Forecasters who thought the economy might have turned the corner in January after a frighteningly bad December were hoping for more good news this month．They aren’t getting it．
Barely halfway through February，the first few signs have some economists thinking that January’s modest good news was an aberration and that the economy remains on a downward slide．
“January and December were so different that February’s going to tell you a lot．”says Ethan Harris，a senior economist at Lehman Bros．“The early signs are not good．”
Retail sales，which rose in January，have fallen in February，according to Redbook numbers．So have car sales．Initial unemployment insurance claims，which fell in January，are rising again，despite a slight downtick Thursday．
Prices for bellwether commodities such as lumber and computer chips have plummeted。a signal that demand continues to shrivel．And after roaring ahead earlier，the stock market has given up most of its gains for the year．
Just Tuesday，F(xiàn)ederal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Senate committee that the exceptional weakness that made December’s data so grim“apparently did not continue in January．” Among other things，consumers returned to malls and auto dealers in heartening numbers．
“I’d never be so presumptuous as to second guess(Greenspan)，”says Jason Trennert,managing director of International Strategy＆Investment．“But our own data suggest that whatever modest acceleration in economic activity we saw in January has started to fade．”
Trennert says what happened in January was probably just a temporary bounce sparked by milder weather and aggressive discounting by retailers．
Harris says both December and January were exaggerations and that February looks more like reality．“Really， what you have is a manufacturing recession and moderate growth in the rest of the economy?！県e says．Like most analysts，Lehman Bros．is forecasting very slow growth but no recession.But economists have been revising their views a lot lately，and the indicators have been unusually confusin9—typical of a period when the economy is at a turning point．。Despite February’s gloom'for example。a key gauge of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region improved slightly Thursday，as did a nadonal home builders survey．
With consumer psychology crucial to what happens next，economists are eager to see today as University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey．Consumer confidence plunged from November’s 107．6 level to 94．7 in January，leading Greenspan to warn that continued erosion could open the door to recession．
Though most economists expect just a slight drop for February，the downside is worrisome．Says lan Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics：“If the Michigan Survey drops 5 points(today)。we’ve got a real problem．”[438 words]
1．Alan Greenspan thought that______．
A．the economy might have somewhat revived in January
B．the economy remained on a downward slide in January
C．there would be no recession in February
D．there would be a slight growth in February
2．Few economists believe that______．
A．there was an obvious economic growth in December
B．there was a slight economic growth in January
C．January’s economic growth was abnormaJ
D．the early economic signs for February were discouraging
3．Jason Trennert believes that what Alan Greenspan said about the economic situation______.
A．in December was hardly credible
B．in January was sensible
C．in January turned out to be wrong
D．in February was plausible
4．The economists'prediction about the future economic situation is based to a large extent on______.
A．the analysis of consumer confidence
B．the present economic situation
