Text 5
Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes”, makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July . This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
It is also less than most forecasters had predicated. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, his historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate （5.6% in August）has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
67. From the passage we learn that .
［A］ there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates
［B］ economy will always follow certain models
［C］ the economic situation is better than expected
［D］ economists had foreseen the present economic situation
68. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?
［A］ Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car
［B］ An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation
［C］ A high unemployment rate will result from inflation
［D］ Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy
69. The sentence “This is no flash in the pan” （Line 5, Paragraph 3）means that .
［A］ the low inflation rate will last for some time
［B］ the inflation rate will soon rise
［C］ the inflation will disappear quickly
［D］ there is no inflation at present
70. The passage shows that the author isthe present situation.
［A］ critical of［B］ puzzled by［C］ disappointed at［D］ amazed at
核心詞匯：
analogy［E5nAlEdVi］n.類似，相似，類比，類推（ana一樣+log＋y名詞后綴→說的一樣→類比）
boast［bEust］v.自夸,夸耀n.自夸,大話
defect［di5fekt9 5di:fekt］n.過失;缺點(diǎn);不足（de向下+fect→往下做→過失）
flash［flAF］n./a.閃光(的)v.發(fā)閃光,閃亮;閃現(xiàn)
mild［maild］a.溫和的,味淡的,不含有害物質(zhì)的
monetary［5mQnitEri］a.金融的,貨幣的←monet+ary，monet=money，ary形容詞后綴
percentage［pE5sentidV］n.百分?jǐn)?shù),百分率,百分比（percent+age名詞后綴→百分率）
poll［pEul］n.民意測驗(yàn);(pl.)政治選舉v.獲得……選票.原指“人頭”（head），“根據(jù)人頭統(tǒng)計選票”。poll表“人頭”可這樣記：p=b（因?yàn)閷ΨQ字母可替換），o=a（因?yàn)樵糇帜缚商鎿Q），故poll=ball，人的頭像“球”
precise［pri5sais］a.精確的(pre+cise)，pre在前，cise（=cide）詞根“切”，于是“在前面切”→知道切多少的→精確的
rear［riE］n.后面,背后,后方v.飼養(yǎng),撫養(yǎng),栽培,舉起
slack［slAk］a.懈怠的,松弛的;蕭條的n.淡季;(pl.)便褲
steer［stiE］vt.駕駛，為……操舵；引導(dǎo)vi.駕駛
thrilling［5WriliN］a.激動的；顫抖的（thrill+ing），thrill（使激動；令人激動的事），ing形容詞后綴
upend［Qp5end］v.顛倒；*（up+end）
windscreen［5windskri:n］n.擋風(fēng)玻璃(wind+screen)
難句剖析：
難句1Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes”, makes it sound like a precise science.
［分析］此句主干是“Much of the language..., makes it sound like...”。句中used to describe monetary policy是用于修飾language的定語，后面的such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” of “a touch on the brakes”是對前面的language進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步說明。
［譯文］很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，如“引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”，“讓經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，聽起來令人覺得這是一門嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)目茖W(xué)。
難句2Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
［分析］此句沒有謂語動詞，只是一個名詞性的短語。句中hence后面只是一個名詞詞組，中心詞是the analogy，后面that引導(dǎo)定語從句修飾前面的analogy。with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview and a faulty steering wheel是介詞詞組修飾前面的名詞car。
［譯文］因此，才會有人將貨幣政策的實(shí)施比作是駕駛一輛帶有黑色擋風(fēng)玻璃、后視鏡破碎及方向盤失靈的汽車。
難句3This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
［分析］此句是一個并列句，前后用分號隔開兩個子句，是遞進(jìn)關(guān)系。前一個分句中，no可以用not a代替。后面一個分句中inflation是主語，使用了被動語態(tài)的現(xiàn)在完成時態(tài)。lower是表語，than expected和in Britain and America，以及前面的over the past couple of years都是介詞短語作狀語。
