The International Monetary Fund will mark down this year's anticipated growth by half a percentage point because of a change in the way national economies are measured.
Earlier this week, the World Bank, the IMF's sister institution, recalculated the way it computes economic-growth statistics based on a far more thorough analysis of prices in 146 nations. By revising so-called purchasing power parity statistics, the bank sought a better way to compare wealth and poverty among nations. The stats take into account the different cost of goods and services in different countries -- for instance, a haircut costs a lot less in Beijing than Boston.
The recalculations are the beginning of what is likely to be a makeover of the official portrait of the global economy. IMF rules require it to use World Bank purchasing-power statistics. As a result, Simon Johnson, the IMF's chief economist, said the IMF's October forecast that the world economy would grow 5.2% now translates into growth of 4.7% -- even though no individual country's economy has grown more slowly.
The final number likely will be lower still to reflect subprime-mortgage turmoil and the global credit crunch. The IMF will release its next formal forecast of global growth at the end of next month.
Mr. Johnson says the basic trends in global economic growth remain true despite the statistical change. China continues to be the single biggest driver of global growth, accounting for 27% of the growth this year. India's contribution is about 9%.
But the statistics temper somewhat the view of the economic power of big emerging economies, he said. 'China has been driving a lot of people's interpretation of how well the world economy is doing,' he said. 'We just haven't been doing as well as we thought.'
Based on the new statistics, the World Bank earlier this week said China's and India's economies were smaller than previously estimated, and their share of the world economic might diminished. Under the old purchasing power parity statistics, China accounted for 14.8% of global economic output and India 6.3%. Under the new figures, China's share for 2005 was reduced to 9.7% and India's to 4.3%. The U.S. share, meanwhile, jumped to 22.5% from 20.8%, suggesting a bigger gap than previously estimated between the world's economic powers and emerging economies.
The statistical changes will have real-life consequences. The IMF now is recalculating the voting shares of its members with an eye to awarding big developing nations a larger share. The outcome of that effort is more in doubt if some big developing nations have smaller economies than previously estimated.
IMF and World Bank loan programs also depend on accurate national counts of poverty to see how best to construct projects. The new statistics will scramble poverty counts. A World Bank spokesman said new poverty numbers will be released in a few months.
因?qū)Ω鲊?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的計(jì)算方法發(fā)生調(diào)整，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)對(duì)今年的全球增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期將下調(diào)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
本周早些時(shí)候，IMF的姊妹機(jī)構(gòu)世界銀行(World Bank)在對(duì)146個(gè)國(guó)家的物價(jià)進(jìn)行了更透徹的分析之后決定，調(diào)整其對(duì)各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)幅度的計(jì)算方式。該行修訂了所謂的購(gòu)買力平價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，以求更合理地比較各國(guó)間的貧富程度。新的統(tǒng)計(jì)方法考慮到了不同國(guó)家各類商品和服務(wù)的不同價(jià)格，比如，在北京理發(fā)的價(jià)格就比在波士頓便宜很多。
這次重新計(jì)算之后，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的官方描述將有可能因此發(fā)生改變。該組織首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家西蒙•約翰遜(Simon Johnson)表示，IMF的章程規(guī)定其要采用世行的購(gòu)買力數(shù)據(jù)，因此，IMF十月份對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)作出的5.2%的預(yù)測(cè)值將調(diào)整為4.7%，雖然其中各個(gè)國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)率均未作向下調(diào)整?？紤]到次貸風(fēng)波及全球信貸危機(jī)的影響，最終數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)更低。新的正式預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)將在下個(gè)月末公布。
約翰遜說(shuō)，雖然預(yù)測(cè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字有所調(diào)整，但全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基本趨勢(shì)并未改變。中國(guó)仍將是推動(dòng)全球增長(zhǎng)的的單一經(jīng)濟(jì)體，對(duì)今年全球增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率是27%，印度的貢獻(xiàn)率在9%左右。
不過(guò)他說(shuō)，從統(tǒng)計(jì)得到的部分新興經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力狀況將有所削弱。受中國(guó)高速發(fā)展的鼓舞，人們以為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)也同樣一片大好。但實(shí)際情況并非如此。
根據(jù)新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，世界銀行本周早些時(shí)候說(shuō)，中國(guó)和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模沒有以前估計(jì)的那么大，它們?cè)谌蚪?jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出中所占的比例可能也要相應(yīng)下調(diào)。根據(jù)以前的購(gòu)買力平價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，中國(guó)和印度的比例分別是14.8%和6.3%，而根據(jù)對(duì)2005年產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果，這組數(shù)字分別是9.7%和4.3%。美國(guó)所占的份額則從原來(lái)的20.8%上升到22.5%，顯示世界經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國(guó)與新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的差距比人們以前認(rèn)為的要大。
統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字的改變將對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)世界產(chǎn)生一定的影響。IMF原本正在重新計(jì)算成員國(guó)的投票權(quán)，以給予發(fā)展中國(guó)家更大的發(fā)言權(quán)，但如果新興經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模并不像人們?cè)瓉?lái)以為的那么大，則這一努力的意義將要打個(gè)問號(hào)。
IMF和世界銀行的貸款項(xiàng)目也將取決于對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家貧困情況的精確計(jì)算，以確定如何制定項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃。新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字將使貧困統(tǒng)計(jì)變得復(fù)雜化。世行一位發(fā)言人表示，新的貧困數(shù)字要到幾個(gè)月后才能發(fā)布。
Earlier this week, the World Bank, the IMF's sister institution, recalculated the way it computes economic-growth statistics based on a far more thorough analysis of prices in 146 nations. By revising so-called purchasing power parity statistics, the bank sought a better way to compare wealth and poverty among nations. The stats take into account the different cost of goods and services in different countries -- for instance, a haircut costs a lot less in Beijing than Boston.