C．current prices for bellwether commodities
D．what Alan Greenspan has warned
5．From this passage，we learn that______．
A．the economy is unlikely to drop in February
B．the economy is likely to drop tremendously in February
C．consumer confidence accounts for nothing at all
D．the economy is at a turning point
難句透析
①Barely halfway through February，the first few signs have some economists thinkin9”[that January’s modest good news was an aberration]and”[that the economy remains on a downward slide]．
【結(jié)構】本句謂語動詞“have”的賓語是“some economists”；現(xiàn)在分詞短語“thinking…”是賓語補語；方括號標示的兩個“that”從句是“thinking”的賓語從句。
【釋義】2月份剛過半個月，就有若干跡象令經(jīng)濟學家想到1月份經(jīng)濟有所好轉(zhuǎn)的消息不太正常，經(jīng)濟仍在下滑。
②Initial unemployment insurance claims，which fell in January，are rising again，despite a slight downtick Thursday．
【結(jié)構】本句的主語是“claims”，謂語動詞是“are rising”；非限制性定語從句“which…January”修飾“claims”。
【釋義】盡管星期四股票交易略低于前盤，1月份有所下降的初始失業(yè)保險申領目前又在上升。
③Prices for bellwether commodities such as lumber and computer chips have plummeted，a signal[that demand continues to shrivel]．
【結(jié)構】本句的主語是“Prices”，謂語動詞是“have plummeted”；“a signal…”是后置的名詞短語，補充說明主句意思；方括號標示的“that…shrivel”是“signal”的同位語從句。
【釋義】諸如木材和計算機芯片這些主導商品的價格已經(jīng)大幅度下降，這是需求繼續(xù)萎縮的跡象。
④“I’d never be so presumptuous as to second guess(Greenspan)，”says Jason Trennert，managing director of International Strategy＆Investment．“But our own data suggest[that(whatever modest acceleration in economic activity we saw in January)has started to fade]．
【結(jié)構】方括號標示的“that…fade”是“suggest”的賓語從句；圓括號標示的“whatever…January”是其中的主語從句。
【釋義】國際策略和投資部的總經(jīng)理耶遜·特倫耐說：“我絕對不會那么主觀臆斷，以至于懷疑格林斯潘的說法。但是，我們自己的資料表明，無論1月份我們見到經(jīng)濟有多少好轉(zhuǎn)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始回落?！?BR> ⑤But economists have been revising their views a lot lately，and the indicators have been unusually confusingtypical of a period[when the economy is at a turning point]．
【結(jié)構】本句是由“and”連接的兩個分句組成的并列句；破折號后面的部分是對主句意思的補充說明；方括號標示的“when．．．point”用做后置定語從句，修飾“period”。
【釋義】但是，最近經(jīng)濟學家一直在大幅度修正自己的觀點，經(jīng)濟指標一直很令人困惑。這是經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)折階段的典型特點。
⑥Consumer confidence plunged from November’s 107．6 level to 94．7 in January，leading Greenspan to warn[that continued erosion could open the door to recession]．
【結(jié)構】在本句中，現(xiàn)在分詞短語“l(fā)eading…recession”用做伴隨情況狀語；方括號標示的“that…recession”是動詞不定式“to warn”的賓語從句。
【釋義】 消費者的信心指數(shù)從11月份的107．6下滑到了1月份的94．7，以至格林斯潘警告說，持續(xù)信心下降可能會打開走向衰退之門。 全文翻譯
一些預測家們認為，經(jīng)過12月令人沮喪的低潮之后，1月經(jīng)濟將會轉(zhuǎn)危為安。他們?nèi)栽谄诖@個月會有更好的消息。但是他們的希望會落空的。
2月份剛過半個月，就有若干跡象令經(jīng)濟學家想到1月份經(jīng)濟有所好轉(zhuǎn)的消息不太正常，經(jīng)濟仍在下滑。
萊曼兄弟資深經(jīng)濟學家伊?！す锼拐f道：“12月和1月情況很異常，2月份將會透露很多信息。早期的跡象并不是什么好征兆?！?BR> 根據(jù)紅皮書調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)來看，1月份呈上升趨勢的零售銷售在2月份有所下降。汽車銷售面臨同樣局勢。盡管星期四股票交易略低于前盤，1月份有所下降的初始失業(yè)保險申領目前又在上升。
諸如木材和計算機芯片這些主導商品的價格已經(jīng)大幅度下降，這是需求繼續(xù)萎縮的跡象。經(jīng)歷早期上漲之后，股市目前已經(jīng)損失了全年大部分的收益。
就在星期二，聯(lián)邦儲備委員會主席艾倫·格林斯潘告訴某一參議員：令12月經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)看起來如此殘酷的那些“意外的缺陷”在接下來的1月份“不會再出現(xiàn)”。此外。聽到那些振奮人心的數(shù)據(jù)后，消費者會重新返回到商場和汽車經(jīng)銷商那里去。
國際策略和投資部的總經(jīng)理耶遜·特倫耐說：“我絕對不會那么主觀臆斷，以至于懷疑格林斯潘的說法。但是，我們自己的資料表明，無論1月份我們見到經(jīng)濟有多少好轉(zhuǎn)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始回落。”
特倫耐補充道，1月份經(jīng)濟的好轉(zhuǎn)可能只是由于溫煦的天氣和零售商大規(guī)模折扣活動引起的暫時反彈。
哈里斯則認為l2月和1月的狀況很是離奇，2月份看起來還算比較正常。他說：“真實的情況就是制造業(yè)的不景氣還有其他經(jīng)濟領域的緩慢增長?！焙推渌A測家們看法一致，萊曼兄弟也預測經(jīng)濟緩慢增長但并不會止步不前。
但是，最近經(jīng)濟學家一直在大幅度修正自己的觀點，經(jīng)濟指標一直很令人困惑。這是經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)折階段的典型特點。⑤正如一個國內(nèi)建筑公司調(diào)查顯示，盡管2月份經(jīng)濟蕭條，但周四費城制造行業(yè)某一關鍵衡量尺度卻稍有提高。 由于消費者心理對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展趨勢有著極關重要的作用，經(jīng)濟學家們急切地想看到今天的密歇根消費者信心指數(shù)。消費者的信心指數(shù)從11月份的107．6下滑到了1月份的94．7，以至格林斯潘警告說，持續(xù)信心下降可能會打開走向衰退之門。
