Developing economies have proved resilient to credit market turmoil, but soaring food and energy prices pose a significant threat, says a World Bank study.
In its annual report on global development finance, the bank trimmed its economic growth forecast for developing countries to 6.5 per cent this year from 7.8 per cent last year. While developing countries would continue to expand, “the balance of risks has plainly tilted to the downside”.
The World Bank said many developing countries were imperilled by soaring consumer price inflation. Particularly vulnerable were economies that attracted big private debt inflows, which triggered a rapid expansion of domestic credit, stoking inflationary pressures.
These price increases posed a disproportionate threat to poor people in emerging markets because food and energy costs represented a larger part of a consumer's spending.
The price of food staples in nominal dollar terms has more than doubled since 2005 although the impact is smaller when adjusted for domestic inflation and exchange rates.
“A combination of much higher interest rates and slowing growth would definitely be bad news for emerging markets down the road,” said Uri Dadush, director of international trade at the World Bank. “For these reasons we need to be very, very aware of inflationary implications.”
The World Bank expects global economic growth to slow by a percentage point to 2.7 per cent this year, revised lower from a previous estimate of 3.3 per cent.
Although developing economies will expand more robustly, this is expected to moderate as tighter credit slows private capital flows to emerging markets.
These capital flows reached a record 7.3 per cent of gross domestic product, or $1,030bn, last year, helped in part by the rapid establishment of foreign bank branches in developing countries, but this figure is expected to drop to 5 per cent or $850bn in 2009.
Under the bank's worst-case scenario, capital flows to developing countries could decline more abruptly, to 3.5 per cent of GDP ($550bn). Countries dependent on international interbank markets for funding, including Hungary, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia, were most vulnerable to external financial shocks.
世界銀行：窮國面臨通脹威脅
世界銀行(World Bank)的一份研究表明，發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體已證明了自己對信貸市場危機的承受力，但不斷高漲的食品和能源價格將給它們帶來重大威脅。
在一份關(guān)于全球開發(fā)金融的年度報告中，世界銀行將其對發(fā)展中國家今年的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期從去年的7.8%下調(diào)至6.5%。隨著發(fā)展中國家繼續(xù)擴張發(fā)展，“風(fēng)險的天平已平緩地偏向下降趨勢”。
世界銀行表示，許多發(fā)展中國家遭遇不斷高漲的消費品價格通脹。尤為脆弱的是那些吸引了大量私人債務(wù)流入的經(jīng)濟體，這將觸發(fā)其國內(nèi)信貸市場的急劇膨脹，加劇通脹壓力。
對新興市場的窮人而言，由于食品和能源價格占據(jù)了其消費支出的更大一部分，這些價格上漲給他們帶來了不成比例的威脅。
以名義美元計算，2005年以來，主食價格已漲了一倍多，雖然按國內(nèi)通脹和匯率調(diào)整后，影響會小一些。
“利率上升和經(jīng)濟增長放緩并存，對新興市場而言絕對是壞消息，”世界銀行國際貿(mào)易業(yè)務(wù)負責(zé)人尤里?達杜什(Uri Dadush)稱?！俺鲇谶@些原因，我們必須對通脹的內(nèi)在含義保持非常高度的清醒?！?BR> 世界銀行預(yù)計，今年的全球經(jīng)濟增長速度將下降一個百分點，至2.7%，而原先預(yù)計為3.3%。
雖然發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體的增長將會相對強勁，但隨著更為緊縮的信貸環(huán)境減緩了私人資本流向新興市場的速度，預(yù)計它們的經(jīng)濟增速將會放慢。
去年，這些資本流動達到1.03萬億美元，約合發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的7.3%，創(chuàng)下歷史新高。部分原因是外資銀行在發(fā)展中國家迅速開張分行。但該數(shù)值預(yù)計將在2009年下跌至5%（合8500億美元）。
按照世界銀行的最壞預(yù)期，流向發(fā)展中國家的資本將更為急劇下降，低至GDP的3.5%（合5500億美元）。那些依賴國際銀行間市場來募集資金的國家，包括匈牙利、土耳其、烏克蘭和俄羅斯，將最容易受到外部金融危機打擊。
In its annual report on global development finance, the bank trimmed its economic growth forecast for developing countries to 6.5 per cent this year from 7.8 per cent last year. While developing countries would continue to expand, “the balance of risks has plainly tilted to the downside”.
