由于Sun微系統(tǒng)公司對IBM提出的70億美元收購報價給予了拒絕,IBM收購Sun的談判在星期天破裂?！ ?BR> Is Sun Microsystems going to let go of IBM's takeover offer now, only to regret it later?
Sun電子計算機公司(Sun Microsystems Inc.)現(xiàn)在拒絕國際商業(yè)機器公司(IBM)的收購要約，以后只會追悔莫及？
The answer perhaps might be seen only from the rear-view mirror a year from now, but the computer and software maker need look no further for a cautionary tale than Yahoo. The Web search and advertising company last summer rejected Microsoft's $42-a-share bid and its shares were trading recently at $13.11.
答案或許只有到一年之后才能見分曉，但Sun再也找不到比雅虎公司(Yahoo)更好的前車之鑒了。網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索和廣告公司雅虎去年夏天拒絕了微軟(Microsoft)每股42美元的收購報價，現(xiàn)在股價已經(jīng)跌到了13.11美元。
Sun is driving a hard bargain, pushing IBM for a better price than the $9.10 to $9.40 a share on the table. As today's Wall Street Journal article notes, late-state negotiations often full of brinksmanship.
Sun正在進行艱苦的討價還價，敦促IBM提高目前磋商中每股9.10-9.40美元的價格。正如今天《華爾街日報》文章所指出的，談判的最后階段總是充滿著邊緣策略，最后反而會絕處逢生。
Sun also wants IBM to comply with any regulatory request that comes down the pike. IBM has 32% of the server market and Sun has 10%, so it is a good bet regulators would take an interest in such a combination, perhaps asking Big Blue to sell some businesses to get a deal to go through. Many companies view the Obama administration as merger unfriendly and mercurial in its approach to corporate America, and so IBM is reluctant to make any dicey political promises.
Sun還希望IBM遵守任何可能出現(xiàn)的監(jiān)管要求。IBM擁有服務(wù)器市場32%的市場份額，而Sun擁有10%的份額；因此監(jiān)管部門很有可能會盯上這樣的強強交易，可能會要求IBM出售部分業(yè)務(wù)以保證交易獲得批準。很多公司認為奧巴馬政府對美國企業(yè)的態(tài)度不利于并購而且多變，因此IBM不愿輕率冒險地作出任何政治方面的承諾。
The IBM offer is flattering to Sun, and several analysts were scratching their heads over the initial premium of nearly 100% IBM was said to have been discussing. The bigger danger might be that IBM's offer was too flattering and that Big Blue's infatuation won't last.
IBM的報價已經(jīng)對Sun估值過高了，幾位分析師也對據(jù)說IBM正在討論的將近100%的溢價感到大惑不解。目前這樁交易更大的威脅是，IBM的報價太高了，以致于很可能會皤然反悟，不會當太長時間的冤大頭。
After all, the proposed deal would be one of the biggest IBM has ever done and is inconsistent with IBM's usual plan of boosting its existing businesses with small acquisitions. Credit Suisse analyst Bill Shope wrote on March 18, when The Wall Street Journal first reported the talks, 'With the acquisition, IBM is doubling down on one of the most secularly challenged segments in servers. In our view, the acquisition makes little strategic sense and the 100% premium seems aggressive.'
畢竟，這樁擬議交易將是IBM規(guī)模的一個交易，也不符合IBM通過小規(guī)模收購擴大現(xiàn)有業(yè)務(wù)的一貫策略。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)分析師肖普(Bill Shope)在3月18日本報率先報導(dǎo)雙方談判時寫道，通過這次收購，IBM是在對一個長期前景最為嚴峻的服務(wù)器領(lǐng)域加大賭注。我們看來，這次收購沒有什么戰(zhàn)略意義，而100%的溢價似乎過于冒險了。
Then look at the deal through the prism of Sun's stock. Before the IBM offer, Sun shares had been hammered, hitting a 52-week low of $2.60 on Nov. 24 and under $5 when IBM approached. That compares with the 52-week high of $16.37 last May. Sun could gamble that the bear market is over and that any rebound will take Sun's shares with it. That would be a reverse of what happened at Yahoo, whose rejection of the Microsoft offer was followed shortly by the market's headlong plunge that began in the fall. But the stock market wasn't solely to blame for Sun's troubles in 2008. Its stock fell 79%, compared with the 45% decline of other hardware companies, according to UBS research.
我們下面從Sun的股價走勢來看看這樁交易。在IBM提出報價之前，Sun的股價走勢低迷，去年11月24日觸及了2.60美元的52周低點，IBM接洽的時候還不到5美元。該公司股價在去年5月創(chuàng)下了52周高點16.37美元。Sun可能押注熊市正在結(jié)束，市場反彈也會帶動公司股價回升。如果真是這樣，那就和雅虎的遭遇正好相反；雅虎拒絕微軟報價后不久，市場就從去年秋天開始急劇下滑。不過Sun 2008財年的問題也不能完全怪股市。據(jù)瑞銀(UBS)的研究，Sun的股價下跌了79%，而其他硬件公司的股價跌幅只有45%。
Sun is on its ninth restructuring to cut costs and continues to slice jobs. Analysts don't see another bidder on the horizon, because most of the cost cuts would be in research & development as well as selling, general and administrative expenses, which would include cuts in the sales force and back-office functions of payroll and accounting. The only other companies who could take advantage of such cuts would be other server-makers like Dell and Hewlett-Packard, and neither looks inclined toward a deal.