盡管經(jīng)濟學家們期望2月份經(jīng)濟只是輕度的下降，但下降的底線還是令人不安。
高頻經(jīng)濟顧問公司的伊恩·謝波德森說：“如果今天密歇根消費者信心指數(shù)下降5個百分點，我們就有大麻煩了?！?BR> 超綱詞匯
Aberration n．失常
Bellwether n．系鈴的公羊，前導
Downtick n．低于前盤的股票市場交易
gauge v．／n．規(guī)格，測量
Grim adj．嚴酷的
Hearten vt．／vi．鼓勵，激勵，振奮
lumber 木材
Plummet 垂直落下
Presumptuous 專橫的，自以為是的
recession 衰退，不景氣
Shrivel v．枯萎
參考答案：1．A 2．A 3．B 4．A 5．D
Barely halfway through February，the first few signs have some economists thinking that January’s modest good news was an aberration and that the economy remains on a downward slide．
“January and December were so different that February’s going to tell you a lot．”says Ethan Harris，a senior economist at Lehman Bros．“The early signs are not good．”
Retail sales，which rose in January，have fallen in February，according to Redbook numbers．So have car sales．Initial unemployment insurance claims，which fell in January，are rising again，despite a slight downtick Thursday．
Prices for bellwether commodities such as lumber and computer chips have plummeted。a signal that demand continues to shrivel．And after roaring ahead earlier，the stock market has given up most of its gains for the year．
Just Tuesday，F(xiàn)ederal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Senate committee that the exceptional weakness that made December’s data so grim“apparently did not continue in January．” Among other things，consumers returned to malls and auto dealers in heartening numbers．
“I’d never be so presumptuous as to second guess(Greenspan)，”says Jason Trennert,managing director of International Strategy＆Investment．“But our own data suggest that whatever modest acceleration in economic activity we saw in January has started to fade．”
Trennert says what happened in January was probably just a temporary bounce sparked by milder weather and aggressive discounting by retailers．
Harris says both December and January were exaggerations and that February looks more like reality．“Really， what you have is a manufacturing recession and moderate growth in the rest of the economy?！県e says．Like most analysts，Lehman Bros．is forecasting very slow growth but no recession.But economists have been revising their views a lot lately，and the indicators have been unusually confusin9—typical of a period when the economy is at a turning point．。Despite February’s gloom'for example。a key gauge of manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region improved slightly Thursday，as did a nadonal home builders survey．
With consumer psychology crucial to what happens next，economists are eager to see today as University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey．Consumer confidence plunged from November’s 107．6 level to 94．7 in January，leading Greenspan to warn that continued erosion could open the door to recession．
Though most economists expect just a slight drop for February，the downside is worrisome．Says lan Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics：“If the Michigan Survey drops 5 points(today)。we’ve got a real problem．”[438 words]
1．Alan Greenspan thought that______．
A．the economy might have somewhat revived in January
B．the economy remained on a downward slide in January
C．there would be no recession in February
D．there would be a slight growth in February
2．Few economists believe that______．
A．there was an obvious economic growth in December
B．there was a slight economic growth in January
C．January’s economic growth was abnormaJ
D．the early economic signs for February were discouraging
3．Jason Trennert believes that what Alan Greenspan said about the economic situation______.
