While the SARS outbreak seems to have peaked outside China, its economic effects continue to ripple across Asia and beyond
中國以外的地區(qū)的SARS疫情似乎已經(jīng)進(jìn)入高峰平臺(tái)區(qū)，而它帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響仍在亞洲及其周邊地區(qū)激起漣漪。
THERE has been good news this week about SARS, the fatal, pneumonia-like respiratory disease that emerged to world attention last month. It appears that the spread of the disease has been contained in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore and the Canadian city of Toronto—the first places outside mainland China to be affected. The World Health Organisation has declared America, Britain and India free of SARS. However, while there is cause for hope that the global spread of the disease has been checked, its effects on economies and business activities, especially in Asia, are only now becoming apparent. Hong Kong's monthly purchasing managers' index, released on May 2nd, showed a plunge, with the index falling from 48.4 in March to 38.1 in April, the worst figure since the survey began five years ago. Since any figure below 50 indicates a shrinking economy, this shows that Hong Kong is suffering a severe downturn.
上個(gè)月引起世界關(guān)注的致命類肺炎呼吸道疾病——SARS——在本周似乎有一些好消息。目前看來，疾病的蔓延區(qū)域包括了香港、越南、新加坡和加拿大城市多倫多（中國大陸以外受到侵襲的首批地區(qū)）。世界衛(wèi)生組織宣布美國、英國和印度無SARS蔓延的侵?jǐn)_。盡管如此，當(dāng)我們認(rèn)為疾病的蔓延被控制住的時(shí)候，它所帶來的對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和商業(yè)活動(dòng)（尤其是對(duì)亞洲）的影響才初現(xiàn)頭角。5月2日于香港出版的“月度采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)”反映出市場(chǎng)的低迷：指數(shù)從三月的48.4跌至四月的38.1，這是五年來最糟的月評(píng)。又因凡指數(shù)在50以下，都代表了經(jīng)濟(jì)緊縮，此次的數(shù)據(jù)更代表了香港正在經(jīng)歷一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期。
The effect of SARS on Asia’s important travel and tourism industries has been dramatic[顯著的]. More than 40% of this week's scheduled flights[預(yù)定航班] into Hong Kong were cancelled, for example. Cathay Pacific[香港國泰航空], Hong Kong's flag-carrier[官方航空公司], is understood to be losing $3m per day. Singapore Airlines has asked all of its 6,600 cabin crew members[客艙乘務(wù)員] to take unpaid leave, and has cut capacity[運(yùn)力] to just 29% of normal levels. Tourist arrivals in Singapore are down by more than two-thirds. Singapore announced on May 1st that it was cancelling two planned technology trade fairs. The next day, Taiwan announced the postponement of this year's Computex—the world's third-largest computer-trade show—until later in the year. Even Estée Lauder, an American cosmetics company[化妝品公司], has said that its sales this year will be dented[削弱] by SARS, due to the impact on sales to domestic consumers[本土客戶] in Hong Kong and Singapore and the fall in the number of tourists visiting airport duty-free outlets[機(jī)場(chǎng)免稅出口].
IATA, the airline industry's trade organisation, posts news on the effects of SARS. The Asia Recovery Information Centre[亞洲復(fù)蘇信息中心] monitors economic news and the effects of SARS in Asian countries. See also the Association of South-East Asian Nations[東盟]. The WHO gives information and updates on SARS.
The decline[下降] in travel has already had a knock-on effect[撞擊效果] on demand for fuel. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the oil-producers' cartel[企業(yè)聯(lián)盟], estimates that SARS has reduced Asian oil demand by 300,000 barrels per day. Companies with headquarters far from Asia are also being affected. Both American Airlines and United Airlines have blamed SARS, in part, for recent weak demand. Lufthansa[德國漢莎航空], which said that demand on its Asian routes[亞洲航線] has fallen by as much as 85% thanks to SARS, has said it will ground 15 more planes and reduce working hours for ground staff. British Airways’ chief executive[首席執(zhí)行官], Rod Eddington, has said that the combination of SARS, the war in Iraq and a weak economic outlook mean that the global airline industry is facing its toughest crisis in living memory. Airbus, a maker of commercial jets, has warned that its target of delivering 300 planes this year now carries “a higher degree of risk”.
