other hand, penetration of digital still cameras is at an all-time high of 77% of U.S. households. Consequently, Mr. DuBravac predicts that low-end models will see steep revenue declines in 2009.
    Mobile phones also have a penetration problem, with 90% of U.S. households owning one. That's partly why CEA expects sales of all mobile phones units to decline 5% in 2009, though unit shipments of high-end smartphones are expected to increase by 31% in 2009.
    In any case, Mr. DuBravac recommends that manufacturers figure out whether their consumers really want low-end products that do one thing really well or higher-end products that come with lots of features. 'Really understanding why consumers gravitate towards one product category or another will be important in 2009,' he adds.
    的確,或許這是美國二戰(zhàn)以來所經(jīng)歷的最嚴重衰退。但是為我們帶來這次北美消費電子展的人將樂意告訴我們,實際上,科技產品目前的銷售跟以前的衰退期相比要好得多。
    消費電子協(xié)會(Consumer Electronics Association)經(jīng)濟學家杜布拉維克(Shawn DuBravac)說,有跡象顯示,人們對電視、筆記本電腦和移動電話等電子設備的看法在改變。他說,整個2008年11月,耐用消費品采購總額中科技類商品占17.22%,是50年來的比例。
    杜布拉維克說,盡管這些產品通常屬于非必需品,但消費者卻把它們看成必需品。
    這并不意味著消費者不會削減這方面的支出,實際上,在許多產品類別,投資者因為各種原因似乎正在轉向較低價格的產品。比如,2007年假日季節(jié)售出的平板電視接近50%在40英寸以上,而今天這個比例是接近35%。
    被稱為“上網(wǎng)本”的新型低價筆記本電腦的流行或許是另一個例子,一些消費者或許會等待更長時間再更換已有的功能完備的筆記本電腦,先買個便宜的電腦過渡一下。在閃存芯片上儲存圖像的便攜式攝像機中那些價格較低的型號也在熱銷,2009年的銷量有望增加兩倍。
    另一方面,數(shù)碼相機在美國家庭的普及率達到了77%的歷史水平。因此,杜布拉維克預計,2009年低端型號的銷售收入將大幅下降。
    由于90%的美國家庭擁有手機,手機產品也有一個如何實現(xiàn)市場滲透的問題。這是CEA預計2009年全部手機銷量將下降5%的部分原因。不過,預計2009年高端智能手機交貨量將增加31%。
    不論怎樣,杜布拉維克建議制造商要考慮消費者是真地希望購買突出某一方面功能的低端產品,還是具備多種功能的高端產品。他補充說,切實理解消費者為什么偏好這樣或那樣的產品,這一點在2009年尤其重要。