Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return？ Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March， the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel， up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock， when prices quadrupled， and 1979-1980， when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time？
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth， at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere， could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe， taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price， so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were， and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation， a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy， energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software， consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP （in constant prices） rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that， if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998， this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand， oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive， and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that， unlike the rises in the 1970s， it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%， and in 1979 by almost 30%.
51. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is ________.
（A）global inflation
（B）reduction in supply
（C）fast growth in economy
（D）Iraq's suspension of exports
52. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ________.
（A）price of crude rises
（B）commodity prices rise
（C）consumption rises
（D）oil taxes rise
53. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ________.
（A）heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
（B）income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
（C）manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
（D）oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP
54. We can draw a conclusion from the text that ________.
（A）oil-price shocks are less shocking now
（B）inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks
（C）energy conservation can keep down the oil prices
（D）the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry
55. From the text we can see that the writer seems ________.
（A）optimistic
（B）sensitive
（C）gloomy
（D）scared
答案及試題解析
BDDAA
51.（B）
此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度好。
本題的答題依據(jù)是第一段的第二句話，“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March， the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel， up from less than $10 last December.”看懂了這句話，這道題就很容易了。
52.（D）
此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度好。
本題的關(guān)鍵信息在第三段的第三句話“In Europe， taxes account for up to four- fifths of the retail price， so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.” 意思是說：在歐洲，汽油的零售價中稅占到五分之四，因此稅的增加會導(dǎo)致汽油價格的（成比例）猛漲，而原油價格的變化帶來的影響不會很大。
53.（D）
此題較易，區(qū)分度很好。
本題的答題依據(jù)是第四段中的下面這句話 “The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that， if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998， this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25% -0.5% of GDP.”這是一道比較容易的題。
54.（A）
此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度很好。
本題的答題依據(jù)是全文的最后一段，強調(diào)這次油價上漲與20世紀(jì)70年代的上漲不同，也就是沒有70年代的那一次那么可怕。
55.（A）
此題比較容易，區(qū)分度很好。
本題是一道比較容易的題。答題依據(jù)貫穿全文，尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句話，強調(diào)人們不必擔(dān)心此次油價上漲，因為這一次的情況與20世紀(jì)70年代不同。
翻譯句子
1、In Europe， taxes account for up to four- fifths of the retail price， so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
[參考譯文]：在歐洲，稅金占到了零售價格的五分之四，因此即便是原油價格有相當(dāng)大的變化，在今大對油品零售價格的影響都比過去要不顯著得多。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]該句是一個復(fù)雜句，由兩個單句構(gòu)成，中間用so來表示前后的因果關(guān)系。
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點是一些短語和詞組。account for占…的部分；muted原意是“沉默的，被弄啞的”，在文章里的意思是“不太顯著的”；pump price油品零售價格。
2、 One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that， unlike the rises in the 1970s， it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.
[參考譯文]另外一個不應(yīng)因油價上漲而失眠的原因是，這次不像70年代的那些次上漲，它并不是在普遍的商品價格暴漲和全球需求過旺的背景之下發(fā)生的。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]本句的主句是One more reason is that……。比較復(fù)雜的是其以that引導(dǎo)的表語從句，它的主語是it，指代的是the rise in oil prices.
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點在于了解一些短語的意思：lose sleep over因…而失眠；occur against the background of……發(fā)生在…的背景之下。
補充難句翻譯
1、Strengthening economic growth， at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere， could push the price higher still in the short time. [參考譯文]：不斷加強的經(jīng)濟增長，同時隨著冬天來到北半球，有可能在短期內(nèi)使價格進一步上升。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]該句是一個含有插入成分的單句。主語是Strengthening economic growth，謂語是could push，插入成分是一個時間狀語。
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點是要首先抓住主句的基本結(jié)構(gòu)。
2、Energy conservation， a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy， energy- intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.[參考譯文]：能量儲備，轉(zhuǎn)換使用其他燃料，以及重型能量密集型工業(yè)重要性的減輕，這些因素都減少了石油的消費。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]該句是一個簡單句，只是主語復(fù)雜一點，其謂語部分是have reduced oil consumption.
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點在主語，注意它里面有三個并列成分：Energy conservation， a shift to other fuels，第三個是a decline in the importance of heavy， energy- intensive industries.
3、The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that， if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998， this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP.[參考譯文]OECD在其最近的《經(jīng)濟隙望》中估計，如果石油價格與1998年的每桶13美元相比在一年中平均為每桶22美元，這也只會給富裕的經(jīng)濟體的石油進口賬單上增加GDP的O.25%到0.5%.