Like Estée Lauder, luxury-goods[奢華品] companies such as Bulgari, an Italian jeweller, and Burberry, a British fashion label, have suffered falls in sales. Bulgari said its sales in status-conscious Hong Kong had “fallen aggressively, in double digits” over the past few weeks. Brunswick, an American maker of pleasure boats, has narrowed its profit forecast to the lower end of the range, saying that SARS clouded the economic outlook. Sales of more everyday items are also being hit, as Asian consumers stay at home. McDonald's, an American fast-food chain has said that fear of SARS, and the Iraqi war, have dented sales in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Philips and Ericsson, two European consumer-electronics companies, have also announced a decline in sales. European firms that sell to other businesses are being hurt too: JC Decaux, an outdoor-advertising company, and WPP, an advertising and marketing conglomerate, have said that SARS is having an effect, thanks to cancelled travel and conferences, though WPP said the effect was difficult to quantify.
It is tough enough to estimate how bad will be the impact of SARS on the developed and open economies of Singapore and Hong Kong; but it is harder still to get to grips[了解] with the impact on China, which is notoriously[臭名遠(yuǎn)揚(yáng)的] secretive[遮遮掩掩]. After finally admitting that the true scale[比例] of its SARS outbreak had been deliberately[故意地] hidden, and that in fact the disease was still spreading quickly, the Chinese authorities are now doing all in their power to contain the disease, from establishing road-blocks to stop people leaving Beijing, to the curtailment[縮短] of the traditional week-long holiday that should have begun on May 1st.
What is known of the economic impact in China is that five-star hotels in Beijing are registering occupancy rates[入住率] of around 20%. Air travel within the country has collapsed[崩潰], thanks to government exhortations[勸說] to stay home, and people’s own worries about SARS. Acer, a Taiwanese personal-computer maker, is postponing plans to make its notebook computers in China. And in all sorts of businesses, foreign companies have barred[受阻的] travel to China, at best postponing and at worst cancelling planned purchases and investment.
Governments are doing their best to offset[彌補(bǔ)] the effects of the disease. China has spent $241m on various measures, and more could follow; Taiwan has devoted $1.4 billion to its efforts, Hong Kong has launched a $1.5 billion spending spree[消費(fèi)狂潮], including a “We love HK” campaign[活動(dòng)] to get its citizens out and about again; and on May 2nd South Korea's finance minister, Kim Jin-pyo, said he was drawing up a supplementary budget[追加預(yù)算] of at least $1.9 billion to help the country overcome the effects of SARS on its exports. Singapore has spent a more modest[節(jié)制的] $129m, thanks to the government’s fear that money spent in such an open economy merely seeps overseas[滲出海外]. Even so, economists at the World Bank reckon[估算] that the disease may cost Asia $15 billion this year. With the global economy already weak, SARS is an affliction[苦惱] the region could have done without.
中國以外的地區(qū)的SARS疫情似乎已經(jīng)進(jìn)入高峰平臺(tái)區(qū)，而它帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響仍在亞洲及其周邊地區(qū)激起漣漪。
THERE has been good news this week about SARS, the fatal, pneumonia-like respiratory disease that emerged to world attention last month. It appears that the spread of the disease has been contained in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Singapore and the Canadian city of Toronto—the first places outside mainland China to be affected. The World Health Organisation has declared America, Britain and India free of SARS. However, while there is cause for hope that the global spread of the disease has been checked, its effects on economies and business activities, especially in Asia, are only now becoming apparent. Hong Kong's monthly purchasing managers' index, released on May 2nd, showed a plunge, with the index falling from 48.4 in March to 38.1 in April, the worst figure since the survey began five years ago. Since any figure below 50 indicates a shrinking economy, this shows that Hong Kong is suffering a severe downturn.
上個(gè)月引起世界關(guān)注的致命類肺炎呼吸道疾病——SARS——在本周似乎有一些好消息。目前看來，疾病的蔓延區(qū)域包括了香港、越南、新加坡和加拿大城市多倫多（中國大陸以外受到侵襲的首批地區(qū)）。世界衛(wèi)生組織宣布美國、英國和印度無SARS蔓延的侵?jǐn)_。盡管如此，當(dāng)我們認(rèn)為疾病的蔓延被控制住的時(shí)候，它所帶來的對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和商業(yè)活動(dòng)（尤其是對(duì)亞洲）的影響才初現(xiàn)頭角。5月2日于香港出版的“月度采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)”反映出市場(chǎng)的低迷：指數(shù)從三月的48.4跌至四月的38.1，這是五年來最糟的月評(píng)。又因凡指數(shù)在50以下，都代表了經(jīng)濟(jì)緊縮，此次的數(shù)據(jù)更代表了香港正在經(jīng)歷一個(gè)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期。
The effect of SARS on Asia’s important travel and tourism industries has been dramatic[顯著的]. More than 40% of this week's scheduled flights[預(yù)定航班] into Hong Kong were cancelled, for example. Cathay Pacific[香港國泰航空], Hong Kong's flag-carrier[官方航空公司], is understood to be losing $3m per day. Singapore Airlines has asked all of its 6,600 cabin crew members[客艙乘務(wù)員] to take unpaid leave, and has cut capacity[運(yùn)力] to just 29% of normal levels. Tourist arrivals in Singapore are down by more than two-thirds. Singapore announced on May 1st that it was cancelling two planned technology trade fairs. The next day, Taiwan announced the postponement of this year's Computex—the world's third-largest computer-trade show—until later in the year. Even Estée Lauder, an American cosmetics company[化妝品公司], has said that its sales this year will be dented[削弱] by SARS, due to the impact on sales to domestic consumers[本土客戶] in Hong Kong and Singapore and the fall in the number of tourists visiting airport duty-free outlets[機(jī)場(chǎng)免稅出口].