［譯文］這不是曇花一現(xiàn)。在過去幾年里，英國和美國的通貨膨脹率始終低于預(yù)測水平。
難句4Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
［分析］此句主干是：“... economists argue that...”，代詞that后面是賓語從句。這個賓語從句的基本結(jié)構(gòu)為structural changes... have upended... models...，其中structural changes是主語，have upended是現(xiàn)在完成時態(tài)的謂語，models是賓語。這個賓語models后面是一個that引導(dǎo)的限制性定語從句，修飾models。
［譯文］一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)強(qiáng)有力的變化已經(jīng)打破了那個以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹之間的歷史聯(lián)系為基礎(chǔ)的舊有的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。
文章類型：社會科學(xué)——經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)——美國經(jīng)濟(jì)
這篇文章的主題通過論述美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢比預(yù)期的要好，通貨膨脹比預(yù)期的要低，進(jìn)一步說明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不一定對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生直接的影響。
試題解析：
67. 從文章中我們可以知道
［A］ 通貨膨脹與利率有直接關(guān)系。
［B］ 經(jīng)濟(jì)（的運(yùn)行）總是遵循某些模式。
［C］ 經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢比預(yù)想的好。
［D］ 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)測到了目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。
推理題【正確答案】 ［C］
第三段指出，平均通貨膨脹率也比多數(shù)預(yù)測者預(yù)測的低。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家小組稱：1995年美國平均通貨膨脹率會達(dá)3.5％左右，但是，8月份它實(shí)際降至2.6％，全年也不過3％左右；在英國和日本，平均通貨膨脹率比上年底所預(yù)測的低半個百分點(diǎn)。而且，在過去幾年里一直是如此：在英美兩國，平均通貨膨脹率一直比預(yù)測的要低。所以［C］項(xiàng)正確。
68. 依據(jù)這篇文章，下面哪個選項(xiàng)是正確的
［A］ 制定貨幣政策如同開車。
［B］ 極低的失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。
［C］ 通貨膨脹導(dǎo)致高失業(yè)率。
［D］ 利率對經(jīng)濟(jì)有直接而迅速的影響。
判斷題【正確答案】［B］
第四段末句指出，在美國的生產(chǎn)力利用率今年初達(dá)到歷史水平，其失業(yè)率已低于多數(shù)人所預(yù)測的自然失業(yè)率——過去認(rèn)為：失業(yè)率低于正常失業(yè)率時通貨膨脹率就會產(chǎn)生。所以選擇［B］項(xiàng)。
69. “This is no flash in the pan”這句話是什么意思
［A］ 低的通貨膨脹率將會持續(xù)一段時間。
［B］ 通貨膨脹將會很快上升。
［C］ 通貨膨脹將會很快消失。
［D］ 目前沒有通貨膨脹。
句子理解題【正確答案】［A］
a flash in the pan意為：“曇花一現(xiàn)”，“偶然出現(xiàn)的情況”，“This is no flash in the pan”,即這不會是轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝，而是要持續(xù)一段時間。所以選擇［A］項(xiàng)。
70. 文章顯示出作者對目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形式
［A］ 批評。［B］ 困惑（不解）。
［C］ 失望。［D］ 驚奇，認(rèn)為……不可思議。
態(tài)度題【正確答案】 ［D］
本文主要評述了目前良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢，它是由持續(xù)低的通貨膨脹率造成的，是出乎意料的情況。作者強(qiáng)調(diào)了目前形勢的始料不及的一面（尤其是第二、三、四段的描述），表達(dá)了他的驚奇，認(rèn)為其不可思議。
全文精譯：
很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，如“引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”，“讓經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，聽起來令人覺得這是一門嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)目茖W(xué)。事實(shí)遠(yuǎn)非如此。利率和通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系難以確定。在政策改變對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響前會有一段較長時間且變化不定的后滯期。因此，才會有人將貨幣政策的實(shí)施比作是駕駛一輛帶有黑色擋風(fēng)玻璃、后視鏡破碎及方向盤失靈的汽車。
第一段：指出經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的改變不一定對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響。
盡管有這么多不利因素，中央銀行家們似乎對近來的形勢有了不少值得夸耀的東西。西方七大工業(yè)國去年的平均通貨膨脹率降至僅2.3％，接近30年來的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5％。這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于許多國家在70年代和80年代早期經(jīng)歷的兩位數(shù)的膨脹率。
這也低于許多預(yù)測者預(yù)測的數(shù)字。1994年底，每月接受《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》意見調(diào)查的一組經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，美國在1995年的平均通貨膨脹率將達(dá)到3.5％。實(shí)際上，8月份就降到了2.6％。而且全年的通貨膨脹有望持續(xù)在3％左右。去年年底，英國和日本的通貨膨脹率實(shí)際上比預(yù)測的要低半個百分點(diǎn)。這不是曇花一現(xiàn)。在過去幾年里，英國和美國的通貨膨脹率始終低于預(yù)測水平。
