The impact of global warming could be twice as severe as the worst scenario feared by United Nations scientists, the world's largest climate-modelling experiment has shown.
Average temperatures could rise by 11C (20F) to reach highs that would change the face of the globe, researchers who have run 60,000 computer simulations of climate change said yesterday.
The conclusions suggest that forecasts by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may be much too conservative. In the worst case, the world would eventually heat up by almost double the maximum increase envisaged by the panel. The IPCC's latest report predicted that temperatures will rise by between 1.4C (2.5F) and 5.8C (10.4F) by 2100.
A world 11C warmer than it is today would be unrecognisable: while records show that the planet has been hotter than it is today for about 80 per cent of its history, there is no evidence that it has ever been more than about 7C warmer.
Although it would take hundreds of years for the full effects to be felt, the polar ice caps eventually would melt completely, causing sea levels to rise by 70m to 100m (230ft to 330ft). Coastal and low-lying cities such as London and New York would be submerged.
As the 11C figure is a global average, temperatures would be expected to climb even further in some regions.
David Stainforth, of the University of Oxford, the study's chief scientist, said: "When I start to look at these figures, I get very worried about them. An 11-degree warmed world would be a dramatically different world."
世界上的氣象模擬試驗(yàn)顯示，全球變暖影響比聯(lián)合國(guó)科學(xué)家們擔(dān)心的最糟糕的情況還要嚴(yán)重兩倍。
昨天（1月26日），使用6萬臺(tái)計(jì)算機(jī)模擬氣候變化的研究者們說，全球平均氣溫可能會(huì)升高11攝氏度（20華氏度），高溫將改變地球表面。
這些結(jié)論表明聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)對(duì)于的氣候變化預(yù)測(cè)可能過于保守。最糟糕的情況是，全球溫度最終將比該委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)的增長(zhǎng)提高將近2倍。政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)的最新報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，到2100年（全球）氣溫將升高1.4攝氏度（2.5華氏度）到5.8攝氏度(10.4華氏度)。
溫度比現(xiàn)在高11攝氏度的地球?qū)⒆兊拿婺咳?。雖然有記錄顯示在歷80%的時(shí)間里，地球表面的溫度都比現(xiàn)在高，但從沒有比現(xiàn)在高出7攝氏度的。
雖然要幾百年時(shí)間才能感受到升溫對(duì)各方面的影響，極地冰帽最終將完全融化，使海平面升高70到80米（230到330英尺）。倫敦、紐約等沿海和低洼城市將被海水淹沒。
（升溫）11攝氏度僅是全球的平均數(shù)字，在局部地區(qū)升溫幅度將更大。
牛津大學(xué)負(fù)責(zé)該項(xiàng)研究的科學(xué)家大衛(wèi)·斯坦福斯說：“當(dāng)我開始研究這些數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，我非常擔(dān)憂。溫度比現(xiàn)在高11度的地球?qū)⑹且粋€(gè)完全不同的世界?！?BR>
Average temperatures could rise by 11C (20F) to reach highs that would change the face of the globe, researchers who have run 60,000 computer simulations of climate change said yesterday.
The conclusions suggest that forecasts by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may be much too conservative. In the worst case, the world would eventually heat up by almost double the maximum increase envisaged by the panel. The IPCC's latest report predicted that temperatures will rise by between 1.4C (2.5F) and 5.8C (10.4F) by 2100.
A world 11C warmer than it is today would be unrecognisable: while records show that the planet has been hotter than it is today for about 80 per cent of its history, there is no evidence that it has ever been more than about 7C warmer.
Although it would take hundreds of years for the full effects to be felt, the polar ice caps eventually would melt completely, causing sea levels to rise by 70m to 100m (230ft to 330ft). Coastal and low-lying cities such as London and New York would be submerged.
As the 11C figure is a global average, temperatures would be expected to climb even further in some regions.
David Stainforth, of the University of Oxford, the study's chief scientist, said: "When I start to look at these figures, I get very worried about them. An 11-degree warmed world would be a dramatically different world."
世界上的氣象模擬試驗(yàn)顯示，全球變暖影響比聯(lián)合國(guó)科學(xué)家們擔(dān)心的最糟糕的情況還要嚴(yán)重兩倍。
昨天（1月26日），使用6萬臺(tái)計(jì)算機(jī)模擬氣候變化的研究者們說，全球平均氣溫可能會(huì)升高11攝氏度（20華氏度），高溫將改變地球表面。
這些結(jié)論表明聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)對(duì)于的氣候變化預(yù)測(cè)可能過于保守。最糟糕的情況是，全球溫度最終將比該委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)的增長(zhǎng)提高將近2倍。政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)的最新報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，到2100年（全球）氣溫將升高1.4攝氏度（2.5華氏度）到5.8攝氏度(10.4華氏度)。
溫度比現(xiàn)在高11攝氏度的地球?qū)⒆兊拿婺咳?。雖然有記錄顯示在歷80%的時(shí)間里，地球表面的溫度都比現(xiàn)在高，但從沒有比現(xiàn)在高出7攝氏度的。
雖然要幾百年時(shí)間才能感受到升溫對(duì)各方面的影響，極地冰帽最終將完全融化，使海平面升高70到80米（230到330英尺）。倫敦、紐約等沿海和低洼城市將被海水淹沒。
（升溫）11攝氏度僅是全球的平均數(shù)字，在局部地區(qū)升溫幅度將更大。
牛津大學(xué)負(fù)責(zé)該項(xiàng)研究的科學(xué)家大衛(wèi)·斯坦福斯說：“當(dāng)我開始研究這些數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，我非常擔(dān)憂。溫度比現(xiàn)在高11度的地球?qū)⑹且粋€(gè)完全不同的世界?！?BR>