IATA, the airline industry's trade organisation, posts news on the effects of SARS. The Asia Recovery Information Centre[亞洲復(fù)蘇信息中心] monitors economic news and the effects of SARS in Asian countries. See also the Association of South-East Asian Nations[東盟]. The WHO gives information and updates on SARS.
The decline[下降] in travel has already had a knock-on effect[撞擊效果] on demand for fuel. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the oil-producers' cartel[企業(yè)聯(lián)盟], estimates that SARS has reduced Asian oil demand by 300,000 barrels per day. Companies with headquarters far from Asia are also being affected. Both American Airlines and United Airlines have blamed SARS, in part, for recent weak demand. Lufthansa[德國漢莎航空], which said that demand on its Asian routes[亞洲航線] has fallen by as much as 85% thanks to SARS, has said it will ground 15 more planes and reduce working hours for ground staff. British Airways’ chief executive[首席執(zhí)行官], Rod Eddington, has said that the combination of SARS, the war in Iraq and a weak economic outlook mean that the global airline industry is facing its toughest crisis in living memory. Airbus, a maker of commercial jets, has warned that its target of delivering 300 planes this year now carries “a higher degree of risk”.
Like Estée Lauder, luxury-goods[奢華品] companies such as Bulgari, an Italian jeweller, and Burberry, a British fashion label, have suffered falls in sales. Bulgari said its sales in status-conscious Hong Kong had “fallen aggressively, in double digits” over the past few weeks. Brunswick, an American maker of pleasure boats, has narrowed its profit forecast to the lower end of the range, saying that SARS clouded the economic outlook. Sales of more everyday items are also being hit, as Asian consumers stay at home. McDonald's, an American fast-food chain has said that fear of SARS, and the Iraqi war, have dented sales in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Philips and Ericsson, two European consumer-electronics companies, have also announced a decline in sales. European firms that sell to other businesses are being hurt too: JC Decaux, an outdoor-advertising company, and WPP, an advertising and marketing conglomerate, have said that SARS is having an effect, thanks to cancelled travel and conferences, though WPP said the effect was difficult to quantify.
It is tough enough to estimate how bad will be the impact of SARS on the developed and open economies of Singapore and Hong Kong; but it is harder still to get to grips[了解] with the impact on China, which is notoriously[臭名遠(yuǎn)揚(yáng)的] secretive[遮遮掩掩]. After finally admitting that the true scale[比例] of its SARS outbreak had been deliberately[故意地] hidden, and that in fact the disease was still spreading quickly, the Chinese authorities are now doing all in their power to contain the disease, from establishing road-blocks to stop people leaving Beijing, to the curtailment[縮短] of the traditional week-long holiday that should have begun on May 1st.
What is known of the economic impact in China is that five-star hotels in Beijing are registering occupancy rates[入住率] of around 20%. Air travel within the country has collapsed[崩潰], thanks to government exhortations[勸說] to stay home, and people’s own worries about SARS. Acer, a Taiwanese personal-computer maker, is postponing plans to make its notebook computers in China. And in all sorts of businesses, foreign companies have barred[受阻的] travel to China, at best postponing and at worst cancelling planned purchases and investment.
Governments are doing their best to offset[彌補(bǔ)] the effects of the disease. China has spent $241m on various measures, and more could follow; Taiwan has devoted $1.4 billion to its efforts, Hong Kong has launched a $1.5 billion spending spree[消費(fèi)狂潮], including a “We love HK” campaign[活動(dòng)] to get its citizens out and about again; and on May 2nd South Korea's finance minister, Kim Jin-pyo, said he was drawing up a supplementary budget[追加預(yù)算] of at least $1.9 billion to help the country overcome the effects of SARS on its exports. Singapore has spent a more modest[節(jié)制的] $129m, thanks to the government’s fear that money spent in such an open economy merely seeps overseas[滲出海外]. Even so, economists at the World Bank reckon[估算] that the disease may cost Asia $15 billion this year. With the global economy already weak, SARS is an affliction[苦惱] the region could have done without.