英文： China market-boosting measures seen offset by faster fund-raising - analyst
The motives behind apparent government attempts to stimulate the domestic stock market remain obscure, but it is clear that the government is not just aiming to generate a short-term speculative rally, DBS Securities analyst Wu Jian said.
Consequently, it is likely that the recent implementation of fresh market-boosting measures will quickly be followed by a marked acceleration in the pace of fund-raising, Wu said.
Share prices in both Shanghai and Shenzhen are sharply higher today on further signs that the government is stepping up its efforts to boost the market.
At 2.21 pm, the Shanghai A-share index was up 145.84 points to 1,776.86, while the B-share index was up 13.44 points at 155.19. The Shenzhen A-share sub-index was up 320.26 points at 3,839.30, while the B-share sub-index was up 132.54 points at 1,460.46.
Shares gained strongly on Friday following publication of an editorial in the official China Securities Journal which was apparently aimed at boosting investor confidence.
This has since been followed by the publication of a similar editorial on Saturday, as well as the publication of reports that the government has given up a plan to sell off state shares via the stock market and the publication of provisional regulations raising the threshold for listed companies seeking to launch additional share offers.
All of these actions appeared to confirm rumours that the government is implementing a ten-point package of market-boosting measures.
Wu said he believes retail investors have accounted for most of the buying since Friday, while institutions are likely to have been more sceptical about the government's motives.
He said the government has effectively made a 180-degree turn on its policy towards the market, and although there is widespread speculation that the motive is to prevent a market correction in the run-up to the Communist Party's 16th Congress -- due sometime this autumn -- the actual motive may be to boost the market's ability to channel funds to cash-strapped state firms.
On one hand, the government is keen for the market to provide funds to state firms in order to help these enterprises "get out of difficulties".
On the other, the government is keen for securities investors to take over burdens currently being carried by the state commercial banks.
The government wants to achieve a rapid reduction in the commercial banks' non-performing loans, and an acceleration in the pace of share offers will help the country reach this target.
Wu noted in particular that several Hong Kong-listed companies, including PetroChina, China Unicom and China Southern Airlines are slated to launch major A-share offers in the second half of the year.
He said institutions are likely to have realised that the government's motive is not to create an environment for speculative gains.
Although share prices are likely to trend higher, shares are unlikely to see the kind of overheating that usually follows major government attempts to ramp up share prices, he said..
中文：國(guó)內(nèi)*托市動(dòng)機(jī)或?yàn)槠髽I(yè)加速集資鋪路
發(fā)展證券分析員吳建表示, *的明顯托市行動(dòng), 背后真正動(dòng) 機(jī)仍耐人尋味, 不過(guò)可以肯定的, 是*的目的不限于表面上刺激股市短線投機(jī)反彈。故 預(yù)料宣布停止減持國(guó)有股之后, 企業(yè)集資步伐將會(huì)顯著加快。
吳建表示, 相信上周五及今日股價(jià)急升, 很大程度上是散戶受*托市利好消息刺激而搶 入市所推動(dòng), 而機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)*的托市動(dòng)機(jī)應(yīng)仍存有疑慮。 他指出, *在股市政策上突然作出180度改變, 盡管市場(chǎng)廣泛認(rèn)為*的動(dòng)機(jī)是阻止大 市在今秋中共「十六大」召開(kāi)前出現(xiàn)大調(diào)整, 但真正動(dòng)機(jī)可能是增強(qiáng)股市為「缺水」國(guó)企 集資的功能。
吳建指, 政府既極需利用市場(chǎng)為國(guó)企集資解困, 亦迫切需要證券投資者來(lái)接轉(zhuǎn)國(guó)營(yíng)銀行現(xiàn) 時(shí)的重?fù)?dān), 迅速減輕商業(yè)銀行的不良貸款, 而加速股份發(fā)行速度將有助于*達(dá)成此等目標(biāo)。
他續(xù)稱, 大戶很可能已意識(shí)到*的托市動(dòng)機(jī)不是要為投機(jī)性反彈創(chuàng)造環(huán)境, 故預(yù)期今次 股價(jià)不大可能會(huì)像過(guò)往重大政策出臺(tái)后那樣狂升不止。
The motives behind apparent government attempts to stimulate the domestic stock market remain obscure, but it is clear that the government is not just aiming to generate a short-term speculative rally, DBS Securities analyst Wu Jian said.