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]本句的主句是The OECD estimates…… that，本句復(fù)雜的地方在其賓語部分，里面有一個條件狀語 if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998，而主句是后面的部分，其中的主語this指代的是if條件句。
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點在于抓住句子的主干。
語言點詳解
1.economic decline經(jīng)濟衰退[大綱詞匯]economic adj.經(jīng)濟的；經(jīng)濟學(xué)的decline n.衰退；衰敗[經(jīng)典例句]After the 911 incident，the US came into a slight economic decline.
2.crude粗糙的，未經(jīng)加工的[大綱詞匯]crude adj.天然的；未加工的；粗制的；粗魯?shù)模淮忠暗腫詞義辨析]cruel a. 心殘忍的；冷酷的[經(jīng)典例句] Crude Oil is the raw material of many chemical industries.
3 .barrel桶[大綱詞匯]barrel n.桶[經(jīng)典例句]wine is usually stored in oak barrels in the West.
4.quadruple四倍的[記憶方法]記住quadra是表示“四”的詞綴[詞義辨析]quarter四分之一
5.gloom and doom黑暗與死亡[大綱詞匯] gloom n.黑暗；陰暗doom n.毀滅；死亡[詞義辨析]注意這兩個壓韻的詞組成了一個很好的詞組。
[經(jīng)典例句] One failure in an exam certainly does not mean gloom and doom of your academic. life.6.hemisphere 心半球[大綱詞匯]hemisphere n.半球；半球體[記憶方法]這個詞是個典型的復(fù)合詞，hemi-表示“半”；而sphere表示“球體”。
7.conservation保護；保存[大綱詞匯]conservation n.保護；保存；保護區(qū)[聯(lián)想記憶]conserve v. 保存conservative adj.保守的，守舊的； n.保守派[經(jīng)典例句] Conservation of natural resource is of great important for the sustainable development.
8.swing搖擺不定[大綱詞匯]swing v.搖擺，擺動，回轉(zhuǎn)，旋轉(zhuǎn)； n.秋千，搖擺，擺動[經(jīng)典例句]swings in the oil price have great impact on transportation industry.
9.emerging intensive能源密集型的[記憶方法]energy：能源；intensive：集中的；密集的[聯(lián)想記憶]labor-intensive勞動密集型的capital-intensive資金密集型
10.emerging economy新興經(jīng)濟[大綱詞匯]emerge vi.顯現(xiàn)，浮現(xiàn)，暴露，形成[經(jīng)典例句]China now is considered as one of the major emerging economies.
11.squeeze壓榨，擠，擠榨[大綱詞匯]squeeze v.壓榨，擠，擠榨[經(jīng)典例句]You can easily squeeze water from the sponge.
12. excess過剩的[大綱詞匯]excess n.過度，剩余，無節(jié)制，超過；adj.過剩的，過分的[聯(lián)想記憶] excessive adj.過多的，過分的surplus n.剩余，過剩[經(jīng)典例句] His excess behavior leads to the break up of his marriage.
全文翻譯
過去經(jīng)濟衰落的日子會不會重來？自從石油輸出國組織在3月決定減少原油供應(yīng)，原油的價格便從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年和1979～1980年兩次可怕的石油恐慌，當(dāng)時的油價分別漲了4倍和近3倍。前兩次的油價暴漲都導(dǎo)致了兩位數(shù)的通貨膨脹和全球性的經(jīng)濟衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運來臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢？
本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這使油價又一次上揚。強勁的經(jīng)濟增長勢頭，隨著北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內(nèi)使石油價格漲得更高。
然而，我們有充分的理由預(yù)期這次油價暴漲給經(jīng)濟帶來的影響不會像20世紀(jì)70年代那么嚴(yán)重。與70年代相比，現(xiàn)在多數(shù)國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額要小很多。在歐洲，稅金在汽油零售價的比例高達4/5，因此，即使原油價格發(fā)生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那么顯著。
發(fā)達國家對石油的依賴性也不如從前，因此對油價的波動也就不會那么敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業(yè)的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗量。軟件、咨詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業(yè)少得多。發(fā)達國家國民生產(chǎn)總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經(jīng)合組織在最近一期的《經(jīng)濟展望》中估計，如果油價持續(xù)一年維持在22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這也只會使發(fā)達國家的石油進口在支出上增加 GDP的0.25％～0.5％。這還不到1974年或1980年收入減少部分的1/4.另一方面，進口石油的新興國家由于轉(zhuǎn)向了重工業(yè)，消耗能量更大，因此可能會受到石油危機的強烈影響。
另外一個不應(yīng)因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與20世紀(jì)70年代不同，這次油價上升不是發(fā)生在普遍的物價暴漲及全球需求過旺背景之下。世界上很多地區(qū)才剛剛走出經(jīng)濟衰落?！督?jīng)濟學(xué)家》的商品價格指數(shù)與一年前相比總的來說也沒有什么變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70％，而1979年也上升了近30％。
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth， at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere， could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe， taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price， so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were， and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation， a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy， energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software， consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP （in constant prices） rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that， if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998， this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand， oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive， and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that， unlike the rises in the 1970s， it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%， and in 1979 by almost 30%.
51. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is ________.
（A）global inflation
（B）reduction in supply
（C）fast growth in economy
（D）Iraq's suspension of exports
52. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ________.
（A）price of crude rises
（B）commodity prices rise
（C）consumption rises
（D）oil taxes rise
53. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ________.
（A）heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
（B）income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
（C）manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
（D）oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP
54. We can draw a conclusion from the text that ________.
（A）oil-price shocks are less shocking now
（B）inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks
（C）energy conservation can keep down the oil prices
（D）the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry
55. From the text we can see that the writer seems ________.
（A）optimistic
（B）sensitive
（C）gloomy
（D）scared
答案及試題解析
BDDAA
51.（B）
此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度好。
本題的答題依據(jù)是第一段的第二句話，“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March， the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel， up from less than $10 last December.”看懂了這句話，這道題就很容易了。
52.（D）
此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度好。
本題的關(guān)鍵信息在第三段的第三句話“In Europe， taxes account for up to four- fifths of the retail price， so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.” 意思是說：在歐洲，汽油的零售價中稅占到五分之四，因此稅的增加會導(dǎo)致汽油價格的（成比例）猛漲，而原油價格的變化帶來的影響不會很大。
53.（D）
此題較易，區(qū)分度很好。
本題的答題依據(jù)是第四段中的下面這句話 “The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that， if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998， this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25% -0.5% of GDP.”這是一道比較容易的題。
54.（A）
此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度很好。
本題的答題依據(jù)是全文的最后一段，強調(diào)這次油價上漲與20世紀(jì)70年代的上漲不同，也就是沒有70年代的那一次那么可怕。
55.（A）
此題比較容易，區(qū)分度很好。
本題是一道比較容易的題。答題依據(jù)貫穿全文，尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句話，強調(diào)人們不必擔(dān)心此次油價上漲，因為這一次的情況與20世紀(jì)70年代不同。
翻譯句子
1、In Europe， taxes account for up to four- fifths of the retail price， so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
[參考譯文]：在歐洲，稅金占到了零售價格的五分之四，因此即便是原油價格有相當(dāng)大的變化，在今大對油品零售價格的影響都比過去要不顯著得多。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]該句是一個復(fù)雜句，由兩個單句構(gòu)成，中間用so來表示前后的因果關(guān)系。
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點是一些短語和詞組。account for占…的部分；muted原意是“沉默的，被弄啞的”，在文章里的意思是“不太顯著的”；pump price油品零售價格。
2、 One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that， unlike the rises in the 1970s， it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.
[參考譯文]另外一個不應(yīng)因油價上漲而失眠的原因是，這次不像70年代的那些次上漲，它并不是在普遍的商品價格暴漲和全球需求過旺的背景之下發(fā)生的。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]本句的主句是One more reason is that……。比較復(fù)雜的是其以that引導(dǎo)的表語從句，它的主語是it，指代的是the rise in oil prices.
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點在于了解一些短語的意思：lose sleep over因…而失眠；occur against the background of……發(fā)生在…的背景之下。
補充難句翻譯
1、Strengthening economic growth， at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere， could push the price higher still in the short time. [參考譯文]：不斷加強的經(jīng)濟增長，同時隨著冬天來到北半球，有可能在短期內(nèi)使價格進一步上升。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]該句是一個含有插入成分的單句。主語是Strengthening economic growth，謂語是could push，插入成分是一個時間狀語。
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點是要首先抓住主句的基本結(jié)構(gòu)。
2、Energy conservation， a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy， energy- intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.[參考譯文]：能量儲備，轉(zhuǎn)換使用其他燃料，以及重型能量密集型工業(yè)重要性的減輕，這些因素都減少了石油的消費。
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]該句是一個簡單句，只是主語復(fù)雜一點，其謂語部分是have reduced oil consumption.
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點在主語，注意它里面有三個并列成分：Energy conservation， a shift to other fuels，第三個是a decline in the importance of heavy， energy- intensive industries.
3、The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that， if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998， this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP.[參考譯文]OECD在其最近的《經(jīng)濟隙望》中估計，如果石油價格與1998年的每桶13美元相比在一年中平均為每桶22美元，這也只會給富裕的經(jīng)濟體的石油進口賬單上增加GDP的O.25%到0.5%.