The recalculations are the beginning of what is likely to be a makeover of the official portrait of the global economy. IMF rules require it to use World Bank purchasing-power statistics. As a result, Simon Johnson, the IMF's chief economist, said the IMF's October forecast that the world economy would grow 5.2% now translates into growth of 4.7% -- even though no individual country's economy has grown more slowly.
The final number likely will be lower still to reflect subprime-mortgage turmoil and the global credit crunch. The IMF will release its next formal forecast of global growth at the end of next month.
Mr. Johnson says the basic trends in global economic growth remain true despite the statistical change. China continues to be the single biggest driver of global growth, accounting for 27% of the growth this year. India's contribution is about 9%.
But the statistics temper somewhat the view of the economic power of big emerging economies, he said. 'China has been driving a lot of people's interpretation of how well the world economy is doing,' he said. 'We just haven't been doing as well as we thought.'
Based on the new statistics, the World Bank earlier this week said China's and India's economies were smaller than previously estimated, and their share of the world economic might diminished. Under the old purchasing power parity statistics, China accounted for 14.8% of global economic output and India 6.3%. Under the new figures, China's share for 2005 was reduced to 9.7% and India's to 4.3%. The U.S. share, meanwhile, jumped to 22.5% from 20.8%, suggesting a bigger gap than previously estimated between the world's economic powers and emerging economies.
The statistical changes will have real-life consequences. The IMF now is recalculating the voting shares of its members with an eye to awarding big developing nations a larger share. The outcome of that effort is more in doubt if some big developing nations have smaller economies than previously estimated.
IMF and World Bank loan programs also depend on accurate national counts of poverty to see how best to construct projects. The new statistics will scramble poverty counts. A World Bank spokesman said new poverty numbers will be released in a few months.
因?qū)Ω鲊?guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的計(jì)算方法發(fā)生調(diào)整，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)對(duì)今年的全球增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期將下調(diào)0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。
本周早些時(shí)候，IMF的姊妹機(jī)構(gòu)世界銀行(World Bank)在對(duì)146個(gè)國(guó)家的物價(jià)進(jìn)行了更透徹的分析之后決定，調(diào)整其對(duì)各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)幅度的計(jì)算方式。該行修訂了所謂的購(gòu)買力平價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法，以求更合理地比較各國(guó)間的貧富程度。新的統(tǒng)計(jì)方法考慮到了不同國(guó)家各類商品和服務(wù)的不同價(jià)格，比如，在北京理發(fā)的價(jià)格就比在波士頓便宜很多。
這次重新計(jì)算之后，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的官方描述將有可能因此發(fā)生改變。該組織首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家西蒙•約翰遜(Simon Johnson)表示，IMF的章程規(guī)定其要采用世行的購(gòu)買力數(shù)據(jù)，因此，IMF十月份對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)作出的5.2%的預(yù)測(cè)值將調(diào)整為4.7%，雖然其中各個(gè)國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)率均未作向下調(diào)整?？紤]到次貸風(fēng)波及全球信貸危機(jī)的影響，最終數(shù)據(jù)可能會(huì)更低。新的正式預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)將在下個(gè)月末公布。
約翰遜說(shuō)，雖然預(yù)測(cè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字有所調(diào)整，但全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的基本趨勢(shì)并未改變。中國(guó)仍將是推動(dòng)全球增長(zhǎng)的的單一經(jīng)濟(jì)體，對(duì)今年全球增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率是27%，印度的貢獻(xiàn)率在9%左右。
不過(guò)他說(shuō)，從統(tǒng)計(jì)得到的部分新興經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力狀況將有所削弱。受中國(guó)高速發(fā)展的鼓舞，人們以為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)也同樣一片大好。但實(shí)際情況并非如此。
根據(jù)新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，世界銀行本周早些時(shí)候說(shuō)，中國(guó)和印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模沒有以前估計(jì)的那么大，它們?cè)谌蚪?jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出中所占的比例可能也要相應(yīng)下調(diào)。根據(jù)以前的購(gòu)買力平價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字，中國(guó)和印度的比例分別是14.8%和6.3%，而根據(jù)對(duì)2005年產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)的最新統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果，這組數(shù)字分別是9.7%和4.3%。美國(guó)所占的份額則從原來(lái)的20.8%上升到22.5%，顯示世界經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國(guó)與新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的差距比人們以前認(rèn)為的要大。
統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字的改變將對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)世界產(chǎn)生一定的影響。IMF原本正在重新計(jì)算成員國(guó)的投票權(quán)，以給予發(fā)展中國(guó)家更大的發(fā)言權(quán)，但如果新興經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模并不像人們?cè)瓉?lái)以為的那么大，則這一努力的意義將要打個(gè)問號(hào)。
IMF和世界銀行的貸款項(xiàng)目也將取決于對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家貧困情況的精確計(jì)算，以確定如何制定項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃。新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字將使貧困統(tǒng)計(jì)變得復(fù)雜化。世行一位發(fā)言人表示，新的貧困數(shù)字要到幾個(gè)月后才能發(fā)布。