Sun正在實施第九次重組，計劃削減成本并繼續(xù)裁減員工。分析師們認為該公司難有其他買家，因為其大多數(shù)成本削減都是在研發(fā)、銷售、一般以及行政支出方面，可能會削減銷售部門以及財會等后勤部門的規(guī)模。可能得益于此類削減的其他公司或許是戴爾(Dell)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等其他服務(wù)器生產(chǎn)商，但兩家公司似乎都對此興趣寡然。
UBS analyst Maynard Um on March 18 questioned Sun's ability to keep cutting costs as a standalone company: 'There is a potential restructuring story given relative inefficiencies. We do think IBM would be in a position to take out cost more quickly, however, we expect Sun revs to continue to be pressured in [fiscal year 2009 and fiscal year 2010] given its reliance on high end servers and limited ability to monetize its software.'
瑞銀分析師烏姆(Maynard Um)在3月18日撰文質(zhì)疑Sun作為獨立公司能否繼續(xù)削減成本。他寫道，考慮到目前的相對低效，Sun存在著重組的空間。我們認為IBM有能力更快地削減成本。然而，從Sun對高端服務(wù)器業(yè)務(wù)的依賴以及軟件業(yè)務(wù)的有限盈利能力來看，該公司的收入會在2009財年和2010財年繼續(xù)承壓。
The most sobering perspective on Sun's chances without a deal come from the company's own chief financial officer. According to UBS analyst Um, in February, 'Sun's CFO was careful not to signal a line of sight on 'light at the end of the tunnel.' We believe Sun's top line will continue to be challenging and that the fate of shares rest on cost cutting.' In rejecting IBM's offer, Sun must be more confident than observers in the success of its cutting costs.
目前對Sun不進行交易的前景最清醒的論斷來自該公司首席財務(wù)長。瑞銀分析師烏姆說道，Sun首席財務(wù)長在2月份很謹慎地不愿發(fā)出類似“危機浮現(xiàn)結(jié)束跡象”之類的信號。“我們認為Sun的收入將繼續(xù)面臨困難，股票的命運將取決于成本削減?！本芙^了IBM的報價，Sun必須比觀察人士更加堅信其成本削減能夠獲得成功。
Sun電子計算機公司(Sun Microsystems Inc.)現(xiàn)在拒絕國際商業(yè)機器公司(IBM)的收購要約，以后只會追悔莫及？
The answer perhaps might be seen only from the rear-view mirror a year from now, but the computer and software maker need look no further for a cautionary tale than Yahoo. The Web search and advertising company last summer rejected Microsoft's $42-a-share bid and its shares were trading recently at $13.11.
答案或許只有到一年之后才能見分曉，但Sun再也找不到比雅虎公司(Yahoo)更好的前車之鑒了。網(wǎng)絡(luò)搜索和廣告公司雅虎去年夏天拒絕了微軟(Microsoft)每股42美元的收購報價，現(xiàn)在股價已經(jīng)跌到了13.11美元。
Sun is driving a hard bargain, pushing IBM for a better price than the $9.10 to $9.40 a share on the table. As today's Wall Street Journal article notes, late-state negotiations often full of brinksmanship.
Sun正在進行艱苦的討價還價，敦促IBM提高目前磋商中每股9.10-9.40美元的價格。正如今天《華爾街日報》文章所指出的，談判的最后階段總是充滿著邊緣策略，最后反而會絕處逢生。
Sun also wants IBM to comply with any regulatory request that comes down the pike. IBM has 32% of the server market and Sun has 10%, so it is a good bet regulators would take an interest in such a combination, perhaps asking Big Blue to sell some businesses to get a deal to go through. Many companies view the Obama administration as merger unfriendly and mercurial in its approach to corporate America, and so IBM is reluctant to make any dicey political promises.
Sun還希望IBM遵守任何可能出現(xiàn)的監(jiān)管要求。IBM擁有服務(wù)器市場32%的市場份額，而Sun擁有10%的份額；因此監(jiān)管部門很有可能會盯上這樣的強強交易，可能會要求IBM出售部分業(yè)務(wù)以保證交易獲得批準。很多公司認為奧巴馬政府對美國企業(yè)的態(tài)度不利于并購而且多變，因此IBM不愿輕率冒險地作出任何政治方面的承諾。
The IBM offer is flattering to Sun, and several analysts were scratching their heads over the initial premium of nearly 100% IBM was said to have been discussing. The bigger danger might be that IBM's offer was too flattering and that Big Blue's infatuation won't last.
