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Venezuelan government debt——Running out of time
委內(nèi)瑞拉國(guó)債：時(shí)間所剩無(wú)幾
A devastating spiral continues.
一場(chǎng)持續(xù)性災(zāi)難。
To most investors, Venezuela looks less like a market than a mess.
對(duì)于大多說(shuō)投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，委內(nèi)瑞拉不能稱為市場(chǎng)，只能說(shuō)是一片混亂。
The IMF expects output to shrink by 10% this year and inflation to exceed 700%.
國(guó)際基金貨幣組織預(yù)計(jì)本年度該國(guó)年產(chǎn)量將縮水10%，通貨膨脹率超過(guò)700%。
As the bolivar’s value has plunged, multinational firms have announced billions of dollars of write-downs.
因委內(nèi)瑞拉幣值大幅貶值，跨國(guó)公司宣稱數(shù)以十億資產(chǎn)縮水。
For much of this year, however, some strong-stomached investors have scented an opportunity.
然而一些膽大的投資者在今年大半年的時(shí)間里都嗅到了都投資機(jī)會(huì)。
They rushed to buy bonds issued by the government and by the state-owned oil company, PDVSA.
他們將政府和委內(nèi)瑞拉國(guó)家石油公司(PDVSA)發(fā)行的債券搶售一空。
They have been rewarded handsomely.
如今他們都收獲頗豐。
Venezuelan government bonds have outperformed other emerging-market sovereign bonds tracked by JP Morgan.
據(jù)摩根銀行的跟蹤調(diào)查，委內(nèi)瑞拉政府債券比較其他新興市場(chǎng)的主權(quán)債券在市場(chǎng)上的表現(xiàn)還要好。
The government, led by Nicolas Maduro, boasts it has never missed a debt payment.
由馬杜羅領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的委內(nèi)瑞拉政府表示國(guó)家從未拖欠債務(wù)。
Indeed he has given priority to debt service over other urgent needs, such as importing food.
事實(shí)上，相比進(jìn)口食物等緊急需求，馬杜羅確實(shí)將債務(wù)放到了第一位。
Mr. Maduro is keen not to scare off the foreign creditors sorely needed by PDVSA.
委內(nèi)瑞拉石油公司急需外資，馬杜羅不希望因債務(wù)嚇跑國(guó)外債權(quán)人。
However, Venezuela looks increasingly stretched.
然而委內(nèi)瑞拉的債務(wù)償還起來(lái)也是日益捉襟見肘。
Two big PDVSA payments, of $1 billion and $2 billion, are due on October 28th and November 2nd.
委內(nèi)瑞拉石油公司的兩大筆款項(xiàng)(一筆10億美元，另一筆20億美元)將分別在10月28日和11月2日到期。
Last month the company proposed a bond swap to ease a looming payments crunch: investors holding PDVSA bonds maturing in 2017 (which are not backed by a full sovereign guarantee) ,would exchange them for bonds maturing in 2020.
上月該公司提議用債券互換來(lái)緩解即將到來(lái)的支付危機(jī)：持有2017年即將到期債券(且沒有完整的主權(quán)擔(dān)保的)持有人可以將其換成2020年到期的新債券。
This would buy Venezuela time, perhaps in the hope that oil prices rise.
這一舉措將給委內(nèi)瑞拉贏得一些時(shí)間，或許此舉寄希望于未來(lái)油價(jià)上漲。
Not so fast.
不過(guò)，事情進(jìn)展沒有那么快。
Even sweetened terms for the swap have failed to lure investors.
優(yōu)惠政策也未能吸引投資者。
PDVSA has four times delayed the deadline for the exchange, most recently to October 21st.
委內(nèi)瑞拉國(guó)有石油公司已經(jīng)四次延緩交易截止日期了，最后一次是延緩到11月21日。
PDVSA warned in a press release on October 17th that if its offer is not accepted, “it could be difficult” to make its scheduled payments.
10月17日該公司對(duì)媒體表示倘若沒人愿意投資，他們可能很難按期付款。
Francisco Velasco of Exotix, a brokerage specializing in frontier markets, says investors face a prisoner’s dilemma.
Exotic是一家專營(yíng)前沿市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)紀(jì)公司，該工司的Francisco Velasco表示投資者陷入了囚徒困境。
They could aGREe to a swap, with terms that are less than ideal, in the hope that other investors will do the same.
他們會(huì)同意一次掉期交易，條件沒那么理想，希望其他的投資者也一樣做。
Or they could decline PDVSA’s offer. But that would make default ever more likely.
也許他們會(huì)減少PDVSA的開價(jià)。但是那樣的話拖欠更可能發(fā)生。
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