The World Bank said many developing countries were imperilled by soaring consumer price inflation. Particularly vulnerable were economies that attracted big private debt inflows, which triggered a rapid expansion of domestic credit, stoking inflationary pressures.
These price increases posed a disproportionate threat to poor people in emerging markets because food and energy costs represented a larger part of a consumer's spending.
The price of food staples in nominal dollar terms has more than doubled since 2005 although the impact is smaller when adjusted for domestic inflation and exchange rates.
“A combination of much higher interest rates and slowing growth would definitely be bad news for emerging markets down the road,” said Uri Dadush, director of international trade at the World Bank. “For these reasons we need to be very, very aware of inflationary implications.”
The World Bank expects global economic growth to slow by a percentage point to 2.7 per cent this year, revised lower from a previous estimate of 3.3 per cent.
Although developing economies will expand more robustly, this is expected to moderate as tighter credit slows private capital flows to emerging markets.
These capital flows reached a record 7.3 per cent of gross domestic product, or $1,030bn, last year, helped in part by the rapid establishment of foreign bank branches in developing countries, but this figure is expected to drop to 5 per cent or $850bn in 2009.
Under the bank's worst-case scenario, capital flows to developing countries could decline more abruptly, to 3.5 per cent of GDP ($550bn). Countries dependent on international interbank markets for funding, including Hungary, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia, were most vulnerable to external financial shocks.
世界銀行：窮國面臨通脹威脅
世界銀行(World Bank)的一份研究表明，發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體已證明了自己對信貸市場危機的承受力，但不斷高漲的食品和能源價格將給它們帶來重大威脅。
在一份關(guān)于全球開發(fā)金融的年度報告中，世界銀行將其對發(fā)展中國家今年的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期從去年的7.8%下調(diào)至6.5%。隨著發(fā)展中國家繼續(xù)擴張發(fā)展，“風(fēng)險的天平已平緩地偏向下降趨勢”。
世界銀行表示，許多發(fā)展中國家遭遇不斷高漲的消費品價格通脹。尤為脆弱的是那些吸引了大量私人債務(wù)流入的經(jīng)濟體，這將觸發(fā)其國內(nèi)信貸市場的急劇膨脹，加劇通脹壓力。
對新興市場的窮人而言，由于食品和能源價格占據(jù)了其消費支出的更大一部分，這些價格上漲給他們帶來了不成比例的威脅。
以名義美元計算，2005年以來，主食價格已漲了一倍多，雖然按國內(nèi)通脹和匯率調(diào)整后，影響會小一些。
“利率上升和經(jīng)濟增長放緩并存，對新興市場而言絕對是壞消息，”世界銀行國際貿(mào)易業(yè)務(wù)負責(zé)人尤里?達杜什(Uri Dadush)稱?！俺鲇谶@些原因，我們必須對通脹的內(nèi)在含義保持非常高度的清醒?！?BR> 世界銀行預(yù)計，今年的全球經(jīng)濟增長速度將下降一個百分點，至2.7%，而原先預(yù)計為3.3%。
雖然發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體的增長將會相對強勁，但隨著更為緊縮的信貸環(huán)境減緩了私人資本流向新興市場的速度，預(yù)計它們的經(jīng)濟增速將會放慢。
去年，這些資本流動達到1.03萬億美元，約合發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟體國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的7.3%，創(chuàng)下歷史新高。部分原因是外資銀行在發(fā)展中國家迅速開張分行。但該數(shù)值預(yù)計將在2009年下跌至5%（合8500億美元）。
按照世界銀行的最壞預(yù)期，流向發(fā)展中國家的資本將更為急劇下降，低至GDP的3.5%（合5500億美元）。那些依賴國際銀行間市場來募集資金的國家，包括匈牙利、土耳其、烏克蘭和俄羅斯，將最容易受到外部金融危機打擊。