第二、三段：比經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期要低的通貨膨脹率說明經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀令人樂觀。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對英美兩國有利的通脹率感到特別詫異，因?yàn)閭鹘y(tǒng)的計量方法表明兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎沒有生產(chǎn)蕭條的時候。比如，美國的生產(chǎn)力利用率在今年前段時間創(chuàng)歷史新高，失業(yè)率（8月份為5.6％）卻低于多數(shù)人所預(yù)測的自然失業(yè)率。而在過去，失業(yè)率低于此，通貨膨脹將會產(chǎn)生。
第四段：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家詫異于有利的通脹率。
為何通貨膨脹如此的緩和？可惜的是，這最令人震驚的解釋有一點(diǎn)缺陷。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)強(qiáng)有力的變化已經(jīng)打破了那個以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹之間的歷史聯(lián)系為基礎(chǔ)的舊有的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。
第五段：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的理論很難解釋為何通貨膨脹如此的緩和。
Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes”, makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July . This is a long way below the double digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
It is also less than most forecasters had predicated. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, his historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate （5.6% in August）has fallen bellow most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off in the past.
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have up ended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
67. From the passage we learn that .
［A］ there is a definite relationship between inflation and interest rates
［B］ economy will always follow certain models
［C］ the economic situation is better than expected
［D］ economists had foreseen the present economic situation
68. According to the passage, which of the following is TRUE?
［A］ Making monetary policies is comparable to driving a car
［B］ An extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation
［C］ A high unemployment rate will result from inflation
［D］ Interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy
69. The sentence “This is no flash in the pan” （Line 5, Paragraph 3）means that .
［A］ the low inflation rate will last for some time
［B］ the inflation rate will soon rise
［C］ the inflation will disappear quickly
［D］ there is no inflation at present
70. The passage shows that the author isthe present situation.
［A］ critical of［B］ puzzled by［C］ disappointed at［D］ amazed at
核心詞匯：
analogy［E5nAlEdVi］n.類似，相似，類比，類推（ana一樣+log＋y名詞后綴→說的一樣→類比）
boast［bEust］v.自夸,夸耀n.自夸,大話
defect［di5fekt9 5di:fekt］n.過失;缺點(diǎn);不足（de向下+fect→往下做→過失）
flash［flAF］n./a.閃光(的)v.發(fā)閃光,閃亮;閃現(xiàn)
mild［maild］a.溫和的,味淡的,不含有害物質(zhì)的
monetary［5mQnitEri］a.金融的,貨幣的←monet+ary，monet=money，ary形容詞后綴
percentage［pE5sentidV］n.百分?jǐn)?shù),百分率,百分比（percent+age名詞后綴→百分率）
poll［pEul］n.民意測驗(yàn);(pl.)政治選舉v.獲得……選票.原指“人頭”（head），“根據(jù)人頭統(tǒng)計選票”。poll表“人頭”可這樣記：p=b（因?yàn)閷ΨQ字母可替換），o=a（因?yàn)樵糇帜缚商鎿Q），故poll=ball，人的頭像“球”
precise［pri5sais］a.精確的(pre+cise)，pre在前，cise（=cide）詞根“切”，于是“在前面切”→知道切多少的→精確的
rear［riE］n.后面,背后,后方v.飼養(yǎng),撫養(yǎng),栽培,舉起
slack［slAk］a.懈怠的,松弛的;蕭條的n.淡季;(pl.)便褲
steer［stiE］vt.駕駛，為……操舵；引導(dǎo)vi.駕駛
thrilling［5WriliN］a.激動的；顫抖的（thrill+ing），thrill（使激動；令人激動的事），ing形容詞后綴
upend［Qp5end］v.顛倒；*（up+end）
windscreen［5windskri:n］n.擋風(fēng)玻璃(wind+screen)
難句剖析：
難句1Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes”, makes it sound like a precise science.