[結(jié)構(gòu)剖析]本句的主句是The OECD estimates…… that，本句復(fù)雜的地方在其賓語部分，里面有一個條件狀語 if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year， compared with $13 in 1998，而主句是后面的部分，其中的主語this指代的是if條件句。
[閱讀重點]本句閱讀的重點在于抓住句子的主干。
語言點詳解
1.economic decline經(jīng)濟衰退[大綱詞匯]economic adj.經(jīng)濟的；經(jīng)濟學(xué)的decline n.衰退；衰敗[經(jīng)典例句]After the 911 incident，the US came into a slight economic decline.
2.crude粗糙的，未經(jīng)加工的[大綱詞匯]crude adj.天然的；未加工的；粗制的；粗魯?shù)模淮忠暗腫詞義辨析]cruel a. 心殘忍的；冷酷的[經(jīng)典例句] Crude Oil is the raw material of many chemical industries.
3 .barrel桶[大綱詞匯]barrel n.桶[經(jīng)典例句]wine is usually stored in oak barrels in the West.
4.quadruple四倍的[記憶方法]記住quadra是表示“四”的詞綴[詞義辨析]quarter四分之一
5.gloom and doom黑暗與死亡[大綱詞匯] gloom n.黑暗；陰暗doom n.毀滅；死亡[詞義辨析]注意這兩個壓韻的詞組成了一個很好的詞組。
[經(jīng)典例句] One failure in an exam certainly does not mean gloom and doom of your academic. life.6.hemisphere 心半球[大綱詞匯]hemisphere n.半球；半球體[記憶方法]這個詞是個典型的復(fù)合詞，hemi-表示“半”；而sphere表示“球體”。
7.conservation保護；保存[大綱詞匯]conservation n.保護；保存；保護區(qū)[聯(lián)想記憶]conserve v. 保存conservative adj.保守的，守舊的； n.保守派[經(jīng)典例句] Conservation of natural resource is of great important for the sustainable development.
8.swing搖擺不定[大綱詞匯]swing v.搖擺，擺動，回轉(zhuǎn)，旋轉(zhuǎn)； n.秋千，搖擺，擺動[經(jīng)典例句]swings in the oil price have great impact on transportation industry.
9.emerging intensive能源密集型的[記憶方法]energy：能源；intensive：集中的；密集的[聯(lián)想記憶]labor-intensive勞動密集型的capital-intensive資金密集型
10.emerging economy新興經(jīng)濟[大綱詞匯]emerge vi.顯現(xiàn)，浮現(xiàn)，暴露，形成[經(jīng)典例句]China now is considered as one of the major emerging economies.
11.squeeze壓榨，擠，擠榨[大綱詞匯]squeeze v.壓榨，擠，擠榨[經(jīng)典例句]You can easily squeeze water from the sponge.
12. excess過剩的[大綱詞匯]excess n.過度，剩余，無節(jié)制，超過；adj.過剩的，過分的[聯(lián)想記憶] excessive adj.過多的，過分的surplus n.剩余，過剩[經(jīng)典例句] His excess behavior leads to the break up of his marriage.
全文翻譯
過去經(jīng)濟衰落的日子會不會重來？自從石油輸出國組織在3月決定減少原油供應(yīng)，原油的價格便從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年和1979～1980年兩次可怕的石油恐慌，當(dāng)時的油價分別漲了4倍和近3倍。前兩次的油價暴漲都導(dǎo)致了兩位數(shù)的通貨膨脹和全球性的經(jīng)濟衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運來臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢？
本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這使油價又一次上揚。強勁的經(jīng)濟增長勢頭，隨著北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內(nèi)使石油價格漲得更高。
然而，我們有充分的理由預(yù)期這次油價暴漲給經(jīng)濟帶來的影響不會像20世紀(jì)70年代那么嚴(yán)重。與70年代相比，現(xiàn)在多數(shù)國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額要小很多。在歐洲，稅金在汽油零售價的比例高達4/5，因此，即使原油價格發(fā)生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那么顯著。
發(fā)達國家對石油的依賴性也不如從前，因此對油價的波動也就不會那么敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業(yè)的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗量。軟件、咨詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業(yè)少得多。發(fā)達國家國民生產(chǎn)總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經(jīng)合組織在最近一期的《經(jīng)濟展望》中估計，如果油價持續(xù)一年維持在22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這也只會使發(fā)達國家的石油進口在支出上增加 GDP的0.25％～0.5％。這還不到1974年或1980年收入減少部分的1/4.另一方面，進口石油的新興國家由于轉(zhuǎn)向了重工業(yè)，消耗能量更大，因此可能會受到石油危機的強烈影響。
另外一個不應(yīng)因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與20世紀(jì)70年代不同，這次油價上升不是發(fā)生在普遍的物價暴漲及全球需求過旺背景之下。世界上很多地區(qū)才剛剛走出經(jīng)濟衰落?！督?jīng)濟學(xué)家》的商品價格指數(shù)與一年前相比總的來說也沒有什么變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70％，而1979年也上升了近30％。