12. The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.
“Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two-thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
在把Gazette日報的廣告版向Marston地區(qū)的蔬菜商銷售的計劃：
在Gazette日報宣傳特價菜會幫助你提高銷售額。考慮上月的一個研究的結果。Marston中心區(qū)的一個商店的30種特價菜在Gazette做了4天廣告。每當有特價菜被賣出，職員就問顧客是否讀過廣告。200顧客中的2/3回答是肯定的。而且，持肯定回答的顧客中有超過一半的人在店里的消費超過100美元。
讀了廣告之后買了特價菜，并不意味著是因為看了廣告才去買特價菜。可以有很多因素促使消費者買特價菜。此外作者是想說可以提高總體銷售水平但他的論證實際根本沒有涉及這一點。起碼要給出沒有做廣告時候一天銷售額和做了廣告之后的對比。
1， 沒有對比沒做廣告和做廣告后sale的對比，只說了消費的人看了廣告，并且一半支付了100以上，很可能沒有廣告的話也一樣。
2， 沒有建立起因果聯(lián)系，雖然買東西的人看了廣告，但是不代表是因為廣告而買的。很可能不存在此因果聯(lián)系。
3， 沒有排除他因。如過sale上升了，那也有可能是別的原因?qū)е碌?，而不是因為廣告。比如thanks giving，比如商品質(zhì)量提高，花樣更多，比如最近的經(jīng)濟很好等等。
The conclusion of this argument is that advertising the reduced price of selected items in the Daily Gazette will result in increased sales overall. To support it, the author cites an informal poll conducted by sales clerks when customers purchased advertised items. Each time one or more of the advertised items was sold, the clerks asked whether the customer had read the ad. It turned out that two-thirds of 200 shoppers questioned said that they had read the ad. In addition, of those who reported reading the ad, more than half spent over $100 in the store. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, the author’s line of reasoning is that the advertisement was the cause of the purchase of the sale items. However, while the poll establishes a correlation between reading the ad and purchasing sale items, and also indicates a correlation, though less significantly, between reading the ad and buying non-sale items, it does not establish a general causal relationship between these events. To establish this relationship, other factors that could bring about this result must be considered and eliminated. For example, if the four days during which the poll was conducted preceded Thanksgiving and the advertised items were traditionally associated with this holiday, then the results of the poll would be extremely biased and unreliable.
Moreover, the author assumes that the poll indicates that advertising certain sale will cause a general increase in sales. But the poll does not even address the issue of increased overall sales; it informs us mainly that, of the people who purchased sales items, more had read the ad than not. A much clearer indicator of the ad’s effectiveness would be a comparison of overall sales on days the ad ran with overall sales on otherwise similar days when the ad did not run.
In sum, this argument is defective mainly because the poll does not support the conclusion that sales in general will increase when reduced-price products are advertised in the Daily Gazette. To strengthen the argument, the author must, at the very least, provide comparisons of overall sales reports as described above.
“Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two-thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store.”
Discuss how well reasoned... etc.
在把Gazette日報的廣告版向Marston地區(qū)的蔬菜商銷售的計劃：
在Gazette日報宣傳特價菜會幫助你提高銷售額。考慮上月的一個研究的結果。Marston中心區(qū)的一個商店的30種特價菜在Gazette做了4天廣告。每當有特價菜被賣出，職員就問顧客是否讀過廣告。200顧客中的2/3回答是肯定的。而且，持肯定回答的顧客中有超過一半的人在店里的消費超過100美元。
讀了廣告之后買了特價菜，并不意味著是因為看了廣告才去買特價菜。可以有很多因素促使消費者買特價菜。此外作者是想說可以提高總體銷售水平但他的論證實際根本沒有涉及這一點。起碼要給出沒有做廣告時候一天銷售額和做了廣告之后的對比。
1， 沒有對比沒做廣告和做廣告后sale的對比，只說了消費的人看了廣告，并且一半支付了100以上，很可能沒有廣告的話也一樣。
2， 沒有建立起因果聯(lián)系，雖然買東西的人看了廣告，但是不代表是因為廣告而買的。很可能不存在此因果聯(lián)系。
3， 沒有排除他因。如過sale上升了，那也有可能是別的原因?qū)е碌?，而不是因為廣告。比如thanks giving，比如商品質(zhì)量提高，花樣更多，比如最近的經(jīng)濟很好等等。
The conclusion of this argument is that advertising the reduced price of selected items in the Daily Gazette will result in increased sales overall. To support it, the author cites an informal poll conducted by sales clerks when customers purchased advertised items. Each time one or more of the advertised items was sold, the clerks asked whether the customer had read the ad. It turned out that two-thirds of 200 shoppers questioned said that they had read the ad. In addition, of those who reported reading the ad, more than half spent over $100 in the store. This argument is unconvincing for two reasons.
To begin with, the author’s line of reasoning is that the advertisement was the cause of the purchase of the sale items. However, while the poll establishes a correlation between reading the ad and purchasing sale items, and also indicates a correlation, though less significantly, between reading the ad and buying non-sale items, it does not establish a general causal relationship between these events. To establish this relationship, other factors that could bring about this result must be considered and eliminated. For example, if the four days during which the poll was conducted preceded Thanksgiving and the advertised items were traditionally associated with this holiday, then the results of the poll would be extremely biased and unreliable.
Moreover, the author assumes that the poll indicates that advertising certain sale will cause a general increase in sales. But the poll does not even address the issue of increased overall sales; it informs us mainly that, of the people who purchased sales items, more had read the ad than not. A much clearer indicator of the ad’s effectiveness would be a comparison of overall sales on days the ad ran with overall sales on otherwise similar days when the ad did not run.
In sum, this argument is defective mainly because the poll does not support the conclusion that sales in general will increase when reduced-price products are advertised in the Daily Gazette. To strengthen the argument, the author must, at the very least, provide comparisons of overall sales reports as described above.