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題目
The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
翻譯
以下文字出自Sartorian公司(生產(chǎn)男士服裝)新上任的副總裁的備忘錄：
“五年前，當(dāng)我們?cè)讷@取可靠的高質(zhì)量羊毛毛料的供貨渠道方面存在困難的時(shí)候，我們停止了羊毛外衣的生產(chǎn)?，F(xiàn)在，我們有了新的毛料供應(yīng)商，我們應(yīng)該重新開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)。這種外衣應(yīng)該會(huì)賣(mài)得很好：因?yàn)槲覀円呀?jīng)五年沒(méi)有供應(yīng)羊毛外衣了，而且由于我們的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手已不再生產(chǎn)羊毛外衣，消費(fèi)者將有很迫切的需求。而且，由于過(guò)去五年中多數(shù)種類的服裝價(jià)格每年都在上漲，消費(fèi)者應(yīng)該愿意花比五年前高的多的價(jià)格購(gòu)買(mǎi)羊毛外衣，從而我們公司的利潤(rùn)將會(huì)上升。”
寫(xiě)一篇文章，闡述需要哪些具體的證據(jù)來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)這個(gè)論證過(guò)程，并解釋這些證據(jù)如何削弱或強(qiáng)化這個(gè)論證過(guò)程。
分析
前提：our company profits will increase 我們公司的利潤(rùn)將會(huì)上升
結(jié)論：we should resume production 我們應(yīng)該重新開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)
論據(jù)：
1. five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats
[譯]五年前，當(dāng)我們?cè)讷@取可靠的高質(zhì)量羊毛毛料的渠道方面存在困難的時(shí)候，我們停止了羊毛外衣的生產(chǎn)
2. now that we have a new fabric supplier
[譯]現(xiàn)在有了新的毛料供應(yīng)商
3. we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand
[譯]我們已經(jīng)五年沒(méi)有供應(yīng)羊毛外衣了，而且由于我們的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手已不再生產(chǎn)羊毛外衣，消費(fèi)者將有很迫切的需求
4. this coat should sell very well
[譯]這種外衣應(yīng)該賣(mài)得很好
5. since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago
[譯]由于過(guò)去五年中多數(shù)種類的服裝價(jià)格每年都在上漲，消費(fèi)者應(yīng)該愿意花比五年前高的多的價(jià)格購(gòu)買(mǎi)羊毛外衣
提綱(可攻擊點(diǎn))
1、除了毛料供應(yīng)問(wèn)題，還有哪些其他因素(比如，市場(chǎng)需求、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、客戶支付能力等)對(duì)生產(chǎn)銷售情況有影響?
2、僅根據(jù)Sartorian公司的主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手不再生產(chǎn)能否判斷消費(fèi)者對(duì)羊毛外衣有很迫切的需求?都有哪些因素(比如：羊毛外衣的銷量不佳、羊毛外衣的利潤(rùn)太少，等)會(huì)導(dǎo)致其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手停止生產(chǎn)?
3、現(xiàn)在的服裝市場(chǎng)和五年前相比，變化是否明顯?顧客是否愿意付比五年前高的價(jià)格來(lái)購(gòu)買(mǎi)羊毛外衣?
4、即使消費(fèi)者對(duì)羊毛外衣有迫切需求，并且羊毛外衣的價(jià)格也很高，重新生產(chǎn)羊毛外衣公司的利潤(rùn)就一定能提高嗎?公司的利潤(rùn)與哪些因素(比如：成本、價(jià)格、銷售量，等)有關(guān)?
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