Consequently, it is likely that the recent implementation of fresh market-boosting measures will quickly be followed by a marked acceleration in the pace of fund-raising, Wu said.
Share prices in both Shanghai and Shenzhen are sharply higher today on further signs that the government is stepping up its efforts to boost the market.
At 2.21 pm, the Shanghai A-share index was up 145.84 points to 1,776.86, while the B-share index was up 13.44 points at 155.19. The Shenzhen A-share sub-index was up 320.26 points at 3,839.30, while the B-share sub-index was up 132.54 points at 1,460.46.
Shares gained strongly on Friday following publication of an editorial in the official China Securities Journal which was apparently aimed at boosting investor confidence.
This has since been followed by the publication of a similar editorial on Saturday, as well as the publication of reports that the government has given up a plan to sell off state shares via the stock market and the publication of provisional regulations raising the threshold for listed companies seeking to launch additional share offers.
All of these actions appeared to confirm rumours that the government is implementing a ten-point package of market-boosting measures.
Wu said he believes retail investors have accounted for most of the buying since Friday, while institutions are likely to have been more sceptical about the government's motives.
He said the government has effectively made a 180-degree turn on its policy towards the market, and although there is widespread speculation that the motive is to prevent a market correction in the run-up to the Communist Party's 16th Congress -- due sometime this autumn -- the actual motive may be to boost the market's ability to channel funds to cash-strapped state firms.
On one hand, the government is keen for the market to provide funds to state firms in order to help these enterprises "get out of difficulties".
On the other, the government is keen for securities investors to take over burdens currently being carried by the state commercial banks.
The government wants to achieve a rapid reduction in the commercial banks' non-performing loans, and an acceleration in the pace of share offers will help the country reach this target.
Wu noted in particular that several Hong Kong-listed companies, including PetroChina, China Unicom and China Southern Airlines are slated to launch major A-share offers in the second half of the year.
He said institutions are likely to have realised that the government's motive is not to create an environment for speculative gains.
Although share prices are likely to trend higher, shares are unlikely to see the kind of overheating that usually follows major government attempts to ramp up share prices, he said..
中文：國(guó)內(nèi)*托市動(dòng)機(jī)或?yàn)槠髽I(yè)加速集資鋪路
發(fā)展證券分析員吳建表示, *的明顯托市行動(dòng), 背后真正動(dòng) 機(jī)仍耐人尋味, 不過(guò)可以肯定的, 是*的目的不限于表面上刺激股市短線投機(jī)反彈。故 預(yù)料宣布停止減持國(guó)有股之后, 企業(yè)集資步伐將會(huì)顯著加快。
吳建表示, 相信上周五及今日股價(jià)急升, 很大程度上是散戶受*托市利好消息刺激而搶 入市所推動(dòng), 而機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)*的托市動(dòng)機(jī)應(yīng)仍存有疑慮。 他指出, *在股市政策上突然作出180度改變, 盡管市場(chǎng)廣泛認(rèn)為*的動(dòng)機(jī)是阻止大 市在今秋中共「十六大」召開(kāi)前出現(xiàn)大調(diào)整, 但真正動(dòng)機(jī)可能是增強(qiáng)股市為「缺水」國(guó)企 集資的功能。
吳建指, 政府既極需利用市場(chǎng)為國(guó)企集資解困, 亦迫切需要證券投資者來(lái)接轉(zhuǎn)國(guó)營(yíng)銀行現(xiàn) 時(shí)的重?fù)?dān), 迅速減輕商業(yè)銀行的不良貸款, 而加速股份發(fā)行速度將有助于*達(dá)成此等目標(biāo)。
他續(xù)稱, 大戶很可能已意識(shí)到*的托市動(dòng)機(jī)不是要為投機(jī)性反彈創(chuàng)造環(huán)境, 故預(yù)期今次 股價(jià)不大可能會(huì)像過(guò)往重大政策出臺(tái)后那樣狂升不止。