［分析］此句主干是“Much of the language..., makes it sound like...”。句中used to describe monetary policy是用于修飾language的定語，后面的such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” of “a touch on the brakes”是對前面的language進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步說明。
［譯文］很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，如“引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”，“讓經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，聽起來令人覺得這是一門嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)目茖W(xué)。
難句2Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
［分析］此句沒有謂語動詞，只是一個名詞性的短語。句中hence后面只是一個名詞詞組，中心詞是the analogy，后面that引導(dǎo)定語從句修飾前面的analogy。with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rearview and a faulty steering wheel是介詞詞組修飾前面的名詞car。
［譯文］因此，才會有人將貨幣政策的實(shí)施比作是駕駛一輛帶有黑色擋風(fēng)玻璃、后視鏡破碎及方向盤失靈的汽車。
難句3This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
［分析］此句是一個并列句，前后用分號隔開兩個子句，是遞進(jìn)關(guān)系。前一個分句中，no可以用not a代替。后面一個分句中inflation是主語，使用了被動語態(tài)的現(xiàn)在完成時態(tài)。lower是表語，than expected和in Britain and America，以及前面的over the past couple of years都是介詞短語作狀語。
［譯文］這不是曇花一現(xiàn)。在過去幾年里，英國和美國的通貨膨脹率始終低于預(yù)測水平。
難句4Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
［分析］此句主干是：“... economists argue that...”，代詞that后面是賓語從句。這個賓語從句的基本結(jié)構(gòu)為structural changes... have upended... models...，其中structural changes是主語，have upended是現(xiàn)在完成時態(tài)的謂語，models是賓語。這個賓語models后面是一個that引導(dǎo)的限制性定語從句，修飾models。
［譯文］一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)強(qiáng)有力的變化已經(jīng)打破了那個以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹之間的歷史聯(lián)系為基礎(chǔ)的舊有的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。
文章類型：社會科學(xué)——經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)——美國經(jīng)濟(jì)
這篇文章的主題通過論述美國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢比預(yù)期的要好，通貨膨脹比預(yù)期的要低，進(jìn)一步說明經(jīng)濟(jì)政策不一定對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生直接的影響。
試題解析：
67. 從文章中我們可以知道
［A］ 通貨膨脹與利率有直接關(guān)系。
［B］ 經(jīng)濟(jì)（的運(yùn)行）總是遵循某些模式。
［C］ 經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢比預(yù)想的好。
［D］ 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們預(yù)測到了目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。
推理題【正確答案】 ［C］
第三段指出，平均通貨膨脹率也比多數(shù)預(yù)測者預(yù)測的低。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家小組稱：1995年美國平均通貨膨脹率會達(dá)3.5％左右，但是，8月份它實(shí)際降至2.6％，全年也不過3％左右；在英國和日本，平均通貨膨脹率比上年底所預(yù)測的低半個百分點(diǎn)。而且，在過去幾年里一直是如此：在英美兩國，平均通貨膨脹率一直比預(yù)測的要低。所以［C］項(xiàng)正確。
68. 依據(jù)這篇文章，下面哪個選項(xiàng)是正確的
［A］ 制定貨幣政策如同開車。
［B］ 極低的失業(yè)率會導(dǎo)致通貨膨脹。
［C］ 通貨膨脹導(dǎo)致高失業(yè)率。