IBM的報價已經(jīng)對Sun估值過高了，幾位分析師也對據(jù)說IBM正在討論的將近100%的溢價感到大惑不解。目前這樁交易更大的威脅是，IBM的報價太高了，以致于很可能會皤然反悟，不會當太長時間的冤大頭。
After all, the proposed deal would be one of the biggest IBM has ever done and is inconsistent with IBM's usual plan of boosting its existing businesses with small acquisitions. Credit Suisse analyst Bill Shope wrote on March 18, when The Wall Street Journal first reported the talks, 'With the acquisition, IBM is doubling down on one of the most secularly challenged segments in servers. In our view, the acquisition makes little strategic sense and the 100% premium seems aggressive.'
畢竟，這樁擬議交易將是IBM規(guī)模的一個交易，也不符合IBM通過小規(guī)模收購擴大現(xiàn)有業(yè)務(wù)的一貫策略。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)分析師肖普(Bill Shope)在3月18日本報率先報導(dǎo)雙方談判時寫道，通過這次收購，IBM是在對一個長期前景最為嚴峻的服務(wù)器領(lǐng)域加大賭注。我們看來，這次收購沒有什么戰(zhàn)略意義，而100%的溢價似乎過于冒險了。
Then look at the deal through the prism of Sun's stock. Before the IBM offer, Sun shares had been hammered, hitting a 52-week low of $2.60 on Nov. 24 and under $5 when IBM approached. That compares with the 52-week high of $16.37 last May. Sun could gamble that the bear market is over and that any rebound will take Sun's shares with it. That would be a reverse of what happened at Yahoo, whose rejection of the Microsoft offer was followed shortly by the market's headlong plunge that began in the fall. But the stock market wasn't solely to blame for Sun's troubles in 2008. Its stock fell 79%, compared with the 45% decline of other hardware companies, according to UBS research.
我們下面從Sun的股價走勢來看看這樁交易。在IBM提出報價之前，Sun的股價走勢低迷，去年11月24日觸及了2.60美元的52周低點，IBM接洽的時候還不到5美元。該公司股價在去年5月創(chuàng)下了52周高點16.37美元。Sun可能押注熊市正在結(jié)束，市場反彈也會帶動公司股價回升。如果真是這樣，那就和雅虎的遭遇正好相反；雅虎拒絕微軟報價后不久，市場就從去年秋天開始急劇下滑。不過Sun 2008財年的問題也不能完全怪股市。據(jù)瑞銀(UBS)的研究，Sun的股價下跌了79%，而其他硬件公司的股價跌幅只有45%。
Sun is on its ninth restructuring to cut costs and continues to slice jobs. Analysts don't see another bidder on the horizon, because most of the cost cuts would be in research & development as well as selling, general and administrative expenses, which would include cuts in the sales force and back-office functions of payroll and accounting. The only other companies who could take advantage of such cuts would be other server-makers like Dell and Hewlett-Packard, and neither looks inclined toward a deal.
Sun正在實施第九次重組，計劃削減成本并繼續(xù)裁減員工。分析師們認為該公司難有其他買家，因為其大多數(shù)成本削減都是在研發(fā)、銷售、一般以及行政支出方面，可能會削減銷售部門以及財會等后勤部門的規(guī)模。可能得益于此類削減的其他公司或許是戴爾(Dell)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等其他服務(wù)器生產(chǎn)商，但兩家公司似乎都對此興趣寡然。
UBS analyst Maynard Um on March 18 questioned Sun's ability to keep cutting costs as a standalone company: 'There is a potential restructuring story given relative inefficiencies. We do think IBM would be in a position to take out cost more quickly, however, we expect Sun revs to continue to be pressured in [fiscal year 2009 and fiscal year 2010] given its reliance on high end servers and limited ability to monetize its software.'
瑞銀分析師烏姆(Maynard Um)在3月18日撰文質(zhì)疑Sun作為獨立公司能否繼續(xù)削減成本。他寫道，考慮到目前的相對低效，Sun存在著重組的空間。我們認為IBM有能力更快地削減成本。然而，從Sun對高端服務(wù)器業(yè)務(wù)的依賴以及軟件業(yè)務(wù)的有限盈利能力來看，該公司的收入會在2009財年和2010財年繼續(xù)承壓。
The most sobering perspective on Sun's chances without a deal come from the company's own chief financial officer. According to UBS analyst Um, in February, 'Sun's CFO was careful not to signal a line of sight on 'light at the end of the tunnel.' We believe Sun's top line will continue to be challenging and that the fate of shares rest on cost cutting.' In rejecting IBM's offer, Sun must be more confident than observers in the success of its cutting costs.
目前對Sun不進行交易的前景最清醒的論斷來自該公司首席財務(wù)長。瑞銀分析師烏姆說道，Sun首席財務(wù)長在2月份很謹慎地不愿發(fā)出類似“危機浮現(xiàn)結(jié)束跡象”之類的信號。“我們認為Sun的收入將繼續(xù)面臨困難，股票的命運將取決于成本削減?！本芙^了IBM的報價，Sun必須比觀察人士更加堅信其成本削減能夠獲得成功。