A．in December was hardly credible
B．in January was sensible
C．in January turned out to be wrong
D．in February was plausible
4．The economists'prediction about the future economic situation is based to a large extent on______.
A．the analysis of consumer confidence
B．the present economic situation
C．current prices for bellwether commodities
D．what Alan Greenspan has warned
5．From this passage，we learn that______．
A．the economy is unlikely to drop in February
B．the economy is likely to drop tremendously in February
C．consumer confidence accounts for nothing at all
D．the economy is at a turning point
難句透析
①Barely halfway through February，the first few signs have some economists thinkin9”[that January’s modest good news was an aberration]and”[that the economy remains on a downward slide]．
【結(jié)構】本句謂語動詞“have”的賓語是“some economists”；現(xiàn)在分詞短語“thinking…”是賓語補語；方括號標示的兩個“that”從句是“thinking”的賓語從句。
【釋義】2月份剛過半個月，就有若干跡象令經(jīng)濟學家想到1月份經(jīng)濟有所好轉(zhuǎn)的消息不太正常，經(jīng)濟仍在下滑。
②Initial unemployment insurance claims，which fell in January，are rising again，despite a slight downtick Thursday．
【結(jié)構】本句的主語是“claims”，謂語動詞是“are rising”；非限制性定語從句“which…January”修飾“claims”。
【釋義】盡管星期四股票交易略低于前盤，1月份有所下降的初始失業(yè)保險申領目前又在上升。
③Prices for bellwether commodities such as lumber and computer chips have plummeted，a signal[that demand continues to shrivel]．
【結(jié)構】本句的主語是“Prices”，謂語動詞是“have plummeted”；“a signal…”是后置的名詞短語，補充說明主句意思；方括號標示的“that…shrivel”是“signal”的同位語從句。
【釋義】諸如木材和計算機芯片這些主導商品的價格已經(jīng)大幅度下降，這是需求繼續(xù)萎縮的跡象。
④“I’d never be so presumptuous as to second guess(Greenspan)，”says Jason Trennert，managing director of International Strategy＆Investment．“But our own data suggest[that(whatever modest acceleration in economic activity we saw in January)has started to fade]．
【結(jié)構】方括號標示的“that…fade”是“suggest”的賓語從句；圓括號標示的“whatever…January”是其中的主語從句。
【釋義】國際策略和投資部的總經(jīng)理耶遜·特倫耐說：“我絕對不會那么主觀臆斷，以至于懷疑格林斯潘的說法。但是，我們自己的資料表明，無論1月份我們見到經(jīng)濟有多少好轉(zhuǎn)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始回落?！?BR> ⑤But economists have been revising their views a lot lately，and the indicators have been unusually confusingtypical of a period[when the economy is at a turning point]．