［D］ 利率對經(jīng)濟(jì)有直接而迅速的影響。
判斷題【正確答案】［B］
第四段末句指出，在美國的生產(chǎn)力利用率今年初達(dá)到歷史水平，其失業(yè)率已低于多數(shù)人所預(yù)測的自然失業(yè)率——過去認(rèn)為：失業(yè)率低于正常失業(yè)率時通貨膨脹率就會產(chǎn)生。所以選擇［B］項(xiàng)。
69. “This is no flash in the pan”這句話是什么意思
［A］ 低的通貨膨脹率將會持續(xù)一段時間。
［B］ 通貨膨脹將會很快上升。
［C］ 通貨膨脹將會很快消失。
［D］ 目前沒有通貨膨脹。
句子理解題【正確答案】［A］
a flash in the pan意為：“曇花一現(xiàn)”，“偶然出現(xiàn)的情況”，“This is no flash in the pan”,即這不會是轉(zhuǎn)瞬即逝，而是要持續(xù)一段時間。所以選擇［A］項(xiàng)。
70. 文章顯示出作者對目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形式
［A］ 批評。［B］ 困惑（不解）。
［C］ 失望。［D］ 驚奇，認(rèn)為……不可思議。
態(tài)度題【正確答案】 ［D］
本文主要評述了目前良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢，它是由持續(xù)低的通貨膨脹率造成的，是出乎意料的情況。作者強(qiáng)調(diào)了目前形勢的始料不及的一面（尤其是第二、三、四段的描述），表達(dá)了他的驚奇，認(rèn)為其不可思議。
全文精譯：
很多用來描述貨幣政策的詞，如“引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸”，“讓經(jīng)濟(jì)剎車”，聽起來令人覺得這是一門嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)目茖W(xué)。事實(shí)遠(yuǎn)非如此。利率和通貨膨脹之間的關(guān)系難以確定。在政策改變對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響前會有一段較長時間且變化不定的后滯期。因此，才會有人將貨幣政策的實(shí)施比作是駕駛一輛帶有黑色擋風(fēng)玻璃、后視鏡破碎及方向盤失靈的汽車。
第一段：指出經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的改變不一定對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響。
盡管有這么多不利因素，中央銀行家們似乎對近來的形勢有了不少值得夸耀的東西。西方七大工業(yè)國去年的平均通貨膨脹率降至僅2.3％，接近30年來的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5％。這遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于許多國家在70年代和80年代早期經(jīng)歷的兩位數(shù)的膨脹率。
這也低于許多預(yù)測者預(yù)測的數(shù)字。1994年底，每月接受《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》意見調(diào)查的一組經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，美國在1995年的平均通貨膨脹率將達(dá)到3.5％。實(shí)際上，8月份就降到了2.6％。而且全年的通貨膨脹有望持續(xù)在3％左右。去年年底，英國和日本的通貨膨脹率實(shí)際上比預(yù)測的要低半個百分點(diǎn)。這不是曇花一現(xiàn)。在過去幾年里，英國和美國的通貨膨脹率始終低于預(yù)測水平。
第二、三段：比經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期要低的通貨膨脹率說明經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀令人樂觀。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對英美兩國有利的通脹率感到特別詫異，因?yàn)閭鹘y(tǒng)的計量方法表明兩國經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是美國經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎沒有生產(chǎn)蕭條的時候。比如，美國的生產(chǎn)力利用率在今年前段時間創(chuàng)歷史新高，失業(yè)率（8月份為5.6％）卻低于多數(shù)人所預(yù)測的自然失業(yè)率。而在過去，失業(yè)率低于此，通貨膨脹將會產(chǎn)生。
第四段：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家詫異于有利的通脹率。
為何通貨膨脹如此的緩和？可惜的是，這最令人震驚的解釋有一點(diǎn)缺陷。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)強(qiáng)有力的變化已經(jīng)打破了那個以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和通貨膨脹之間的歷史聯(lián)系為基礎(chǔ)的舊有的經(jīng)濟(jì)模式。
第五段：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的理論很難解釋為何通貨膨脹如此的緩和。