【結(jié)構】本句是由“and”連接的兩個分句組成的并列句；破折號后面的部分是對主句意思的補充說明；方括號標示的“when．．．point”用做后置定語從句，修飾“period”。
【釋義】但是，最近經(jīng)濟學家一直在大幅度修正自己的觀點，經(jīng)濟指標一直很令人困惑。這是經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)折階段的典型特點。
⑥Consumer confidence plunged from November’s 107．6 level to 94．7 in January，leading Greenspan to warn[that continued erosion could open the door to recession]．
【結(jié)構】在本句中，現(xiàn)在分詞短語“l(fā)eading…recession”用做伴隨情況狀語；方括號標示的“that…recession”是動詞不定式“to warn”的賓語從句。
【釋義】 消費者的信心指數(shù)從11月份的107．6下滑到了1月份的94．7，以至格林斯潘警告說，持續(xù)信心下降可能會打開走向衰退之門。 全文翻譯
一些預測家們認為，經(jīng)過12月令人沮喪的低潮之后，1月經(jīng)濟將會轉(zhuǎn)危為安。他們?nèi)栽谄诖@個月會有更好的消息。但是他們的希望會落空的。
2月份剛過半個月，就有若干跡象令經(jīng)濟學家想到1月份經(jīng)濟有所好轉(zhuǎn)的消息不太正常，經(jīng)濟仍在下滑。
萊曼兄弟資深經(jīng)濟學家伊?！す锼拐f道：“12月和1月情況很異常，2月份將會透露很多信息。早期的跡象并不是什么好征兆?！?BR> 根據(jù)紅皮書調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)來看，1月份呈上升趨勢的零售銷售在2月份有所下降。汽車銷售面臨同樣局勢。盡管星期四股票交易略低于前盤，1月份有所下降的初始失業(yè)保險申領目前又在上升。
諸如木材和計算機芯片這些主導商品的價格已經(jīng)大幅度下降，這是需求繼續(xù)萎縮的跡象。經(jīng)歷早期上漲之后，股市目前已經(jīng)損失了全年大部分的收益。
就在星期二，聯(lián)邦儲備委員會主席艾倫·格林斯潘告訴某一參議員：令12月經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)看起來如此殘酷的那些“意外的缺陷”在接下來的1月份“不會再出現(xiàn)”。此外。聽到那些振奮人心的數(shù)據(jù)后，消費者會重新返回到商場和汽車經(jīng)銷商那里去。
國際策略和投資部的總經(jīng)理耶遜·特倫耐說：“我絕對不會那么主觀臆斷，以至于懷疑格林斯潘的說法。但是，我們自己的資料表明，無論1月份我們見到經(jīng)濟有多少好轉(zhuǎn)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)開始回落。”
特倫耐補充道，1月份經(jīng)濟的好轉(zhuǎn)可能只是由于溫煦的天氣和零售商大規(guī)模折扣活動引起的暫時反彈。
哈里斯則認為l2月和1月的狀況很是離奇，2月份看起來還算比較正常。他說：“真實的情況就是制造業(yè)的不景氣還有其他經(jīng)濟領域的緩慢增長?！焙推渌A測家們看法一致，萊曼兄弟也預測經(jīng)濟緩慢增長但并不會止步不前。
但是，最近經(jīng)濟學家一直在大幅度修正自己的觀點，經(jīng)濟指標一直很令人困惑。這是經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)折階段的典型特點。⑤正如一個國內(nèi)建筑公司調(diào)查顯示，盡管2月份經(jīng)濟蕭條，但周四費城制造行業(yè)某一關鍵衡量尺度卻稍有提高。 由于消費者心理對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展趨勢有著極關重要的作用，經(jīng)濟學家們急切地想看到今天的密歇根消費者信心指數(shù)。消費者的信心指數(shù)從11月份的107．6下滑到了1月份的94．7，以至格林斯潘警告說，持續(xù)信心下降可能會打開走向衰退之門。
盡管經(jīng)濟學家們期望2月份經(jīng)濟只是輕度的下降，但下降的底線還是令人不安。
高頻經(jīng)濟顧問公司的伊恩·謝波德森說：“如果今天密歇根消費者信心指數(shù)下降5個百分點，我們就有大麻煩了?！?BR> 超綱詞匯
Aberration n．失常
Bellwether n．系鈴的公羊，前導
Downtick n．低于前盤的股票市場交易
gauge v．／n．規(guī)格，測量
Grim adj．嚴酷的
Hearten vt．／vi．鼓勵，激勵，振奮
lumber 木材
Plummet 垂直落下
Presumptuous 專橫的，自以為是的
recession 衰退，不景氣
Shrivel v．枯萎
參考答案：1．A 2．A 3．B 4．A 5．D